ESPN Insider: Why the Braves should consider trading Kimbrel this winter.

[nsacpi]

We'll find out the answer to this debate when an elite closer like Kimbrel or Chapman hits the FA market. I think someone like that will get 15M/year. Probably a 4-5 year deal. But there is no way to settle this debate definitively until it happens.

 

[zitothebrave]

We have one guy in our system that could, could turn out to be good enough to consider trading Kimbrel next year. That guy is Shea Simmons. He is 23 with a minor league ERA of 1.62, WHIP of 1.09, K/9 of 13.6, K/BB of 3.11. He should pitch in AA or AAA this year. As comparison, Craig's minor league ERA was 1.85, WHIP 1.12, K/9 14.4, K/BB 2.55.

ERA is basically worthless when judging minor league pitchers.

Simmons is interesting.

His career rates are K/9 13.6 BB/9 4.4 HR/9 0.00

Obviously the K/9 and HR/9 are awesome. The HR is unattainably awesome infact.

Kimbrel's rates K/9 14.4 BB/9 5.66 HR/9 0.3

So as you see Simmons is similar, but what Kimbrel did that took him way up was dropped his BB rate in the majors. And he made the majors younger so his development curve is different. If you're walking in 4 range you can't be dominant.

Kimbrel also has better pure stuff as well.

 

[zitothebrave]

We'll find out the answer to this debate when an elite closer like Kimbrel or Chapman hits the FA market. I think someone like that will get 15M/year. Probably a 4-5 year deal. But there is no way to settle this debate definitively until it happens.

Maybe will get that, but it won't be for too long. We had an elite closer hit the market in Papelbon and he got 4/50.

 

[nsacpi]

Maybe will get that, but it won't be for too long. We had an elite closer hit the market in Papelbon and he got 4/50.

We'll see. Kimbrel has been better than Papelbon. He'll certainly do better than Nathan and Wilson did this off-season, assuming he stays healthy and maintains his effectiveness.

 

[Knucksie]

Kimbrel also has better pure stuff as well.

Kimbrel's success may have as much to do as another factor than just his stuff. He and Venters were mentored by Wagner. The effects can't be underestimated.

We'll see. Kimbrel has been better than Papelbon. He'll certainly do better than Nathan and Wilson did this off-season, assuming he stays healthy and maintains his effectiveness.

You keep posting that "no way to settle this" and "we'll see," then turn around and act as if it's a foregone conclusion that there are teams willing to spend that much, just because of Wilson and Nathan. Texas and Boston are 2 of the wealthier clubs, and have already shown that they're willing to let closers walk, when they get more expensive. Only so many teams are willing to shell out over $10 million in salary for that role. After they get wise and analyze the cost/benefits, they realize that it's not necessary to allocate that much in payroll.

Both Nathan and Wilson are on short-term contracts anyway. So, now this will allow OP the opportunity to interject, "see that means they're going to bid (probably against themselves) over $15 million for Kimbrel!" Believe it, other clubs are already wondering when he's going to need TJ.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Isnt it pretty much cast in concrete that Chapman will convert to starting when he gets expensive/Cinncy loses a few starters to FA in near future?

Which potential CONTENDERS need a closer and money is not a problem?

How many of Kimbrels saves over his career have been 1 run, 2 run or 3 run saves?

 

[nsacpi]

It is true that nothing is a foregone conclusion. We just have some indications here and there. The contracts given to Nathan and Wilson this off-season. The contracts given to Soriano last off-season and Papelbon two off-seasons ago. The willingness of the A's to take a closer who is going to get about $10M in arbitration.

Now none of this is definitive. None of these players are perfect comparables to Kimbrel. Some of the contracts are only for a year or two. Kimbrel will hit the market at a different time. So nothing is settled. It is an interesting debate. My opinion based on some of the above observations is that Kimbrel will get at least 15M per year for at least four years once he hits the market, assuming good health and continued effectiveness. I understand others have a different view. This for me is part of the fun of discussing these things on a board like this.

As the les francais say a chacun son gout. Or as Yogi Berra would put it de gustibus non est dispustandum.

 

[Hawk]

It is (somewhat) possible that Kimbrel could give the Braves a Pedroia-esque discount. Money always talks, but of all the players on the team Craig is about the only one I can logic out potentially being willing to cut the Braves a deal.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Wondered if it was time to move this thread back up Could do the same thing with the Heyward thread. But win or lose I dont think Freddie is going anywhere soon.

 

[Eyeman]

After seeing the arbitration numbers, I don't think Kimbrel will give us a discount. You have to wonder if we feel we can afford him even before he hits free agency. I doubt we'll ever be offered something distinctly more valuable than the compensation pick we'd get with a qualifying offer. If I were GM and some big offer came up, I'd take it and spend the money elsewhere.

 

[thewupk]

After seeing the arbitration numbers, I don't think Kimbrel will give us a discount. You have to wonder if we feel we can afford him even before he hits free agency. I doubt we'll ever be offered something distinctly more valuable than the compensation pick we'd get with a qualifying offer. If I were GM and some big offer came up, I'd take it and spend the money elsewhere.

Not if he gets 9 million this year. No way we can afford him in his last year before FA. Likely traded for cents on the dollar.