Braves Statistical Analysis

Here is an article about which teams have been lucky and which ones unlucky so far.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-traps-that-the-twins-need-to-avoid/

While we have not been crazy lucky like the Twins, we are one of the teams that has won more games than we should--to the tune of an estimated four games.

We finished May at .500. Two games below in April and two above in May.

We are not quite the same team we were in April or even May. We have improved the rotation by replacing Stults and Cahill with Foltynevich and Baby Harang. We have improved center by replacing EYJr with Maybin. And we just upgraded third by trading for Uribe. So even if we stop being lucky we have a team that is now close to a .500 team. To be above .500 we need one of two things to happen or a combination of the two. More luck or the guys on the team out-performing their projections. We are a plausible playoff team. Which is not the same as a probable playoff team.
 
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I think the team is going to improve overall. Kelly Johnson should improve our production in LF and the starting pitching looks like it has the chance to be pretty special.

Just need to find a way to plug the holes in the bullpen until McKirkan and Viz come back. Thats the glaring hole on the team that needs to be addressed.

Ernesto Frieri was just DFA'd today. I'd take a flier on him.
 
thethe said:
I think the team is going to improve overall. Kelly Johnson should improve our production in LF and the starting pitching looks like it has the chance to be pretty special.

Just need to find a way to plug the holes in the bullpen until McKirkan and Viz come back. Thats the glaring hole on the team that needs to be addressed.

Ernesto Frieri was just DFA'd today. I'd take a flier on him.
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The thing is if our luck turns neutral even with a better team our record might not be as good going forward. I'm happy we are a game above .500, but I think we need to be clear-eyed about what has happened so far to get us there.
 
nsacpi said:
The thing is if our luck turns neutral even with a better team our record might not be as good going forward. I'm happy we are a game above .500, but I think we need to be clear-eyed about what has happened so far to get us there.
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Sometimes you can just have a charmed season. I think assessing whether a team has been fluky is valid but predicting whether it will continue or not is a more tricky exercise. 1 season is still a relatively small sample size. I just believe in the arms that we are seeing right now in the starting rotation and if you can get 6-8 innings of solid starting pitching a night that can take you a long way over a full season.
 
thethe said:
Sometimes you can just have a charmed season. I think assessing whether a team has been fluky is valid but predicting whether it will continue or not is a more tricky exercise. 1 season is still a relatively small sample size. I just believe in the arms that we are seeing right now in the starting rotation and if you can get 6-8 innings of solid starting pitching a night that can take you a long way over a full season.
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Every year there is a team or two that outperforms (usually with a bit of luck) by quite a bit. If you are a .500 team to start with, that gets you far. Last year it was the Orioles and Royals. However, if you start out as a team that projects to win 70-75 games, having a charmed season gets you to .500. I would have liked to start the season with a more competitive team.
 
thethe said:
Sometimes you can just have a charmed season. I think assessing whether a team has been fluky is valid but predicting whether it will continue or not is a more tricky exercise. 1 season is still a relatively small sample size. I just believe in the arms that we are seeing right now in the starting rotation and if you can get 6-8 innings of solid starting pitching a night that can take you a long way over a full season.
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You are overating our starting pitching staff.

The following is our current five starters by FIP and xFIP:

FIP:
Wood 3.03
Miller 3.35
Perez 3.49
Folty 3.68
Teheran 5.52

xFIP:
Perez 3.61
Miller 3.86
Wood 3.91
Folty 4.10
Teheran 4.51

I fully expect Miller/Teheran to be better than though numbers, but we are going to see a huge regression in ERA from Miller. For whatever reason, our starting staff have been extremely fortunate in limiting flyballs from going out of the park. (all except Teheran). The following is HR/FB.....and no, this is not something pitchers have control over.

HR/FB:
Wood 3.5%
Miller 6.6%
Folty 8.3%
Perez 9.1%
Teheran 17.9%

The starting staff is solid, but it's not one of the top staffs in the National League. Its certainly not one capable of saying you are going to get 6-8 innings of good starting pitching every single night. The staff is below average now, but I do expect it to be roughly around the NL average. Chances are we will see improvement from Teheran and regression from Miller and Wood.
 
Ok GF. I will take the optimistic route and realize these are still all young kids with tremendous potential. Not sure about Perez yet but the others are all TOR type arms (1-2's). I think they will continue to improve as the season progresses.
 
gilesfan said:
For whatever reason, our starting staff have been extremely fortunate in limiting flyballs from going out of the park. (all except Teheran). The following is HR/FB.....and no, this is not something pitchers have control over.

HR/FB:
Wood 3.5%
Miller 6.6%
Folty 8.3%
Perez 9.1%
Teheran 17.9%
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Teheran volunteered to do this. Shows you what a great teammate he is. Veal volunteered to help him

As a staff we are at 11.6%, which ranks us 6th highest in the NL.
 
thethe said:
Ok GF. I will take the optimistic route and realize these are still all young kids with tremendous potential. Not sure about Perez yet but the others are all TOR type arms (1-2's). I think they will continue to improve as the season progresses.
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How can you not be sure about Baby Harang. Whatsdamatterwithu
 
nsacpi said:
Teheran volunteered to do this. Shows you what a great teammate he is. Veal volunteered to help him

As a staff we are at 11.6%, which ranks us 6th highest in the NL.
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Bullpen guys and Stults have enormous rates.
 
gilesfan said:
Bullpen guys and Stults have enormous rates.
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Yeah. That's the veteran leadership and being a good teammate coming through.

Flyball pitchers will have homer problems now and then. Minor had them and Ervin Santana had one horrific season (before he became more of a groundball pitcher).
 
nsacpi said:
Yeah. That's the veteran leadership and being a good teammate coming through.

Flyball pitchers will have homer problems now and then. Minor had them and Ervin Santana had one horrific season (before he became more of a groundball pitcher).
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Im not talking about amount of homers, that is a completely different point. We are talking about homers per flyball given up. Whether a guy is a groundball pitcher or a flyball pitcher probably doesn't have an affect on HR/FB.
 
Small thing

Braves are smack dab in th emiddle of the NL in stolen bases and second to last in homers. It seems like the Braves method of scoring is to BABIP the other team to death.
 
The Braves are a few BP additions and a decent bat in LF away from being a .500 team that could potentially make some noise for the final WC spot, or in the weak NL East. Gomes has continued to be solid vs LHP this year (.861 OPS), but the Braves just haven't faced many LHed starters. When KJ is healthy, a KJ/Gomes platoon in LF might just be good enough. There have been a few BP arms cut loose around the league recently, and I think the Braves need to jump all over as many of them as they can.

I think it is important to keep any promising young arm out of the MLB BP (like ManBan) to avoid being completely ruined by Fredi, so scrap heap arms from the waiver wire is probably the best source.

On a side note, JUp already has 11 SBs without being caught this year. He only had 8 SBs in both of his seasons in Atlanta after routinely swiping ~20 bases per season in Arizona. Why? Maybe the Braves could have been playing a little more "small ball" than they were, even with the old power-packed roster?
 
Walk year for J-Upt I think has something to do with it. But clearly the bravesjust don't utilize the stolen base as much as they should.

That better change when Smith and/or Peraza are up.
 
The Braves were terrible with sending guys recently. Not sure what the cause is but we saw it with Jason. When Bourn was here (probably giving him pointers and what not) he stole 20 then the year after he stole 2. I do think there's a coaching issue when it comes to base stealing with the Braves.
 
So an update.

Again sticking to the handful of players who intrigue me.

El Juan Chubbard the second - Amazing how good he's been doing. BABIP is high but solid BB and K rate, still showing power and defense. Nice. What's baffling, is that Simmons is equal to him in SB. Who fell asleep and let him steal a base?

Maybin - Worlds best salary dump. Doing everything well, BABIP is a bit high, but who cares, Everything else is solid. Only concern with him has been defense. It's been severely lacking. UZR has him at -7.9 and DRS at -11. A move to the corner could benefit him.

Jace Peterson - Basically right there. This is basically where I see him. Average could tick up a bit. But BABIP is in line with LD% power's around where I expect it, he's a good value player. Not a star, not some kind of super surprise, he's a guy who'll likely give you 1.5-3.0 WAR consistently

Jonny Gomes - Ignoring the offense which has been subpar, he should never ever ever see the field. Only used as PH and DH.

Pitching

Miller - He's been great. Good K rate, great BB rate, great HR rate. Just been great. Still out performing his peripherals but his peripherals have also improved.

Wood - Been amazing. Unlucky with a .340 BABIP, But still been really good.

Grilli - He's been really really good. Not Kimbrel great but he should be a high value asset at the deadline.

Julio - He's been improving. Still underperforming, but he's done much better as of late.BB ratea nd HR rateare un Julio but I think those will change at some point.

And lastly, the true suckitude of Donnie Veal - 6.26 K/9 4.15 BB/9 6.23 HR/9 just a massive suck.
 
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