Braves Will Be Even Better In 2014

[AUTiger7222]

avg, obp, and slg are all directly related to his BABIP though which is wildly inconsistent for anybody. Take that variable out and you have these rates since 2009.

K%
2009: 15.1%
2010: 17.3%
2011: 16.9%
2012: 15.6%
2013: 16.4%

BB%
2009: 8.9%
2010: 13.1%
2011: 10.8%
2012: 9.0%
2013: 9.7%

ISO
2009: 205
2010: 184
2011: 195
2012: 169
2013: 205

All those are pretty consistent. Just your normal variation from year to year.

Now if you want to say Mac has declined from when he first came up. Sure you can say that. He had a higher average then thanks to a much lower K rate and a high BABIP a couple of years. But right now? No he's not in decline. He's pretty much been the same hitter for the last 5 years.

The reason for McCann's drop in BABIP is because teams started playing that dead shift against him and he has never adjusted to it. When McCann first came up he used the whole field as a hitter. But then he became a dead pull hitter for the most part so once teams made the adjustment defensively to account for that McCann's average and BABIP dropped like a rock.

 

[AUTiger7222]

I just can't shake the feeling this club is a 3rd or 4th place team. Gattis will flop, BJ repeats last year, and we lose at least one frontline guy for the entire year. This is going to be one of the worst years of Braves baseball in a long while.

I have three factors that won that division last year.

1. The Nats overconfidence.

2. The hot start. The Braves had a block of games early in the year where they were 20-1. You don't lose divisions when you can do that.

3. We handled them head to head.

I can't see any of that repeating itself this year.

Negative much? Dang dude. Why even play the damn season? Just give the Braves 3rd or 4th place in the division and save everyone 6 months of their life.

[video=youtube;aYKIcnj1MJY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYKIcnj1MJY[/video]

 

[AUTiger7222]

If I had told you heyward would hit below .200 until mid june, o'flaherty and venters would miss most of the season, bj would b the worst hitter in the majors, simmons would post a obp under .300, beachy would only make a handfull of starts and hudson would miss the final 2 months no one would have given the braves a chance. Lets not pretend the braves need a perfect storm of luck to win the division.

Exactly. Justin was great in April but then was very average the rest of the season as well. The Braves had anything but a perfect season last year and they won the division by 10 games.

 

[thewupk]

The reason for McCann's drop in BABIP is because teams started playing that dead shift against him and he has never adjusted to it. When McCann first came up he used the whole field as a hitter. But then he became a dead pull hitter for the most part so once teams made the adjustment defensively to account for that McCann's average and BABIP dropped like a rock.

They have been shifting on Mac for a long time though. It's nothing recent. And even if you are right 2012 is the obvious outlier and he's still been a 120 wrc+ hitter the last 4 out of 5 years. That's the base line that he has established. There is no decline there. That said if he continues to be a pull hitter he's going to get even better offensively while going to Yankee stadium. Ability to use that porch and DH when he's not catching? He will hit 30+ homers this year.

 

[AUTiger7222]

They have been shifting on Mac for a long time though. It's nothing recent. And even if you are right 2012 is the obvious outlier and he's still been a 120 wrc+ hitter the last 4 out of 5 years. That's the base line that he has established. There is no decline there. That said if he continues to be a pull hitter he's going to get even better offensively while going to Yankee stadium. Ability to use that porch and DH when he's not catching? He will hit 30+ homers this year.

It's nothing recent as evident by his last 4 or 5 year numbers. But it is something that changed from early in his career. Now you're correct in that he will benefit greatly from that short RF porch in Yankee Stadium. I will be very surprised if he doesn't hit 30 bombs this year.

 

[VirginiaBrave]

Not to mention the fact we had a 42-42 stretch as well so the hot April didn't set the tone, it did the job. It just proves games in April mean just as much as August and September.

 

[VirginiaBrave]

Negative much? Dang dude. Why even play the damn season? Just give the Braves 3rd or 4th place in the division and save everyone 6 months of their life.

[video=youtube;aYKIcnj1MJY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYKIcnj1MJY[/video]

All I am saying is this year I have hunch and they are hardly ever wrong when it comes to sports. Last year I said the Braves would yard the Nats and they did. It can be looked up at Scout.

 

[AUTiger7222]

Not to mention the fact we had a 42-42 stretch as well so the hot April didn't set the tone, it did the job. It just proves games in April mean just as much as August and September.

April - 17-9
May - 15-13
June - 16-12
July - 15-11
August - 20-7
September 13-14

The Braves were pretty consistent if you ask me. The Braves didn't win the division just because they were good in April. In 2007 the Braves started the season 24-12. Did they win the division that year? No. In fact they ended up 3rd in the division that year with just 84 wins.

 

[AUTiger7222]

All I am saying is this year I have hunch and they are hardly ever wrong when it comes to sports. Last year I said the Braves would yard the Nats and they did. It can be looked up at Scout.

And I'm telling you your "hunch" is wrong, dead wrong.

 

[VirginiaBrave]

We'll see...

 

[Carp]

Maholm and "quality innings" should not be in the same sentence. Wood can replace what Maholm did with his eyes closed.

I think there is reasonable expectation of improvement from a lot of guys, including our young pitchers.

You may dislike him, but Maholm was a quality 5th starter. Wood/Beachy may very well do better than Huddy/PM. But considering the amount of innings Beachy and Wood have pitched at the ML level recently, I wouldn't say it's anywhere near likely.

You also don't account for a reasonable drop in production from other players. Not all our players are going to improve.

 

[Carp]

Its going to be funny when Gattis hits this year better than last year we won't hear a peep about how much we miss Mac.

Wow well Gattis performs isn't that simple it isn't just Gattis vs Mac. It's Gattis/Mac vs Gattis/Doumit. If you honestly think Gattis Doumit will be more productive you're being extremely optimistic.

 

[Carp]

The Braves record without Hudson last season was still great dude. They didn't miss a beat after he got hurt. The Braves still kept winning despite getting absolutely ZERO production from McCann in the 2nd half of the season. Oh and McCann missed all of April too. The Braves have the confidence in knowing that they can win without Hudson and McCann because of how many games they won last year without them. Brandon Beachy gave us absolutely nothing last year. Anything we get from him this season is a bonus.

True, they won games without these players, but Mac and Huddy contributed alot of good production to this team. Mac basically carried us offensively in May if you recall. And both players performed well for over the half the season. Replacing that production isn't as easy you guys are making it out to be. To be better or stay the same, most of our starters will have to improve and none will have to regress/get injured.

From a realist perspective, none of that is likely. Possible sure. But not likely

 

[chopdrew]

All I am saying is this year I have hunch and they are hardly ever wrong when it comes to sports. Last year I said the Braves would yard the Nats and they did. It can be looked up at Scout.

No it can't. Nobody here is allowed there anymore...

 

[Heyward]

I have three factors that won that division last year.

1. The Nats overconfidence.

2. The hot start. The Braves had a block of games early in the year where they were 20-1. You don't lose divisions when you can do that.

3. We handled them head to head.

I can't see any of that repeating itself this year.

That doesnt mean we'll come in 3rd or 4th.

Literally everything would have to drop wrong for that to happen.

 

[Carp]

McCann is indeed in decline.

2005-2009 - .293/.356/.497 (.853). 121 OPS+

2010-2013 - .257/.342/.444 (.786). 113 OPS+

Terrible use of data ranges aside, if you remove Mac's 2012 injury ridden season, the yearly average numbers are basically a wash. He's hardly in decline.

 

[Heyward]

Not to mention the fact we had a 42-42 stretch as well so the hot April didn't set the tone, it did the job. It just proves games in April mean just as much as August and September.

Every team in baseball has highs and lows.

Go be a Nats fan.

As cajun said, we had a LOT go wrong and still won 96 games.

 

[Carp]

I picked those sample sizes because there was a clear difference in his production from the 2009 season to the 2010 season. Look at the difference in AVG, OBP and SLG.

2005 - .278/.345/.400 (.745) - 95 OPS+

2006 - .333/.388/.572 (.961) - 143 OPS+

2007 - .270/.320/.452 (.772) - 99 OPS+

2008 - .301/.373/.523 (.896) - 135 OPS+

2009 - .281/.349/.486 (.834) - 119 OPS+

2010 - .269/.375/.453 (.828) - 124 OPS+

2011 - .270/.351/.466 (.817) - 122 OPS+

2012 - .230/.300/.399 (.698) - 87 OPS+

2013 - .256/.336/.461 (.796) - 115 OPS+

The only thing different is batting average which fluctuates quite frequently in baseball. He was actually a better hitter in 10 so I don't know what kind of argument you're trying to make

 

[Heyward]

All I am saying is this year I have hunch and they are hardly ever wrong when it comes to sports. Last year I said the Braves would yard the Nats and they did. It can be looked up at Scout.

Good for you, want a cookie?

We had a lot go wrong last year and won 96 games, literally everything would have to go wrong to be 3rd or 4th.

 

[Carp]

If I had told you heyward would hit below .200 until mid june, o'flaherty and venters would miss most of the season, bj would b the worst hitter in the majors, simmons would post a obp under .300, beachy would only make a handfull of starts and hudson would miss the final 2 months no one would have given the braves a chance. Lets not pretend the braves need a perfect storm of luck to win the division.

And if I would have told you the Nats would have been a sub .500 team and the Braves would have a 15 game lead on Sept 1, you would have laughed at me.

The Nats will be much better which will take a few wins away itself.