Farewell to Wood, Peraza, Jimmy Johns, and Avilans.

[50PoundHead]

It all boils down to Olivera. He shows he can play (more importantly hit), this probably turns out to be a decent deal. Big risk though.

I am not as enamored as most on the board regarding Wood, although I will readily admit that he's a good pitcher. "How good?" is the pending question. Peraza moves back to SS, where he likely holds the most value and can sport an OPS in the low-to-mid .600 range while contributing considerable value. I always thought the Braves rushed him a bit. His on-base skills need some fine-tuning and I think slowing down his ascent might have helped with that. He's still an unfinished product in my view.

So, like usual, I'm in the middle although I will readily admit this deal is the riskiest the Hart and Co. have completed during the re-build.

 

[yeezus]

What? You think in a one-game scenario, Hamels is way better than Wood? That's ridiculous.

Yes, I absolutely do.
But baseball is not a one game season, and throwing 220 innings is huge. Hamels does that. Wood hasn't sniffed 200. He's got time, but the likelihood he ever ends up being as dependable as Hamels is small. Very small.

 

[Oklahomabrave]

avid O'Brien

@DOBrienAJC

#Dodgers covering all of Olivera $28M bonus, but not all of $ owed to Arroyo. #Braves picking up part of that

I'm guessing we are paying what's owed this year and they are paying the option.

 

[zbhargrove]

Wood is certainly close to Hamels. The difference being the durability of Hamels and how long he's done it. OTOH, Wood is performing similar to him at age 24, so you get Wood for several years (sounds painful) whereas you can only expect Hamels to be at his level for a couple/few more years.

This year, Wood's WHIP is up quite a bit... and his K/9 and strikeout % are down quite a bit... his FIP is close to his ERA but many of his peripherals are a bit concerning when coupled with lost velocity.

 

[sturg33]

I would be fine with this trade if Olivera were a few years younger. I mean a guy with potential to put up an .800-.850 OPS at 3b on a team friendly contract is a pretty valuable player. There are only 5 qualified 3b with an OPS at or above .800 in MLB. And you look at Bird and he clearly does have some potential with that high k/9 ratio. Obviously command/control is an issue, but at age 20 he's got some time to figure it out. The pick is nice and we could turn that into a top 5ish type prospect in our system. Paco is a very cheap young lefty reliever who will help us out next year and beyond.

But I just can't stop looking at that age 30 and thinking that I just don't know if this guy will consistently put up that .800ish OPS that we need from him to make this trade work in our favor. If he does it for at least 4 seasons though then this trade will be a win for us. Huge if though.

Well, our long term acquisition of bats so far has been a 31 year old Markakis and a 30 year old Olivera.

 

[smootness]

I just totally disagree. Ask ANYONE who they'd take for one playoff game and it's not even close. Hamels is a legit stud. Wood has a long way to prove that. Wood is never likely to sign a deal like Hamels did, and Hamels has been worth it. He is an ace.

I don't know what any of that matters. Just because 100% would take Hamels doesn't make Hamels 100% better; it just makes him at least a tick better to everyone.

On average, in the playoffs, Wood will give you 6-7 IP and 3 runs given up. Hamels will give you 7-8 IP and....3 runs given up. Again, the difference is not nearly as big as you suggest.

 

[gilesfan]

Haha what? None of those guys were rentals.

Are you just talking about half year deal? You don't consider 1 year to be a rental?

 

[Preacher]

I don't love the trade, but I get it.

I'm excited to Olivera in the lineup. People are obsessing about the risks here and not looking at the upside.

 

[yeezus]

I love how "durability and track record" mean nothing when comparing Wood and Hamels when those are HUGE parts of being an ace pitcher. Wood has a LONG way to go to be Hamels or Price. LONG way.

 

[dak]

avid O'Brien

@DOBrienAJC

#Dodgers covering all of Olivera $28M bonus, but not all of $ owed to Arroyo. #Braves picking up part of that

Fiddlesticks. Hope it's not much.

 

[smootness]

? If you look at those Cuban full seasons, he's hitting 17-20 in 350-400 at bats. They play 90-something games. He walks a good bit. He's 220 pounds. I know one scout said he'd hit .280 and 20 HRs, but Keith Law said Freddie Freeman was a poor man's Mark Grace.

O might be a 5. Who knows?

He might hit for all the power and less average or keep it up because the pitchers are consistently around the plate.

Check out what other guys have done in the Cuban league. His HR numbers should roughly translate to a full MLB season...so 15-20 HR. He's a potentially good bat, but he's not a huge power guy.

Abreu put up an OPS at almost 1.600 in that league. Olivera isn't that guy.

 

[SidSlid92]

Most idiotic trade I've ever seen from any organization. If you move Wood and your top prospect, you must get back either Puig, Pederson, Seager or Urias. If not them, you have to get back a package of Holmes, De Leon, Barnes.

Olivera plus a pick? Laughable. This front office has done so much right to turn around and deal 2 great assets for little return. We just gave up our future lead-off guy and a 24 year old SP that's already succeeding for a 30-year old, unproven 3B with health question marks. The Dodgers made out like bandits here.

Don't try to spin it with salary relief. We weren't hurting for money when we took on Arroyo's deal. We just got played by the Dodgers. This was an opportunity to further our rebuilding plan. Instead we pissed away a good, young, cheap starter and our top prospect. Beyond belief.

 

[keithlaw]

I love how "durability and track record" mean nothing when comparing Wood and Hamels when those are HUGE parts of being an ace pitcher. Wood has a LONG way to go to be Hamels or Price. LONG way.

Also funny how injury risk craters Olivera's value but doesn't apply to Wood's.

 

[zbhargrove]

Most idiotic trade I've ever seen from any organization. If you move Wood and your top prospect, you must get back either Puig, Pederson, Seager or Urias. If not them, you have to get back a package of Holmes, De Leon, Barnes.

Olivera plus a pick? Laughable. This front office has done so much right to turn around and deal 2 great assets for little return. We just gave up our future lead-off guy and a 24 year old SP that's already succeeding for a 30-year old, unproven 3B with health question marks. The Dodgers made out like bandits here.

Don't try to spin it with salary relief. We weren't hurting for money when we took on Arroyo's deal. We just got played by the Dodgers. This was an opportunity to further our rebuilding plan. Instead we pissed away a good, young, cheap starter and our top prospect. Beyond belief.

Not that I disagree that it was a bad trade... but Peraza is definitely not our top prospect anymore... he's not going to be a future leadoff guy if he continues to exhibit his AAA level of on base skills.

 

[bravesnumberone]

I'm sorry but if you're gonna preach self-righteous about "getting back to the Braves way," that should not include trading a promising 24-year-old lefty who's cheap and controllable for several more seasons. All for a guy over 30, with elbow problems, who MIGHT have an .800-.850 OPS as the centerpiece, an OK prospect and another injured reliever.

We didn't get Puig or any established bat.
We didn't get one of their top 4-5 prospects for Wood.
And we didn't get rid of Chris Johnson.

 

[gilesfan]

This year, Wood's WHIP is up quite a bit... and his K/9 and strikeout % are down quite a bit... his FIP is close to his ERA but many of his peripherals are a bit concerning when coupled with lost velocity.

His velocity is down because he wanted more sink on his sinker.

His FIP is down slightly from last year 3.25 to 3.39. He's a 24 year old with a low 3 ERA career wise. Heck, he's even pitched well this year (3.54 ERA) despite a crazy high .332 BABIP and low strand rate.

 

[weso1]

Here's his scouting report from Fangraphs' Kiley McDaniel:

The Scouting Report

Hit: 45/55, Game Power: 45/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 55/55, Field: 50/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50

There’s undeniable talent here: Olivera has above average bat speed, bat control, plate discipline and raw power, which is to all fields and he has a history of getting to in games. He’s an above average runner that can play second base or third base and has an above average arm. That’s an above average everyday player with the statistical track record to give you some confidence that he’ll perform in the big leagues, but there’s real risk of him staying on the field regularly and not having his tools regress in a few years.

What all of this the means is that the optimistic outcome is, in 2015 in the big leagues, that Olivera could hit .260-.280 with a good OBP, 15-20 homers and solid-average base running and defensive value. He may well be better in 2015 than Yasmany Tomas and Rusney Castillo, but given his age and track record, that isn’t going out on much of a limb; the concern is if he’s better than them in the following years and the risk associated with that. It’s possible Olivera will need a couple week in the minors to get up to speed, but he’s seen as a plug-and-play MLB option.

 

[smootness]

Are you just talking about half year deal? You don't consider 1 year to be a rental?

Yes, I'm specifically talking about guys like Cueto, Price, and your Sabathia example. Those are rentals. It's always a bad deal to give up a top prospect for that.

Taking away the 'rental' part completely changes the conversation.

Every guy you mentioned played at least 2 additional seasons with the team who acquired him.

 

[UNCBlue012]

#Braves plan was always overstock young SP to get bats. Looked at fr agt mkt not many hitters available. So turned Wood into Oliveras

 

[yeezus]

I don't know what any of that matters. Just because 100% would take Hamels doesn't make Hamels 100% better; it just makes him at least a tick better to everyone.

On average, in the playoffs, Wood will give you 6-7 IP and 3 runs given up. Hamels will give you 7-8 IP and....3 runs given up. Again, the difference is not nearly as big as you suggest.

So are you JUST using FIP and xFIP to compare the two? How else do they compare? Do quality IPs not matter for starting pitchers? Does going deep into games not matter? I just don't see how you can compare Wood to them RIGHT NOW. And with Wood's falling velo while Hamels is till throwing 95? Not close.