GDT: 3/29/18 - Atlanta Braves vs. Philthies (ITS OPENING DAYYYYY)

Enscheff said:
Remember when I said Snit deserves another chance to prove he isn’t an idiot now that he has an analytical FO feeding him info? Well, first game of the season he proves yet again he doesn’t know how to manage a BP properly.

Albies hit that ball out with a swing that shows he may have the power we are hoping makes him a 5+ win player. That was impressive.

The Braves didn’t sell out opening day. Those thinking the Braves will have higher attendance than last year should probably reconsider their position on the subject.
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You wait until those ticket buyers in the northern red area that JS told us about find out The Battery opened 5 new restaurants buddy. They'll be storming the place.
 
thethe said:
But how much worse is the question and up 5 when dominating in the 6th inning with 68 pitches calls for more inputs into the decision.

And again, you know it's a small sample. Something you would chastise almost anyone about in the past.
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the finding about pitchers facing the order a third time is actually robust and covers a very large sample

when you have a result like that you assume it applies to Nola until he proves otherwise...and in his career he has not proved otherwise, and that includes the double he gave up to Inciarte
 
If the Phillies are going to use that strategy, they are going to have to find some relievers that can go multiple innings. I understand the analytics behind the decision, and the decision to pull Nola is defensible from that standpoint. But I doubt the Phillies have enough pitchers to change to suit every platoon matchup if they're pulling starters after 5 innings/ 68 pitches. And of course the pitchers you bring in have to have the talent level to perform better than the starter they replace, or the analytics are rendered useless. The teams that have had success handling their staffs in this manner have had 1) a bullpen with multiple decent pitchers, and 2) an ace on whom they can count for one 7-8 inning stint per week.
 
thewupk said:
When it's a common league wide issue I don't consider it a small sample size. A small sample size is getting excited about Jace Peterson hitting well for a month.

Again last year he was a sub 3 ERA pitcher through the order the first two times. Through the 3rd it was over 5. That tells me he commonly would go through the order the 3rd time and give up a couple of runs and then get taken out. The same thing that happens to a lot of pitchers. Some teams are actively trying to avoid that situation.
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I didn't think what Kapler did yesterday was too much out of the ordinary. It's opening day and guys have to build up their strength. If it's July, I might wonder a little more. A lot is going to depend on how well a bullpen is constructed. If there is a big-time return of the long man in the bullpen, we will see a lot of different usage patterns emerging.

But basically, you're right. Pitchers tend to do worse the more times they go through the line-up. Nothing really new there. How teams are reacting to that reality is the story.
 
My own view is lifting Nola in that situation was a close call but I would not criticise the manager for it
 
DirkPiggler said:
If the Phillies are going to use that strategy, they are going to have to find some relievers that can go multiple innings. I understand the analytics behind the decision, and the decision to pull Nola is defensible from that standpoint. But I doubt the Phillies have enough pitchers to change to suit every platoon matchup if they're pulling starters after 5 innings/ 68 pitches. And of course the pitchers you bring in have to have the talent level to perform better than the starter they replace, or the analytics are rendered useless. The teams that have had success handling their staffs in this manner have had 1) a bullpen with multiple decent pitchers, and 2) an ace on whom they can count for one 7-8 inning stint per week.
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the Phillies believe their bullpen is a strength...remains to be seen...but the move was not made by a manager who thinks his bullpen is weak
 
nsacpi said:
the Phillies believe their bullpen is a strength...remains to be seen...but the move was not made by a manager who thinks his bullpen is weak
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their tv guys were talking about their bullpen like it's full of studs. they had a solid 2nd half last year, but they have a tonnnn to prove before i consider luis garcia and adam morgan BP aces. neris and neshek are good tho
 
SKIP Carey was talking about the difficulty of the third time through the order when I was a young child watching my earliest Braves games.

I've watched college teams game consistently game plan this very thing with Sunday starters essentially by committee. This is not a great secret of the game that has been unlocked by nerds with calloused asses.
 
Super said:
their tv guys were talking about their bullpen like it's full of studs. they had a solid 2nd half last year, but they have a tonnnn to prove before i consider luis garcia and adam morgan BP aces. neris and neshek are good tho
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How do you feel about Hoby Milner?
 
Southcack77 said:
SKIP Carey was talking about the difficulty of the third time through the order when I was a young child watching my earliest Braves games.

I've watched college teams game consistently game plan this very thing with Sunday starters essentially by committee. This is not a great secret of the game that has been unlocked by nerds with calloused asses.
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yes...this is not something new...but I think the analysis is more nuanced and thorough...and teams are more disciplined when it comes to acting on analysis rather than gut feeling
 
thewupk said:
Yeah I'm sure it was just a couple of times. So you don't think pitchers get worse the 3rd time through the order on the reg?
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I liked souths suggestion on stratifying the population of pitchers into several buckets and see what the degradation in results looks like.
 
thethe said:
I liked souths suggestion on stratifying the population of pitchers into several buckets and see what the degradation in results looks like.
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there is a body of data on Nola in that regard...not a large sample but it does not contradict what the larger body of data for other pitchers shows
 
I was confused why the Phillies didn't bring in Neshek at any point. I thought he was their bullpen ace that they just paid $16 mil for?
 
I think the issue for the Phillies yesterday was our lineup leans lefty and their pen has only 2 lefties...neither pitched well...and the platoon matchup advantages swung our way once they were done
 
nsacpi said:
the Phillies believe their bullpen is a strength...remains to be seen...but the move was not made by a manager who thinks his bullpen is weak
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In that case the decisions make some sense. I don't share that sentiment, and that's not based on yesterday.

I'm curious to see how many pitchers they use today and tomorrow.
 
Did Kapler just take out there last lefty when ender/Freeman are still to hit in this game? Oof
 
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