FG's Top 46 Recently Graduated Prospects

thewupk said:
A 265 ISO is not comparable to Albies 171 or what we expect Albies to have.
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did we expect ramirez to have a .265 ISO based on his minor league numbers, which is what i was comparing with albies? are you being obtuse on purpose?
 
Nobody can predict changes in ISO for young players. Nobody is saying its a definite but to dismiss it as impossible which is essentially what is happening here is mystifying. Albies is not just 'another prospect'.
 
Super said:
did we expect ramirez to have a .265 ISO based on his minor league numbers, which is what i was comparing with albies?
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Ok? So yes if Albies suddenly has elite power then yes he will likely have several 6 WAR seasons.
 
thethe said:
Nobody can predict changes in ISO for young players. Nobody is saying its a definite but to dismiss it as impossible which is essentially what is happening here is mystifying. Albies is not just 'another prospect'.
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Who is saying it's impossible? Just without having good power it's going to be hard for him to accomplish this. That's a fact. You can live in the realm of 1% if you want and dream of a players highest ceiling but that rarely happens and just leads to disappointment.
 
thewupk said:
Ok? So yes if Albies suddenly has elite power then yes he will likely have several 6 WAR seasons.
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Ramirez was 39th in homers but 15th in ISO. He hit a lot of doubles and triples because he has a great idea of the zone and makes great contact. their minors numbers are similar, with ozzie flashing a higher ISO last year than ramirez ever did. they have similar profiles, and ozzie probably plays even better defense, and may run better.
 
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Super said:
Ramirez was 39th in homers but 15th in ISO. He hit a lot of doubles and triples because he has a great idea of the zone and makes great contact. their minors numbers are similar, with ozzie flashing a higher ISO last year than ramirez ever did. they have similar profiles, and ozzie probably plays even better defense, and may run better.
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Ok? 15th in ISO is elite power. When Albies starts hitting 50+ doubles let me know. At that point he'll probably have a 6 WAR season.
 
thewupk said:
Who is saying it's impossible? Just without having good power it's going to be hard for him to accomplish this. That's a fact. You can live in the realm of 1% if you want and dream of a players highest ceiling but that rarely happens and just leads to disappointment.
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How do you determine good power for a 20 year old?
 
thewupk said:
Ok? 15th in ISO is elite power. When Albies starts hitting 50+ doubles let me know. At that point he'll probably have a 6 WAR season.
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How many doubles was Ramirez hitting at 20? Where was he playing at 20?
 
thethe said:
How do you determine good power for a 20 year old?
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Why does age matter? Good power is determined by how the league performs as a whole. Why does it matter if he has 'good power' for a 20 year when he's compared to everyone else when determining his WAR?

If you want to suggest Albies can be a somewhat regular 6 WAR player that's fine. But he's going to have to good to plus power to be able to accomplish this. Without that it's going to be hard to do that for a 2B.
 
thethe said:
And most people will realize that Altuve was older than Albies at basically every single stop. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is a reasonable comp for Albies.
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Here's the Minor data: Age/League/Iso/OBP-BA. Albies listed first

17 RK FRk .080/.098 ,082/.085
18 A Rk ..074/.149 .058/.036
19 AA/AAA Rk/A- .128/.149 .066/.085
20 AAA A-/A+ .155/.147 .068/.041

Partial Season Major Debut

Ozzie: 224 PA .180 ISO .068 OBP-BA AGE 20, slash line .286/.354/.456
Jose: 234 PA .081 ISO .031 OBP-BA AGE 21, slash line .276/.297/.357

Let's translate: Ozzie played at a higher level than Altuve at every age. At ages 19-20 Ozzie was 2-3 leagues above Altuve and put up comparable, if not better numbers. Looking specifically at age 20 Ozzie put up a slash line of .285/.330/.440 at AAA. Jose, OTOH, put up .301/.357/.448, splitting his season between low and high A.

In his first two full seasons (ages 22 and 23) in MLB, Altuve put up slash lines of .290/.340/.399 and .283/.316/.363. Would anyone here bet against Ozzie bettering those at ages 21 ad 22? I wouldn't. Altuve had a normal power surge at ages 24 and 25, but didn't really blow up until ages 26 and 27.

Thethe is correct is his evaluation.
 
thewupk said:
Why does age matter? Good power is determined by how the league performs as a whole. Why does it matter if he has 'good power' for a 20 year when he's compared to everyone else when determining his WAR?

If you want to suggest Albies can be a somewhat regular 6 WAR player that's fine. But he's going to have to good to plus power to be able to accomplish this. Without that it's going to be hard to do that for a 2B.
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Is this an actual question? Do you want to see the progression of ISO in relation to the aging curve?
 
thewupk said:
Ok? 15th in ISO is elite power. When Albies starts hitting 50+ doubles let me know. At that point he'll probably have a 6 WAR season.
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The point was the ISO wasn't carried by a bunch of HRs, but by gap power and ramirez running well and turning lesser hits into greater ones. i don't think anything extraordinary has to happen for ozzie to become that kind of all around player, especially for just a couple of seasons.
 
Ozzie's power has already spiked considerably from what it was even this time last year. And he was 20 all last season, and will be 21 all this season.
 
Super said:
The point was the ISO wasn't carried by a bunch of HRs, but by gap power and ramirez running well and turning lesser hits into greater ones. i don't think anything extraordinary has to happen for ozzie to become that kind of all around player, especially for just a couple of seasons.
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And power is power regardless of where it comes from. 29 homers and 57 doubles is a lot and he just put up a season that gave him the 2nd most extra base hits ever for a switch hitter. If you think that's in store for Albies then more power to you.
 
thewupk said:
Why does age matter? Good power is determined by how the league performs as a whole. Why does it matter if he has 'good power' for a 20 year when he's compared to everyone else when determining his WAR?

If you want to suggest Albies can be a somewhat regular 6 WAR player that's fine. But he's going to have to good to plus power to be able to accomplish this. Without that it's going to be hard to do that for a 2B.
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Go back and look at Ramirez in the minors. NOTHING in those numbers, nor his MLB numbers from ages 21-23 suggests he would put up the ridiculous numbers he put up at age 24. Compare HoRam and Ozzie at every age and you will see that Ozzie is trending on a higher track. Will he go nuclear like Ramirez did at age 24, or Altuve at ages 26 and 27? I don't know, and I'm not predicting he will. But comparable age numbers do matter.
 
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thewupk said:
What does his power relative to his age have to do with his WAR again?
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Because we are projecting his WAR into years where he is older?

I can't believe you are arguing this point. I know you know that the studies show power will increase with age and even still you are arguing against it. What is your motivation here?
 
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