Economics Thread

nsacpi said:
good...i appreciate that

what is measure of real wage growth that you would like to use
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Everything is median measure for me as most effective - Fortunate for some us in this new economy at the high end of earnings (below c-suite level) our earnings have spiked tremendously (especially those of us that have discretionary bonus pools indexed against markets).

We have hovered around total 2% which is a great start from the disaster we came from and I'd expect that in the next few years to be in the 4-5% range.
 
sturg33 said:
All im asking for are metrics to measure. Tell me what "start of golden age" looks like. We can compare

From my point of view, Trump raising taxes by $200+B has made his economic progress worse
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You say that he has raised taxes but what he really did was charge a large sales tax to suppliers and corporations a smaller piece because the price elasticity of these goods are not high so passing those costs to the consumer would actually hurt their bottom line more.
 
sturg33 said:
Amazing. But since we are measuring predictions, i want to know what I can expect in the golden age with specifics
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Low inflation / high wage growth / low energy & shelter costs / robust job market

We have seen the first 3 (at least lower shelter costs). The job market doesn't materialize until PP&E is finished which has been incentivized by OBBB as well as tariffs on foriegn companies to push production domestically.
 
thethe said:
You say that he has raised taxes but what he really did was charge a large sales tax to suppliers and corporations a smaller piece because the price elasticity of these goods are not high so passing those costs to the consumer would actually hurt their bottom line more.
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So is your position that all these American companies just lied?
 
thethe said:
Low inflation / high wage growth / low energy & shelter costs / robust job market

We have seen the first 3 (at least lower shelter costs). The job market doesn't materialize until PP&E is finished which has been incentivized by OBBB as well as tariffs on foriegn companies to push production domestically.
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No im asking the actual numbers of these measurements. 1%, 3%, 20%? What constitutes golden age?
 
sturg33 said:
So is your position that all these American companies just lied?
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Lying is a strong word - Maybe originally they were posturing and thought they had to do it. Then when they put pen to paper they realize the increase will hurt their bottom line. Maybe they didn't realize that suppliers would slash their prices as much as they did.
 
sturg33 said:
No im asking the actual numbers of these measurements. 1%, 3%, 20%? What constitutes golden age?
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Well the start of the golden age is actual real wage growth which we have seen but I think a consistent 4-5% is a golden age. This is real wage growth of course.
 
thethe said:
Lying is a strong word - Maybe originally they were posturing and thought they had to do it. Then when they put pen to paper they realize the increase will hurt their bottom line. Maybe they didn't realize that suppliers would slash their prices as much as they did.
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Yall laughed at me when I shared my personal experience of working with Chinese suppliers in 2019. But this is what happens when the #1 market in the world by far applies tariffs. The suppliers still want access and don't want to lose their customers.
 
You are not even going to comment whether or not you think the current outcome was better or worse than what you thought it would be 6-9 months ago?
 
thethe said:
You are not even going to comment whether or not you think the current outcome was better or worse than what you thought it would be 6-9 months ago?
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Do I think raising taxes on Americans helped? I do not.

But you can explain how raising costs on our businesses helped our economy
 
sturg33 said:
Do I think raising taxes on Americans helped? I do not.

But you can explain how raising costs on our businesses helped our economy
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Structurally it helped because it stopped us from enriching our enemy as much. It’s incentivized corps to build here. It’s provided an additional revenue stream primarily paid by foreign supplies to apply in other areas strategically.

Those newly built businesses will result in more jobs as well but that takes time and for impatient people they don’t care.

But again - you can pretend you weren’t expecting much much much worse outcome than what we have today.
 
The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 5.3 million, changed little in December but is up by 980,000 over the year. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job was little changed at 6.2 million in December but is up by 684,000 over the year. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

 
nsacpi said:
The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 5.3 million, changed little in December but is up by 980,000 over the year. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job was little changed at 6.2 million in December but is up by 684,000 over the year. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

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Obama care did a lot to this way back when if anyone remembers. Kicked a lot of folks to be held under the FT threshold.
 
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