FG's Top 46 Recently Graduated Prospects

JCarbo76 said:
Well, lets just look at his MLB numbers at age 20 (and, yes, I realize that is a small sample). In slightly over 1/3 of a season, Ozzie put up a WAR of 1.4. Projecting that over a full season results in a 4 WAR season at age 20. Do we agree that virtually every non-steroid fueled player has a performance curve that peaks around age 27? If so, and if his WAR last year was accurate, is it unreasonable to see that he will peak in the 6+ WAR range for his 26-29 seasons? I don't think it is.

Even if his 1/3 season was a little flukish, and his true ability is reflected in a 2.5-3 WAR season in 2018. How many players in MLB history have posted a 3 WAR season at age 21 and haven't, barring injury, peaked in the 6 WAR range at ages 26-29?
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So are we to assume that his power peaks but his defense and speed stay constant through his late 20's as well instead of declining which is what usually happens to players as they get older?
 
thewupk said:
I would agree that Albies has a better chance than most 20 year prospects due to what he does well. I just think he will fall short due to his power profile. By the time he peaks physically to possibly get there I feel he will have declined in a few other areas.
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I don't know. Of all 20 year olds since 1901 with at least 244 plate appearances (Ozzie's 2017 numbers) in MLB, Ozzie had the 25th (out of 128 total) best ISO (.171) of all time. His is better than Hank Aaron's and just behind the 20 year old ISO numbers of Willie Mays, Griffey, Jr. and JHey.

The fact that only 128 20 year old in MLB history have been good enough to earn 244 PAs is extremely significant in itself.

Maybe all of us are underestimating Ozzie's power potential.
 
Albies has more pop than he gets credit for. I doubt he'll add a lot more, though, as he has mostly filled out physically. He could add some loft to his swing, but I'm not sure I want that.
 
JCarbo76 said:
I don't know. Of all 20 year olds since 1901 with at least 244 plate appearances (Ozzie's 2017 numbers) in MLB, Ozzie had the 25th (out of 128 total) best ISO (.171) of all time. His is better than Hank Aaron's and just behind the 20 year old ISO numbers of Willie Mays, Griffey, Jr. and JHey.

The fact that only 128 20 year old in MLB history have been good enough to earn 244 PAs is extremely significant in itself.

Maybe all of us are underestimating Ozzie's power potential.
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Let's examine the numbers closer: Of the 24 20 year olds with higher ISOs than Ozzie you have 10 HoFers (Ott, Teddy, F.Robinson, Foxx, Mantle, Mathews, Kaline, Mays, Griffey, and Cepeda) 5 almost sure-fire HoFers (Stanton, Trout, Harper, Cabrera, and Arod). 2 who probably won't make the HoF (Justin Upton and Heyward). 3 who are multi-year all-stars (Sierra, Vada Pinson, and Druw), 2 whose careers were cut short by injury (Horner and Tony Conigliaro) and 2 for whom it is too early to tell (Correa, if he's not in the Stanton/Trout group, and Devers).
 
JCarbo76 said:
Let's examine the numbers closer: Of the 24 20 year olds with higher ISOs than Ozzie you have 10 HoFers (Ott, Teddy, F.Robinson, Foxx, Mantle, Mathews, Kaline, Mays, Griffey, and Cepeda) 5 almost sure-fire HoFers (Stanton, Trout, Harper, Cabrera, and Arod). 2 who probably won't make the HoF (Justin Upton and Heyward). 3 who are multi-year all-stars (Sierra, Vada Pinson, and Druw), 2 whose careers were cut short by injury (Horner and Tony Conigliaro) and 2 for whom it is too early to tell (Correa, if he's not in the Stanton/Trout group, and Devers).
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I think his ISO numbers in the majors last year are a bit flukish. The sample is relatively small and his numbers don't jive with his minor league numbers. I've been touting Ozzie for a long time but I wouldn't project him to be in the company of the players you cite in terms of career production.
 
JCarbo76 said:
I don't know. Of all 20 year olds since 1901 with at least 244 plate appearances (Ozzie's 2017 numbers) in MLB, Ozzie had the 25th (out of 128 total) best ISO (.171) of all time. His is better than Hank Aaron's and just behind the 20 year old ISO numbers of Willie Mays, Griffey, Jr. and JHey.

The fact that only 128 20 year old in MLB history have been good enough to earn 244 PAs is extremely significant in itself.

Maybe all of us are underestimating Ozzie's power potential.
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That is significant. But we also have to realize that 2017 is one of the most power friendly seasons in the history of baseball so you'd really have to look at how those other players compared to what the league was doing at the time.
 
JCarbo76 said:
Please point to where I said it was "likely" that Albies would be a 6 WAR player? What I said was, for all active major and minor league position players through age 20, he is as likely, if not more likely, than anyone else to do so.
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That's not really saying much lol.

When we talk about projecting players, we do it in the sense of projecting most likely outcomes with the intent on planning around competitive windows.

If a team is trying to predict whether or not they are likely to compete in any given year, they are not going to say, "hey, Albies is as likely as anyone to pump his power unexpectedly and be a 6+ win player, so let's plan our off season around that scenario".

They are going to be realistic and plan around Albies being an above average player this year, and peak as a ~4 win player through his arbitration years.

This whole notion of "here's one guy who did it, so Albies can too" is as obviously dumb as comparing a control pitcher to Maddux. We all know Ramirez and Altuve are great and developed unexpected power. We all know Maddux was amazing based on elite control. We don't need anyone to point out those facts.

It's completely pointless to draw comparisons to the 1% outcome, yet many on these boards insist on doing it over and over.

Shall I list 10 guys who had MORE power in the minors than Albies and ended up not improving their power at the MLB level? Would that prove my point? Of course it wouldn't. The aggregate numbers prove what they prove, and cherry picking outliers is pointless and proves nothing.
 
msstate7 said:
Not even counting the best pitching prospect in the game, wentz. I trust my boy’s (thethe) evaluation
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We will have 5 TOR's in the rotation and at least 3 WAR from every position spot besides LF once Riley gets called up. Can't wait.
 
Enscheff said:
That's not really saying much lol.

When we talk about projecting players, we do it in the sense of projecting most likely outcomes with the intent on planning around competitive windows.

If a team is trying to predict whether or not they are likely to compete in any given year, they are not going to say, "hey, Albies is as likely as anyone to pump his power unexpectedly and be a 6+ win player, so let's plan our off season around that scenario".

They are going to be realistic and plan around Albies being an above average player this year, and peak as a ~4 win player through his arbitration years.

This whole notion of "here's one guy who did it, so Albies can too" is as obviously dumb as comparing a control pitcher to Maddux. We all know Ramirez and Altuve are great and developed unexpected power. We all know Maddux was amazing based on elite control. We don't need anyone to point out those facts.

It's completely pointless to draw comparisons to the 1% outcome, yet many on these boards insist on doing it over and over.

Shall I list 10 guys who had MORE power in the minors than Albies and ended up not improving their power at the MLB level? Would that prove my point? Of course it wouldn't. The aggregate numbers prove what they prove, and cherry picking outliers is pointless and proves nothing.
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Very skillful strawman... literally no one, (even thethe) suggested planning our off-season on the assumption that Albies will be a 6 win plyer.
 
mfree80 said:
Very skillful strawman... literally no one, (even thethe) suggested planning our off-season on the assumption that Albies will be a 6 win plyer.
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Planning roster construction is the sole reason teams are interested in projecting player performance.

We are trying to think along with teams as we play wannabe GM.

So no, it is not a straw man. I'm not certain you know what that term means. Just because you don't follow the logic that connects two points does not make one of those points a straw man.
 
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