Braves trade Mallex and Simmons to M's for Gohara and Burrows

clvclv said:
Have to admit I'm warming to the deal more and more as the surprise wears off. As one who has always been in the "Pitching Above All Else" camp, I have to admit that trading someone like Mallex (no matter how much I love him - and I'm a believer) with nowhere to play for the next 2-3 years (certainly not at his best position, anyway) when you have a more-proven guy in Ender locked up and Acuna coming for someone with a TOR ceiling and a lefty who could pitch at the back of the pen soon is pretty much a no-brainer.

Definitely doesn't mean I won't always wonder what could've been here though.
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I don't consider the fact that Mallex was blocked to be of much weight. It's a reason to entertain trading him. It's not a reason to take less value in the return. If we'd traded Mallex and gotten a clear win of a return I'd be the first one trumpeting this trade. But my problem is that I'm not sure we got enough back.

Gohara is clearly the linchpin of this deal. What he ends up being will be a huge factor in how good or bad this trade was. My problem is that I can't get a good hold on him. You have scouts proclaiming the Mariners idiots for trading him but then you have other guys who see him as a likely AA flameout. If Gohara finishes the season with an ERA of 6.50 and gets taken in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft then this trade will look terrible. And that's a real possibility.

I hope the Braves did their homework on Gohara and aren't just reacting to a few good innings in the AFL. I'm not saying he has to become an ace for the deal to make sense. But I think he needs to establish himself as a legitimate, high level pitching prospect this year. If he immediately crashes and burns then this deal will just look baffling.
 
striker42 said:
I don't consider the fact that Mallex was blocked to be of much weight. It's a reason to entertain trading him. It's not a reason to take less value in the return. If we'd traded Mallex and gotten a clear win of a return I'd be the first one trumpeting this trade. But my problem is that I'm not sure we got enough back.

Gohara is clearly the linchpin of this deal. What he ends up being will be a huge factor in how good or bad this trade was. My problem is that I can't get a good hold on him. You have scouts proclaiming the Mariners idiots for trading him but then you have other guys who see him as a likely AA flameout. If Gohara finishes the season with an ERA of 6.50 and gets taken in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft then this trade will look terrible. And that's a real possibility.

I hope the Braves did their homework on Gohara and aren't just reacting to a few good innings in the AFL. I'm not saying he has to become an ace for the deal to make sense. But I think he needs to establish himself as a legitimate, high level pitching prospect this year. If he immediately crashes and burns then this deal will just look baffling.
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true. It's also possible Mallex ends up a CF who can only hit vs RH and is 4th or 5th OF.

Gohara could hurt his arm and be done. Any injury to Mallex's lower half and he could be done.
 
Russ2dollas said:
true. It's also possible Mallex ends up a CF who can only hit vs RH and is 4th or 5th OF.

Gohara could hurt his arm and be done. Any injury to Mallex's lower half and he could be done.
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Yeah, you always have to judge a trade at two points, when it's made and how it eventually turns out. You can overpay at the time and just get lucky and have the trade workout and you can make a deal that looks great at the time but blows up in your face.

I'm not sure if we overpaid at the time we made the trade or not. I'm not sure what Gohara is. I think we'll get a clearer picture of that as this season unfolds. We might not find out what he'll ultimately be but we will discover what we have.

Mallex might end up as a 4th OFer but right now his value is pretty high. He's a major league ready OFer with a history of getting on base and as much speed as anyone in baseball.
 
Russ2dollas said:
true. It's also possible Mallex ends up a CF who can only hit vs RH and is 4th or 5th OF.

Gohara could hurt his arm and be done. Any injury to Mallex's lower half and he could be done.
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It is assinine to even suggest Mallex and Gohara are in the same realm of riskiness.

Mallex has proven beyond all doubt he is an MLB caliber player. His absolute worst case scenario is a 4th OFer with above average defense.

Gohara is 20 years old and still in A ball. He is fat and already has had shoulder issues significant enough to derail a trade. He is many times more risky than Mallex.
 
After twenty plus pages of this thread, to me this is reminiscent of the Folty trade. The obvious differences were that both Gattis and Folty had done more at higher levels and Folty had a reputation as a bit of a head case. We wanted the upside of a power arm and we gave up a player that we viewed as expendable in our long term future. Hopefully, we can hit on this roll of the dice but, on paper, it is a bit of a stretch.
 
Enscheff said:
It is assinine to even suggest Mallex and Gohara are in the same realm of riskiness.

Mallex has proven beyond all doubt he is an MLB caliber player. His absolute worst case scenario is a 4th OFer with above average defense.

Gohara is 20 years old and still in A ball. He is fat and already has had shoulder issues significant enough to derail a trade. He is many times more risky than Mallex.
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I didn't say they were the same. I was just stating that Mallex is not w/o his risks.

I think you way over state Mallex. He hit .238 with a .316 on base propped up by hitting 8th in half a year of play. He was never a top prospect. Lots of value in his defense and his defense was questioned in the minors. If he pulls a hammy he might not be anything. His speed is mitigated by replay where he always comes off the bag.

I like Mallex. If he had no value he wouldn't be able to get us a potential TOR starter or big time relief pitcher.

In 2013 Mallex was 20 and started in A ball.
 
USMA76 said:
After twenty plus pages of this thread, to me this is reminiscent of the Folty trade. The obvious differences were that both Gattis and Folty had done more at higher levels and Folty had a reputation as a bit of a head case. We wanted the upside of a power arm and we gave up a player that we viewed as expendable in our long term future. Hopefully, we can hit on this roll of the dice but, on paper, it is a bit of a stretch.
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I don't see it. Gattis had a bigger impact. Gattis' issue was if he had a position in the national league and his on base. Folty was the headliner. But Ruiz was a legit piece too. And at the time Thurman was thought of as a guy who would be a 5th starter (high floor guy). Of course when we got Ruiz he was actually thought of as a guy who could hit lefties.
 
Not digging through 21 pages, but Gohara was who the Reds wanted at the deadline for Zach Cozart. That deal fell apart, but other teams wanted Gohara. When the M's saw they could turn Smith into Smyly they jumped.
 
Enscheff said:
It is assinine to even suggest Mallex and Gohara are in the same realm of riskiness.

Mallex has proven beyond all doubt he is an MLB caliber player. His absolute worst case scenario is a 4th OFer with above average defense.

Gohara is 20 years old and still in A ball. He is fat and already has had shoulder issues significant enough to derail a trade. He is many times more risky than Mallex.
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.080/.179/.120/.299 with a -10 OPS+ in 57 PAs against LHPs just screams "MLB-caliber player", don't it???
 
Enscheff said:
It is assinine to even suggest Mallex and Gohara are in the same realm of riskiness.

Mallex has proven beyond all doubt he is an MLB caliber player. His absolute worst case scenario is a 4th OFer with above average defense.

Gohara is 20 years old and still in A ball. He is fat and already has had shoulder issues significant enough to derail a trade. He is many times more risky than Mallex.
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I hate to agree, but much of this sounds reasonable. Hopefully, it will work our way, and people can trumpet this as a "no risk, no reward" success. I don't discount the possibility that the Braves evaluators saw something in him, as far as potential, but the injury risk is a bit scary.

On the other hand, Mallex's SSS stats against lefties last year argue a bit against an absolute floor as a fourth outfielder. I do think that probably is his floor, though.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I didn't say they were the same. I was just stating that Mallex is not w/o his risks.

I think you way over state Mallex. He hit .238 with a .316 on base propped up by hitting 8th in half a year of play. He was never a top prospect. Lots of value in his defense and his defense was questioned in the minors. If he pulls a hammy he might not be anything. His speed is mitigated by replay where he always comes off the bag.

I like Mallex. If he had no value he wouldn't be able to get us a potential TOR starter or big time relief pitcher.

In 2013 Mallex was 20 and started in A ball.
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I don't think Mallex is particularly great. I think he is probably a 2+ WAR guy that plays above average defense in CF, hits at the bottom of the lineup, and is an asset while he is cheap. He posted 1 WAR in 1/3 of a season, so I have little doubt he will post ~10 WAR over his 5 remaining years of control.

My issue isn't that the Braves traded away Mallex. My issue is that they traded him away for something the organization does not need at this very moment: more "stuff" pitchers with major question marks. The Braves have quite literally put most of their eggs in that basket already, and what do they have to show for it so far? The guys who were supposed to be ready by now (Sims, Blair, Wisler, Newcomb) haven't done squat. So the answer is to double down and continue to add even more flawed pitchers?

If Mallex is truly valued as a 4th OFer (and this trade strongly suggests he is), then why trade him right now? Are the Braves hurting for arms to fill out the A ball pitching staff? Why not give Mallex a chance to prove he can be the 2+ WAR guy by getting everyday ABs at AAA? Worst case scenario is he proves to be only a 4th OFer, and his value remains exactly the same since that what's everyone already thinks he is.
 
Enscheff said:
I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are being sarcastic. Nobody can be quite that stupid, right?
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Do you ever stop and think, 'Hmm, maybe part of the reason people seem to be on me so much is because I call someone stupid in literally every post I make'?
 
Enscheff said:
I don't think Mallex is particularly great. I think he is probably a 2+ WAR guy that plays above average defense in CF, hits at the bottom of the lineup, and is an asset while he is cheap. He posted 1 WAR in 1/3 of a season, so I have little doubt he will post ~10 WAR over his 5 remaining years of control.

My issue isn't that the Braves traded away Mallex. My issue is that they traded him away for something the organization does not need at this very moment: more "stuff" pitchers with major question marks. The Braves have quite literally put most of their eggs in that basket already, and what do they have to show for it so far? The guys who were supposed to be ready by now (Sims, Blair, Wisler, Newcomb) haven't done squat. So the answer is to double down and continue to add even more flawed pitchers?

If Mallex is truly valued as a 4th OFer (and this trade strongly suggests he is), then why trade him right now? Are the Braves hurting for arms to fill out the A ball pitching staff? Why not give Mallex a chance to prove he can be the 2+ WAR guy by getting everyday ABs at AAA? Worst case scenario is he proves to be only a 4th OFer, and his value remains exactly the same since that what's everyone already thinks he is.
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B/c he wasn't going to do that in AAA. And he had to be on the 40 man.

If you want to say Mallex would be better than Kemp or Markakis from a WAR standpoint I don't think I'd argue with you. But the team clearly likes Kemp and Neck. And I think it looks like DPeterson is going to be the guy that replaces Neck.

So when was mallex going to play enough to show he could hit better or hit LH?
 
FYI fangraphs has an interview with Coppy up where he discusses these guys. You can disagree but you get some of this thoughts. They though Gohara dominated last year and will continue to do so.
 
Enscheff said:
It is assinine to even suggest Mallex and Gohara are in the same realm of riskiness.

Mallex has proven beyond all doubt he is an MLB caliber player. His absolute worst case scenario is a 4th OFer with above average defense.

Gohara is 20 years old and still in A ball. He is fat and already has had shoulder issues significant enough to derail a trade. He is many times more risky than Mallex.
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Mallex has not proven 'beyond all doubt' that he is an MLB caliber player.

I like Mallex and I think he's very likely at least a 4th OF and certainly could be more, but to suggest that there's zero chance he's worse than that doesn't seem true to me considering how little we have actually seen of him at the MLB level.
 
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