Economics Thread

https://thenycalliance.org/information/survey-results-labor-costs

To gain insight into the labor market, between November 28th and December
27th, 2018, the New York City Hospitality Alliance conducted a survey to
investigate how restaurants in the city of New York are addressing increasing
labor costs.

The operators of 574 establishments responded to the survey, which represents
324 full service restaurants and 250 limited service restaurants.

The survey results presented in this report include powerful insights. 76.50% of
full service restaurant respondents reduced employee hours, and 36.30%
eliminated jobs in 2018, in response to mandated wage increases. 75% of limited
service restaurant respondents report that they will reduce employee hours, and
53.10% will eliminate jobs in 2019 as a result of mandated wage increases that
took effect on December 31, 2018.

There’s also a concerning trend found in restaurant employment data. When the
tip wage increased 50% in 2015, and since doubled, annual employment growth
dropped from 6.67% to less than 1% as of November 2018. The State Department
of Labor's data for employment at limited service restaurants show a similar
downtrend. Both decreases in growth, the results of this survey, and other
industry trends signal that a once growing industry; responsible for hundreds of
thousands of jobs, and billions of dollars in economic impact, has become
stagnant.
 
acesfull86 said:
https://thenycalliance.org/information/survey-results-labor-costs

To gain insight into the labor market, between November 28th and December
27th, 2018, the New York City Hospitality Alliance conducted a survey to
investigate how restaurants in the city of New York are addressing increasing
labor costs.

The operators of 574 establishments responded to the survey, which represents
324 full service restaurants and 250 limited service restaurants.

The survey results presented in this report include powerful insights. 76.50% of
full service restaurant respondents reduced employee hours, and 36.30%
eliminated jobs in 2018, in response to mandated wage increases. 75% of limited
service restaurant respondents report that they will reduce employee hours, and
53.10% will eliminate jobs in 2019 as a result of mandated wage increases that
took effect on December 31, 2018.

There’s also a concerning trend found in restaurant employment data. When the
tip wage increased 50% in 2015, and since doubled, annual employment growth
dropped from 6.67% to less than 1% as of November 2018. The State Department
of Labor's data for employment at limited service restaurants show a similar
downtrend. Both decreases in growth, the results of this survey, and other
industry trends signal that a once growing industry; responsible for hundreds of
thousands of jobs, and billions of dollars in economic impact, has become
stagnant.
Click to expand...

Wow. Who could have guess that??

Damn capitalism!
 
It actually amazes me that there are people who are presented with this data simply ignore it and are proud of doing so.

Minimum wage hurts people
 
sturg33 said:
It actually amazes me that there are people who are presented with this data simply ignore it and are proud of doing so.

Minimum wage hurts people
Click to expand...

I'm not looking to argue with any of this, I agree with you mostly about the minimum wage problems. However, could it be that some of these business owners are doing this more as a statement against it than actually needing to?
 
Chipper said:
I'm not looking to argue with any of this, I agree with you mostly about the minimum wage problems. However, could it be that some of these business owners are doing this more as a statement against it than actually needing to?
Click to expand...

Even if that were true (why would they lie?), that doesn't explain the radical slowdown in employment growth in the industry
 
Last edited:
Chipper said:
I'm not looking to argue with any of this, I agree with you mostly about the minimum wage problems. However, could it be that some of these business owners are doing this more as a statement against it than actually needing to?
Click to expand...

Margins are typically so thin in that industry I don’t think they can afford to make statements
 
acesfull86 said:
https://thenycalliance.org/information/survey-results-labor-costs

To gain insight into the labor market, between November 28th and December
27th, 2018, the New York City Hospitality Alliance conducted a survey to
investigate how restaurants in the city of New York are addressing increasing
labor costs.

The operators of 574 establishments responded to the survey, which represents
324 full service restaurants and 250 limited service restaurants.

The survey results presented in this report include powerful insights. 76.50% of
full service restaurant respondents reduced employee hours, and 36.30%
eliminated jobs in 2018, in response to mandated wage increases. 75% of limited
service restaurant respondents report that they will reduce employee hours, and
53.10% will eliminate jobs in 2019 as a result of mandated wage increases that
took effect on December 31, 2018.

There’s also a concerning trend found in restaurant employment data. When the
tip wage increased 50% in 2015, and since doubled, annual employment growth
dropped from 6.67% to less than 1% as of November 2018. The State Department
of Labor's data for employment at limited service restaurants show a similar
downtrend. Both decreases in growth, the results of this survey, and other
industry trends signal that a once growing industry; responsible for hundreds of
thousands of jobs, and billions of dollars in economic impact, has become
stagnant.
Click to expand...

I'm not a fan of the minimum wage as a policy tool, but I wouldn't draw firm conclusions from this survey absent a comparison survey of a major city, say Philly or Boston, that did not raise its minimum wage in the same time frame.
 
Who needs the government when the private sector continues to add jobs.

We need to shutdown the government again and get these government workers employed by people the know what they are doing.
 
Currently, we still have a US economy that seems to be continuing its momentum from 2018 and China that is showing every more weakening data.

If this continues the US should finally get the concessions from China we should have always had however I think Beijing will holdout to see if a sellout Democrat wins the presidency in 2020.
 
DydEDqAUwAACXUK.jpg:large
 
The socialists need to start making the argument for dramatically higher taxes on everyone... soaking the rich just won't get it done

[TW]1093317424215138305[/TW]
 
Robert Reich
‏Verified account @RBReich
2h2 hours ago

Robert Reich Retweeted The New York Times

Anyone who has a billion dollars either exploited a monopoly that

should have been broken up, got inside information unavailable to other investors,

bribed some politicians, or inherited the money from their parents (who did one of the above).
 
57Brave said:
Robert Reich
‏Verified account @RBReich
2h2 hours ago

Robert Reich Retweeted The New York Times

Anyone who has a billion dollars either exploited a monopoly that

should have been broken up, got inside information unavailable to other investors,

bribed some politicians, or inherited the money from their parents (who did one of the above).
Click to expand...

And we need them to pay for our socialism...

Id like to know your thoughts on Elon Musk. He has no monopolies.
 
New Proof the Trump Tax Cuts Are Doing the Exact Opposite of What They Promised
By Jonathan Chait
@jonathanchait




The Trump tax cuts had several publicly stated goals. First, by lowering corporate tax rates, they would induce companies to bring home massive stores of overseas cash. “We’ve got about $3 trillion in trapped cash overseas that basically can’t come back in this country because of our tax laws,” said Paul Ryan. Second, by eliminating loopholes and preferences, it would reduce the need for and value of gaming the tax code through specialized knowledge. “We just want to clean it up,” explained Ryan, “we just want to simplify the whole thing.” And third, by promoting new investment and economic activity, the tax cuts would spur enough new growth to replace the lost revenue.

Objective number three is already looking like a lost cause. Corporate tax revenues have plummeted, and the tax cuts are costing even more revenue than the government projected a year ago. A pair of new analyses today show that the other two goals aren’t looking very hot, either.

Economist Brad Setser writes that “there is no wide pattern of companies bringing back jobs or profits from abroad. The global distribution of corporations’ offshore profits — our best measure of their tax avoidance gymnastics — hasn’t budged from the prevailing trend.” American companies are still reporting their foreign earnings in the same handful of low-tax offshore locations.

What about the simplification? That hasn’t happened, either. Wall Street Journal tax reporter Richard Rubin reports that far from making accountants and tax lawyers unnecessary, they are more needed than ever before. The Trump tax cuts create new loopholes and complications that require even more tax experts to decipher and exploit. “Deloitte Tax LLP grew by 10% this fiscal year and expects another 10% bump next year,” he reports. “KPMG LLP says it hired twice as many experienced employees in 2018 in its U.S. tax practice as it did the year before.”

According to Rubin, the new joke among tax geeks is that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, as it’s officially titled, should be called the “Tax Jobs” and Cuts Act.

So the law’s putative goals have proven a failure. Tax revenues aren’t holding steady, corporate cash isn’t coming back from overseas, and the tax code is more complex and expensive to comply with than ever. So why aren’t Republicans thinking about repealing or at least revising the bill that has failed to accomplish its goals? Because it’s still doing a great job of accomplishing the actual goal that they really cared about: letting people who own businesses have more money:



19-paul-ryan-wages.nocrop.w710.h2147483647.jpg


Illustration: The Wall Street Journal
 
From Greg Mankiw's blog (he is an economist so I believe this is the right thread for it).

Who is the prototypical rich person?
I recommend this op-ed by Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman. Not because I agree with its recommendation of super high tax rates on the rich, but because it makes clear the perspectives and motives of the Left.

In the standard economic approach to optimal redistribution (such as Okun and Mirrlees), the case for progressive taxation is based on diminishing marginal utility. But that is not the essence of the matter, according to Saez and Zucman. They view rich people as fundamentally undermining democracy. It is more a political argument than an economic one.
Saez and Zucman seem to think that rich people are like Henry Potter, the conniving banker in It's a Wonderful Life. Mr Potter makes his money dishonestly and uses it to control the instruments of the government to further enrich himself and impoverish the lives of those around him.
Another kind of rich person is someone like Taylor Swift. She is fabulously wealthy (net worth > $300 million) but earned that wealth by enhancing the lives of others through great music. As far as I know, she does not have significant political clout.
So are most rich people more like Henry Potter or Taylor Swift? Obviously, they come in both kinds. Unfortunately, we now have a Henry Potter living in the White House.
But most rich people I know seem more like Taylor Swift. They make their money honestly by providing value to others. And they have less political influence than is often supposed.

Indeed, most rich people I know would have been happy to spend vast sums of money to keep Mr Trump out of the White House. And many tried. The Trump phenomenon is not an argument that the moneyed elites have too much influence on politics. If anything, it is an argument that they have too little.

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/

Here is the op-ed by Saez and Zucman he referenced.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/22/opinion/ocasio-cortez-taxes.html
 
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