Economics Thread

sturg33 said:
Im saying its worse because inflation is still high, but that doesnt count because inflation is alway up.

unemployment is high, but that doesnt count because less federal workers.

corporate layoffs were the highest in 20 years. But that doesnt count either because its AI

Manufacturing and construction jobs are low, but that doesnt count because these things take time. And yet, somehow, the economy is amazing with those construction and manufacturing jobs just sitting there without their foreigners

Our deficit is higher, our interest on the debt is now our 3rd biggest expense. But that doesnt count bc OBBB was a brilliant stroke of genius that had to be done

Nobody is hiring. Private payrolls are shrinking, but that doesnt count again bc AI

Less goods were sold for Christmas for more dollars spent. But that doesnt count bc kids dont 2 dolls

Record setting credit debt for the holiday season, but that doesnt count bc Joe Biden left people in a rut.

But ya know? There was a rebound in exports, despite record setting trade deficits, and a foreign company annoyed 100 trillion i ln new investments, so HAHAHHAHAHA Healthcare experts!
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Man - this sounds like a recession is on the horizon what are your predictions for 26 which will manifest as a result of your dreadful listing?

Surely it should be easy for you to say what will be bad in 26
 
thethe said:
Man - this sounds like a recession is on the horizon what are your predictions for 26 which will manifest as a result of your dreadful listing?

Surely it should be easy for you to say what will be bad in 26
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No, its not easy to predict what a 100 trillion global economy will do in 12 months. I dont have your 50 year insight i to the housing market

What i know is conditions are bad. Americans are in a huge amount of debt as is the country. I also know the fed will step the moment there is a danger, which can halt a short term meltdown but eventually the bill comes (see: what the fed did in 2001 eventually brought us to 2008)

Right now my prediction is that the dems will win the house and the Trump presidency effectively ends in Jan 2027
 
sturg33 said:
No, its not easy to predict what a 100 trillion global economy will do in 12 months. I dont have your 50 year insight i to the housing market

What i know is conditions are bad. Americans are in a huge amount of debt as is the country. I also know the fed will step the moment there is a danger, which can halt a short term meltdown but eventually the bill comes (see: what the fed did in 2001 eventually brought us to 2008)

Right now my prediction is that the dems will win the house and the Trump presidency effectively ends in Jan 2027
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Got it - Not willing to actually say what will be bad about the economy just that it will be bad.

Not easy to predict I agree but you guys KNOW tariffs are bad.

Americans with more money in their pockets is very very bad.

Well done.
 
sturg33 said:
I ask again why tariffs on our companies have resulted in increased wages
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I respond again that this wasn't the statement I responded to and long term tariffs do increase wages as more onshoring happens. You just can't hyperventilate after 1 month.
 
thethe said:
I respond again that this wasn't the statement I responded to and long term tariffs do increase wages as more onshoring happens. You just can't hyperventilate after 1 month.
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I would argue wages would be even higher without the tariffs. I would assume you disagree but wont be able to tell me why
 
sturg33 said:
I would argue wages would be even higher without the tariffs. I would assume you disagree but wont be able to tell me why
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Oh you mean the real wage increase that we have seen would be even higher despite wages not growing like this during periods of lower tariffs?
 
sturg33 said:
Ok, see? Youre implying here that tariffs are a driver for a higher wage and im asking you to explain how
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No, I'm not in the short term. Long term I certainly believe it.

What you are saying is that you would expect higher wage growth without tariffs implying tariffs reduce wages. And my response is we are seeing faster real wage growth than prior periods with significantly less tariffs.
 
thethe said:
No, I'm not in the short term. Long term I certainly believe it.

What you are saying is that you would expect higher wage growth without tariffs implying tariffs reduce wages. And my response is we are seeing faster real wage growth than prior periods with significantly less tariffs.
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Well if companies are taxed less they have more capital to offer employees

But I would kindly ask you refrain from pointing at wage growth as a proof point of tariffs working
 
thethe said:
Got it - Not willing to actually say what will be bad about the economy just that it will be bad.

Not easy to predict I agree but you guys KNOW tariffs are bad.
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Jacking the minimum wage is bad. It might manifest itself in higher unemployment, or increase underemployment, or cause a reduction in future employment, or a decline in non-wage benefits, or poorer working conditions, or less training, or accelerate a substitution of capital for labor, or increase costs to consumers, or I can go on and on.

Not being able to predict exactly when, where, and how these costs will manifest themselves does not mean the policy isn’t a net negative to the economy. We KNOW this.
 
sturg33 said:
Well if companies are taxed less they have more capital to offer employees

But I would kindly ask you refrain from pointing at wage growth as a proof point of tariffs working
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I pointed to it as proof the economy is on stronger footing than you'd like.

Companies were 'taxed less' in prior years and yet real wage growth is higher than those periods. So weird how that works.
 
acesfull86 said:
Jacking the minimum wage is bad. It might manifest itself in higher unemployment, or increase underemployment, or cause a reduction in future employment, or a decline in non-wage benefits, or working conditions, or training, or accelerate a substitution of capital for labor, or increase costs to consumers, or I can go on.

Not being able to predict exactly when, where, and how these costs will manifest themselves does not mean the policy isn’t a net negative to the economy. We KNOW this.
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GOt it - So its theoretical forever. Never need to assess real outcomes and adjust your models?
 
thethe said:
GOt it - So its theoretical forever. Never need to assess real outcomes and adjust your models?
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You’ve thoroughly proven you don’t “got it”

It’s not theoretical forever. The data is collected and analyzed after the fact. We isolate the costs and benefits and inevitably find out that the yet again the former outweighed the latter.

Then you come in and tell us all why the study doesn’t count.
 
acesfull86 said:
You’ve thoroughly proved you don’t “got it”
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Yes - I've shown that despite real world outcomes like an economy on solid footing following a recession of terrible proportions all took place while we had 80 year tariff highs.

Its pretty clear. You will stay theoretical even through a banging 26/27 year.
 
sturg33 said:
We have posted several data points l that you simply dismiss as unrelated.

All of your proof is a magical Q1 that hasn't happened yet
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You mean your data points that shows price increases that are almost solely attributable to baked in inflation?

Americans have more money in their pockets today than they did from 1 year ago. That is undeniable.
 
thethe said:
You mean your data points that shows price increases that are almost solely attributable to baked in inflation?

Americans have more money in their pockets today than they did from 1 year ago. That is undeniable.
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Do you accept or reject the wsj analysis that said a family of 4 has well over$1,000 increased costs due directly to the tariffs
 
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