Olney just wrote the same thing...
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- The Tampa Bay Rays have been collecting information this week in their trade conversations about starter David Price, because eventually they will have to trade him. They drafted Price, they developed Price, they love Price, and he is a team leader, but they will move him because of a simple math equation: He will soon make too much money for them to afford.
If they trade him this offseason, they will get strong value in return. If they wait, their trade return -- as well as their payroll flexibility in 2014 -- will be diminished, because Price is moving closer to the time he can become a free agent, after the 2015 season.
The Atlanta Braves should be taking notes on all this, because they have a player who fits this description and these circumstances. Someone they drafted and developed, someone they love, a team leader -- and someone who is soon going to be too expensive for their relatively modest payroll: Craig Kimbrel, the best closer on the planet.
They should be looking to trade him, and right now might be the best possible time.
The Braves control Kimbrel for three more seasons before he becomes eligible for free agency after the 2016 season, and he’s about to get pretty expensive through arbitration, with his salary climbing from $655,000 in 2013 to the expected range of $7.25 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
You cannot overstate how great Kimbrel has been in his first four years in the big leagues. In fact, try this on for size: His first four seasons are arguably the best of any reliever ever. The right-hander has allowed only 123 hits in 227 1/3 innings, with 381 strikeouts, 82 walks and just 10 homers surrendered. He has a career ERA of 1.39.
His ERA+ for the early work of his career stands at 282. To put that number into perspective, the greatest ERA+ for a full career is 202, by Mariano Rivera.
But remarkably, even at 25, he is beginning to approach the ceiling of what the baseball industry is willing to pay a closer. Rivera was the greatest reliever of all time, and he never made more than $15 million in any season. Just last week, the Baltimore Orioles dumped Jim Johnson -- who is coming off back-to-back seasons of 50 and 51 saves -- because they didn’t want to pay him $11 million through arbitration. The Phillies are ready to pay down big dollars to get rid of Jonathan Papelbon, who is baseball’s highest-paid closer at $13 million annually.
Kimbrel might be in line to challenge Papelbon as the game’s highest-paid closer by the start of the 2015 season, given that his arbitration case is unprecedented and pristine.
The Yankees are one of the few teams that could spend $15 million on a closer. The Phillies could. The Dodgers might. Maybe the Red Sox, for the right guy. The Rangers, perhaps.
The Braves could do it, just as the Rays could keep and pay Price. But because the Braves, like the Rays, have a relatively modest payroll, keeping a short reliever who absorbs 10 to 15 percent of the team's overall salary expense is extremely difficult. Unsustainable, really. And Atlanta’s payroll has basically stayed the same for the last 15 years because of its lousy television contract, ranging between $86 million and $106 million.
In the years ahead, the Braves will need to pay Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward and Andrelton Simmons. They owe B.J. Upton $15 million per year for the next four seasons,Dan Uggla $13 million annually for the next two seasons. They’ll have to pay Mike Minor and Julio Teheran, their two best young starting pitchers.
As great as Kimbrel is, the fact that he’ll account for just 9 to 12 outs in a relatively heavy week of action means the Braves won’t get a lot of volume of production for his growing salary. That’s a significant problem for a team with a $100 million payroll.
The Rays are working to trade Price now because he’s not so expensive, and so close to free agency, that his trade value will be mitigated. The same holds true for Kimbrel, but only right now. If the Braves wait until next winter or the winter after that to deal Kimbrel, the number of teams that would consider trading for a $12 million to $15 million closer could probably be counted on one hand.
On the other hand: With Kimbrel’s salary projected to be in the $7 million range for 2014, a lot more teams would be in play, especially for someone so dominant. Right now, there are about a half-dozen teams looking for a closer, and there probably are many other teams that would dump their current closer if they had a shot at Kimbrel. Think a team in win-now mode, like Seattle, would like him? Think the Dodgers would hesitate to move Kenley Jansen if they could have Kimbrel?
Typically, teams aren’t going to give up a lot for a short reliever, but Kimbrel may be an exception if the timing of a trade is right. And because of how Kimbrel’s salary is rocketing upward, due to his success, that window may quickly evaporate after July 31, 2014.
If the Braves don’t think they can keep Kimbrel long term, it would serve them to start collecting information and offers right now, just as the Rays are doing with Price.
Thoughts?
