Ender

B

bravesguy

Danville Rookie
Don't look now, but Ender Inciarte is becoming what some hoped he would be in the Miller trade. Namely a quality defensive CF with good to above average hitting (primarily OBP) and good to above average base running.

His CF has been quality all year...check

His base running has been acceptable all year...Kind of check (not on base enough)

But wait...

His hitting is getting better and better as the season progresses.

He is currently hitting 263/322/656 (not terrible but just average)...then you look at his splits.

Last 30 games 296/339/696 (this is exactly what we wanted)

Last 15 games 386/419/823 (unexpected all star type stats)

Last 7 games 464/464/964 (all world CF..none better (w/o power) in the majors)

a month is a really small sample size, but maybe injuries, pressure, new environment, just drag of a bad team may have effected him and now he has gotten it together.
 
Your strange triple slash confused the hell out of me, and we're agreed on the small sample size, but it's still hard not to get excited about a potentially at least average bat from Ender.
 
A .263/.322/.333 line is not average. In fact, it is way below average. Why is a sub .700 OPS exactly what we wanted (again, below average)?

Check out his monthly splits:

April 95 wRC+
May 47
June 86
July 75
August 249

We are going to need more than a 2 week stretch to put him anywhere close to talk of being average.
 
I love watching Inciarte play. He is a beast in CF and in no way be moved for Mallex Smith. He is getting in a groove now and is showing us the player that we all got excited about.
 
bravesguy said:
Don't look now, but Ender Inciarte is becoming what some hoped he would be in the Miller trade. Namely a quality defensive CF with good to above average hitting (primarily OBP) and good to above average base running.

His CF has been quality all year...check
His base running has been acceptable all year...Kind of check (not on base enough)

But wait...

His hitting is getting better and better as the season progresses.

He is currently hitting 263/322/656 (not terrible but just average)...then you look at his splits.

Last 30 games 296/339/696 (this is exactly what we wanted)
Last 15 games 386/419/823 (unexpected all star type stats)
Last 7 games 464/464/964 (all world CF..none better (w/o power) in the majors)

a month is a really small sample size, but maybe injuries, pressure, new environment, just drag of a bad team may have effected him and now he has gotten it together.
Click to expand...

There will be some who will disagree and point out some numbers to "prove" you wrong, but I believe you are right on target.

The reason I think both Ender and Mallex could exist in the same OF is that they are both so dynamic. They are electric, for want of a better term. When they are on base, and even at the plate, you just have that feeling that something exciting is going to happen.

They don't hit for much power, but their speed turns singles into double and gappers into triples. Pitchers have to respect them, and that leads to more opportunities.
 
gilesfan said:
A .263/.322/.333 line is not average. In fact, it is way below average. Why is a sub .700 OPS exactly what we wanted (again, below average)?

Check out his monthly splits:

April 95 wRC+
May 47
June 86
July 75
August 249

We are going to need more than a 2 week stretch to put him anywhere close to talk of being average.
Click to expand...

For what it's worth, a roughly .700 OPS with his defense is an effective starting CF. I'd absolutely be happy with his last 30 days if that was the Ender we're getting.
 
mfree80 said:
There will be some who will disagree and point out some numbers to "prove" you wrong, but I believe you are right on target.

The reason I think both Ender and Mallex could exist in the same OF is that they are both so dynamic. They are electric, for want of a better term. When they are on base, and even at the plate, you just have that feeling that something exciting is going to happen.

They don't hit for much power, but their speed turns singles into double and gappers into triples. Pitchers have to respect them, and that leads to more opportunities.
Click to expand...

If we focus on power for the other OF position (looks like Kemp for a few years), 3B, and C... Then we can certainly afford Mallex and Inciarte in the same OF
 
mqt said:
For what it's worth, a roughly .700 OPS with his defense is an effective starting CF. I'd absolutely be happy with his last 30 days if that was the Ender we're getting.
Click to expand...

I agree that great defense in CF with a .700 OPS is probably close to average overall. Especially helpful if you can hit them 8th.
 
mfree80 said:
There will be some who will disagree and point out some numbers to "prove" you wrong, but I believe you are right on target.

The reason I think both Ender and Mallex could exist in the same OF is that they are both so dynamic. They are electric, for want of a better term. When they are on base, and even at the plate, you just have that feeling that something exciting is going to happen.

They don't hit for much power, but their speed turns singles into double and gappers into triples. Pitchers have to respect them, and that leads to more opportunities.
Click to expand...

I've spent two posts already defending Inciarte, but I can't get behind this thought. Yeah, when Ender is in the field he's electric, but his performance just doesn't justify the idea that his PAs are electric.
 
mqt said:
For what it's worth, a roughly .700 OPS with his defense is an effective starting CF. I'd absolutely be happy with his last 30 days if that was the Ender we're getting.
Click to expand...

Sure. But offensively speaking a sub 700 OPS is below avg for a CF. 727 OPS is the mark for CFers this year.
 
Ender's OPS's per month have been .650 (in 3 games), .539, .687, .657, 1.250 (in 3 games). Overall a .656 OPS on the year, and an OPS of .716 over the last 365 days to go along with a career .701 OPS. That is pretty much what I pegged him as at the very beginning of the year. He is playable offensively vs RHers, and must be benched vs LHers.

I know everyone wants to get excited about a hot stretch, just like Aybar's current hot streak, but every single player in the game goes through hot streaks. They all go through cold streaks. They all go through serveral hot and cold streaks every year. After 1000+ PAs and several hot/cold cycles, their true talent level emerges. Ender's overall talent level is an elite defensive OFer with a ~.320 OBP and very little power.

He has proven what he is over 1300+ PAs, so I don't think his last 100 PAs show he is suddenly anything other than a below average hitter on a hot streak.

If the Braves want to win they will need more offense from the OF positions than Kemp, Ender and Mallex (or Markakis) can provide.
 
I really like Ender, but I see Mallex being kept and Ender is the one traded. The FO has shown some trends in their thinking (rather you agree or not). They need a RH bat who can also play CF to spell Mallex.

They want players with big upside even if there's a bust factor
They want to sell high on players whose value is mostly in their defense
They're trying to avoid the arbitration game when possible for now (Zizcaino and Withrow have both been mentioned in trade rumors) Kroll is probably also traded since he's having his best season and is arby eligible. Paco is probably kept because his value is low coming off of injury.

Edit: I do like Inciarte as a player and if we do decide to take a chance on a guy like Soler in RF and keep both he and Mallex I'd be perfectly happy with that.
 
thewupk said:
Sure. But offensively speaking a sub 700 OPS is below avg for a CF. 727 OPS is the mark for CFers this year.
Click to expand...
Well, yeah. I'm not implying the bat isn't below average even in this rosy view, just that I'll take a slightly below average bat if it comes with superior defense.
 
mqt said:
Well, yeah. I'm not implying the bat isn't below average even in this rosy view, just that I'll take a slightly below average bat if it comes with superior defense.
Click to expand...

Sure. Especially in center. That would rate him as a ~3 WAR player. I'll take that all day.
 
If he steals 20-25 bases a year, how does that factor into his ops? I know it doesn't, but if he gets to 2b it's still sorta like a double
 
Baserunning are considered in other meaures, but my goodness, I hope we don't have this discussion on here again. It's been about 10 years or so.
 
Career slash line: .285/.328/.374

That's who he is. We're not going back to ancient history to get that. It is what he has compiled in 328 games (which works out to slightly over two full seasons). We should not give undue weight to his weak numbers earlier this year or his hot streak the past few weeks. His career data are an accurate representation of who he is and what kind of player he is likely to be during the next few seasons.

Btw his career WAR in those 328 games is 7.5. Not too shabby. If we had a lineup full of players producing that kind of value, we'd be a contending team.
 
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