FG's Top 46 Recently Graduated Prospects

JCarbo76 said:
Go back and look at Ramirez in the minors. NOTHING in those numbers, nor his MLB numbers from ages 21-23 suggests he would put up the ridiculous numbers he put up at age 24. Compare HoRam and Ozzie at every age and you will see that Ozzie is trending on a higher track. Will he go nuclear like Ramirez did at age 24, or Altuve at ages 26 and 27? I don't know, and I'm not predicting he will. But comparable age numbers do matter.
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Then what is the point at showing a couple of 1% players and saying 'hey...someone did it...albies has a chance'.

Is it within the realm of possibility that Albies hits his 1% and becomes an Altuve hitter of the last two years or what Ramirez did last year? Yes. Is it likely? I would say no it's not. He's likely to have league average power with a good hit tool and play plus defense at 2nd. That's an all-star player.

What is wrong with suggesting his likely outcome is not a HOF level player?
 
thewupk said:
And power is power regardless of where it comes from. 29 homers and 57 doubles is a lot and he just put up a season that gave him the 2nd most extra base hits ever for a switch hitter. If you think that's in store for Albies then more power to you.
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There was a spike in power across the majors last year. As you said, it's relative to the rest of the league. ozzie's spike started in the minors and carried over. and as i said, ozzie won't necessarily have to hit as many homers or XBH considering he'll probably play better defense and run better. i'm not guaranteeing or expecting anything in particular, but to say he doesn't have good enough power is, at this point, extremely pre-mature. the potential is there and there's precedent from guys with similar profiles.
 
thethe said:
Because we are projecting his WAR into years where he is older?

I can't believe you are arguing this point. I know you know that the studies show power will increase with age and even still you are arguing against it. What is your motivation here?
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So just to be clear you think Albies will be a consistent 300+ hitter with a 200+ ISO in his prime?

My motivation is that I don't think Albies has the hitting profile to consistently hit for that type of power. I think an extra base hit line of what you posted earlier is likely what we are going to see from him.
 
thewupk said:
So just to be clear you think Albies will be a consistent 300+ hitter with a 200+ ISO in his prime?

My motivation is that I don't think Albies has the hitting profile to consistently hit for that type of power. I think an extra base hit line of what you posted earlier is likely what we are going to see from him.
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Not sure about consistent but I think he will have a couple of seasons in that range. But the original discussion was about how to get to 6 WAR and I think he will get just as much if not more from defensive contributions and baserunning.
 
Super said:
There was a spike in power across the majors last year. As you said, it's relative to the rest of the league. ozzie's spike started in the minors and carried over. and as i said, ozzie won't necessarily have to hit as many homers or XBH considering he'll probably play better defense and run better. i'm not guaranteeing or expecting anything in particular, but to say he doesn't have good enough power is, at this point, extremely pre-mature. the potential is there and there's precedent from guys with similar profiles.
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He doesn't have good power right now. He showed league average power in the majors last season. Will it improve? Hopefully. Will it have to improve before he can reach the 6 WAR level? Yes that is a fact unless he turns in all-time level defense at 2nd.
 
thewupk said:
Then what is the point at showing a couple of 1% players and saying 'hey...someone did it...albies has a chance'.

Is it within the realm of possibility that Albies hits his 1% and becomes an Altuve hitter of the last two years or what Ramirez did last year? Yes. Is it likely? I would say no it's not. He's likely to have league average power with a good hit tool and play plus defense at 2nd. That's an all-star player.

What is wrong with suggesting his likely outcome is not a HOF level player?
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Again, no one, at least not me, is predicting that Albies will be a one percenter. That said, take all 21 year olds in baseball (major or minors) and Albies is as likely as anyone else, if not more likely than anyone not named Ronald, to do it, based on his track record to this point. Again, speaking only for myself, I would not be disappointed if Ozzie's peak is at the all-star, instead of the hall of fame level. But over 100 years of data tells us that age progressions are absolutely statistically significant. No, they aren't 100% accurate as a predictor--nothing is. But it's probably the best predictor we have.
 
thethe said:
Not sure about consistent but I think he will have a couple of seasons in that range. But the original discussion was about how to get to 6 WAR and I think he will get just as much if not more from defensive contributions and baserunning.
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And he would need a 200 ISO in the current hitting environment to get there. A players power does generally improve as they get older. They also generally get slower and decline on defense as the power starts to peak.
 
JCarbo76 said:
Again, no one, at least not me, is predicting that Albies will be a one percenter. That said, take all 21 year olds in baseball (major or minors) and Albies is as likely as anyone else, if not more likely than anyone not named Ronald, to do it, based on his track record to this point. Again, speaking only for myself, I would not be disappointed if Ozzie's peak is at the all-star, instead of the hall of fame level. But over 100 years of data tells us that age progressions are absolutely statistically significant. No, they aren't 100% accurate as a predictor--nothing is. But it's probably the best predictor we have.
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I agree. And I think it points to Albies being a really good player. Arguing over 4 and 6 WAR is silly. But to get to that 6 WAR level Albies has to have good power while remaining good in what he already does. Determine for yourself how likely you think that is.
 
thewupk said:
He doesn't have good power right now. He showed league average power in the majors last season. Will it improve? Hopefully. Will it have to improve before he can reach the 6 WAR level? Yes that is a fact unless he turns in all-time level defense at 2nd.
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Not really league average. His ISO in the International League last year was .155 vs. a .137 league average. AND HE WAS THE YOUNGEST PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE UNTIL ACUNA WAS PROMOTED. Again, this is a perfect illustration of why age matters. At age 20, he has not reached his peak physical development, yet the league ISO numbers include those from dozens of players who have reached their physical peaks.
 
JCarbo76 said:
Here's the Minor data: Age/League/Iso/OBP-BA. Albies listed first

17 RK FRk .080/.098 ,082/.085

18 A Rk ..074/.149 .058/.036

19 AA/AAA Rk/A- .128/.149 .066/.085

20 AAA A-/A+ .155/.147 .068/.041

Partial Season Major Debut

Ozzie: 224 PA .180 ISO .068 OBP-BA AGE 20, slash line .286/.354/.456

Jose: 234 PA .081 ISO .031 OBP-BA AGE 21, slash line .276/.297/.357

Let's translate: Ozzie played at a higher level than Altuve at every age. At ages 19-20 Ozzie was 2-3 leagues above Altuve and put up comparable, if not better numbers. Looking specifically at age 20 Ozzie put up a slash line of .285/.330/.440 at AAA. Jose, OTOH, put up .301/.357/.448, splitting his season between low and high A.

In his first two full seasons (ages 22 and 23) in MLB, Altuve put up slash lines of .290/.340/.399 and .283/.316/.363. Would anyone here bet against Ozzie bettering those at ages 21 ad 22? I wouldn't. Altuve had a normal power surge at ages 24 and 25, but didn't really blow up until ages 26 and 27.

Thethe is correct is his evaluation.
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You should post more often.
 
thewupk said:
I agree. And I think it points to Albies being a really good player. Arguing over 4 and 6 WAR is silly. But to get to that 6 WAR level Albies has to have good power while remaining good in what he already does. Determine for yourself how likely you think that is.
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Please point to where I said it was "likely" that Albies would be a 6 WAR player? What I said was, for all active major and minor league position players through age 20, he is as likely, if not more likely, than anyone else to do so.
 
JCarbo76 said:
Not really league average. His ISO in the International League last year was .155 vs. a .137 league average. AND HE WAS THE YOUNGEST PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE UNTIL ACUNA WAS PROMOTED. Again, this is a perfect illustration of why age matters. At age 20, he has not reached his peak physical development, yet the league ISO numbers include those from dozens of players who have reached their physical peaks.
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And none of that has anything to do with him being a 6 WAR player in the majors where performance isn't age based.
 
JCarbo76 said:
Please point to where I said it was "likely" that Albies would be a 6 WAR player? What I said was, for all active major and minor league position players through age 20, he is as likely, if not more likely, than anyone else to do so.
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Please point to where I said YOU think it is likely?
 
thewupk said:
Please point to where I said YOU think it is likely?
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OK, fair enough. But I will answer your original question. I don't think its ever fair to say that "So-and-so at age 20 is likely to become a consistent 6 WAR player". What I believe it is fair to say is that "Based on over 100 years of data, if players such as Albies, put up the numbers Albies has through age 20, he is more likely than virtually any other current 20 year old to become a consistent 6 WAR player."

Maybe that means that if an average 20 year old has, say, a 1% chance of becoming a consistent 6 WAR performer in his peak years, Albies might have, say, a 10-15% chance to do so, which is as good as, if not better than, anyone else his age.
 
JCarbo76 said:
OK, fair enough. But I will answer your original question. I don't think its ever fair to say that "So-and-so at age 20 is likely to become a consistent 6 WAR player". What I believe it is fair to say is that "Based on over 100 years of data, if players such as Albies, put up the numbers Albies has through age 20, he is more likely than virtually any other current 20 year old to become a consistent 6 WAR player."

Maybe that means that if an average 20 year old has, say, a 1% chance of becoming a consistent 6 WAR performer in his peak years, Albies might have, say, a 10-15% chance to do so, which is as good as, if not better than, anyone else his age.
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I would agree that Albies has a better chance than most 20 year prospects due to what he does well. I just think he will fall short due to his power profile. By the time he peaks physically to possibly get there I feel he will have declined in a few other areas.
 
thewupk said:
And none of that has anything to do with him being a 6 WAR player in the majors where performance isn't age based.
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Well, lets just look at his MLB numbers at age 20 (and, yes, I realize that is a small sample). In slightly over 1/3 of a season, Ozzie put up a WAR of 1.4. Projecting that over a full season results in a 4 WAR season at age 20. Do we agree that virtually every non-steroid fueled player has a performance curve that peaks around age 27? If so, and if his WAR last year was accurate, is it unreasonable to see that he will peak in the 6+ WAR range for his 26-29 seasons? I don't think it is.

Even if his 1/3 season was a little flukish, and his true ability is reflected in a 2.5-3 WAR season in 2018. How many players in MLB history have posted a 3 WAR season at age 21 and haven't, barring injury, peaked in the 6 WAR range at ages 26-29?
 
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