GDT #95: July 13, 2014 Braves (Teheran) @ Cubs (Not Our Wood) 2:20 EST

AerchAngel said:
Us blacks are use to "just let it go", I am not going to let it go. Dan said in several posts that CB is not an elite defensive catcher and I said the same (his track record does no proceed the talk about his defense) but yet you would tell a black "you are an idiot" and just ignore what he said. Don't call blacks idiots when we bring up stats to back up our position. You also said, " I only reserve the word "idiot" for me, you said it I didn't and that implies you hate me, maybe because I am black, we will never know, but the bottom line is this, if you hate me so much, just don't respond to any of my posts. I know you hate me that is why I never respond to yours. If we agree to that, then I will move on. Don't call me names, which I never called you one until you started it, then we are square.
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Haha, you still call me Dan. That's great.
 
sturg33 said:
Let's talk about OBP shall we?

Amongst our regular starters, he is only better than BJ.

When you start talking about iso OBP. He is the worst. Meaning if his bloop singles aren't falling, he is awful.

His iso slugging is worse than everyone except for TLS. Meaning, when he does get his hits, they almost always singles.

His defense is rated last in the league. I know you don't believe that. But it is what it is.

He is slow as hell.

Am I happy he's hot right now? Yes. Good. If he can produce another 2013, then great. But the smarter posters on this board correctly pointed out that last year was unsustainable. And we are seeing that this year.
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I don't believe looking at the last few months is necessarily a good predictor of the future. And I'm perfectly capable of reading the saber stats. I don't blindly follow them as some do. I think some are quite useful. I think others are flawed.

And I've yet to get comfortable with either defensive metric. I'm not a flat-earther, and I'm not stupid. I do not believe that Chris Johnson gives back all his offensive value on defense. Nor do I believe Jason Heyward is a $25m player or among the best players in the National League because he has an elite WAR. And since the point of that metric is to reduce a player's value down to one number and it shows wild inaccuracies because the defensive component overstates defensive value and you need five years of defense to approximate what a players actual value is, maybe you shouldn't either.

Chris is a good player. He's a decent defender, a bit short on range, but makes the plays he gets to. Prone to go through periods where he doesn't manage the strike zone well, and would perhaps be an elite hitter instead of a very good one if he could consistently recognize strikes and make a bit more contact. He's never had a season as low as his OPS is for a season. I think he's due for a nice correction in the second half.

That's a pretty good analysis of the player. I watch him most every day. You can disagree, that's fine. But stop calling him **** in the middle of a series when his bat carried our ass. Talk about Melvin's .210/.270/.330 slash line, or why we have to play with a short bench because of Uggla's utter ineptitude.
 
AerchAngel said:
Us blacks are use to "just let it go", I am not going to let it go. Dan said in several posts that CB is not an elite defensive catcher and I said the same (his track record does no proceed the talk about his defense) but yet you would tell a black "you are an idiot" and just ignore what he said. Don't call blacks idiots when we bring up stats to back up our position. You also said, " I only reserve the word "idiot" for me, you said it I didn't and that implies you hate me, maybe because I am black, we will never know, but the bottom line is this, if you hate me so much, just don't respond to any of my posts. I know you hate me that is why I never respond to yours. If we agree to that, then I will move on. Don't call me names, which I never called you one until you started it, then we are square.
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Don't ever change, AA. Don't ever change.
 
I am so happy to see we got the win! Julio gave up two homers, but he got the win as well! I see Avilan still sucks and shows even more why a starter isn't as important to us as a good lefty in the bullpen is...

Also, I hope the guys bat's stay hot! Justin, Heyward, Simmons and Johnson seem to swinging it well!

Oh and three walks for Simmons. Tight.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Chris is a good player. He's a decent defender, a bit short on range, but makes the plays he gets to. Prone to go through periods where he doesn't manage the strike zone well, and would perhaps be an elite hitter instead of a very good one if he could consistently recognize strikes and make a bit more contact. He's never had a season as low as his OPS is for a season. I think he's due for a nice correction in the second half.
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You just described someone that is not Chris Johnson. How is he supposed to have a correction when his BABIP is already stupidly high. He's already getting very good luck and you think he'll get more? Do you expect it to get back in the .400 range like last year because that's not happening. The fact that you think he's a "very good" hitter is just strange when there's nothing on the planet that even comes close to indicating that flawed notion. You post is actually an incredibly poor analysis of the player and the fact that you think someone can't call a spade a spade just because he actually did something positive for a stretch of two whole games is ridiculous. It would be like someone white knighting BJ just because he's been decent for the month of July. If you have to point out others being worse than it's not a very compelling case you're making for the worst starting 3B in the NL...
 
AerchAngel said:
Don't talk to me boy, or address me and stay the hell out of my posts or even respond to my posts, boy.
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I just find it funny that you were supposedly going to move on the day before, even going as far as deleting some of your insane rants. And now, all of a sudden, you're "not going to let it go."

Seriously, you're a hoot.
 
sturg33 said:
AA pulling a Bill Shanks in this thread
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No, the boy tried, and I strongly said tried calling me an idiot when I brought up STATS and FACTS to back up my claim and when Dans Not Cool said the same thing, he ignored him. He has an axe to grind with me and as a mod he should know better than that. Mods do not call posters names, SAV doesn't do it.

Because I am black he just thinks I will just lie down like a slave to a master when calling us names, not going to happen on my watch.
 
CyYoung31 said:
I just find it funny that you were supposedly going to move on the day before, even going as far as deleting some of your insane rants. And now, all of a sudden, you're "not going to let it go."

Seriously, you're a hoot.
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I find it funny you still running your mouth, I told you to not address me or my posts, now go bother someone else.
 
BremanFan88 said:
You just described someone that is not Chris Johnson. How is he supposed to have a correction when his BABIP is already stupidly high. He's already getting very good luck and you think he'll get more? Do you expect it to get back in the .400 range like last year because that's not happening. The fact that you think he's a "very good" hitter is just strange when there's nothing on the planet that even comes close to indicating that flawed notion. You post is actually an incredibly poor analysis of the player and the fact that you think someone can't call a spade a spade just because he actually did something positive for a stretch of two whole games is ridiculous. It would be like someone white knighting BJ just because he's been decent for the month of July. If you have to point out others being worse than it's not a very compelling case you're making for the worst starting 3B in the NL...
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I want to preface this by saying I agree with you that Johnson shouldn't have correction unless he can hit some doubles and homers and keep his LD% where it is.

But he doesn't have good luck, Johnson hits 27% line drives, that's gonna lead to a very high BABIP. Infact you could say that .360 may be a touch low but he is slow as dirt so he's less likely ot beat out grounders. The only correction for Johnson is HR/FB, K rate and BB rate. He should have one more homer which would move his numbers to .280/.303/.381 not much of an up tick. If you add about 2 walks and a few more balls in play his numbers improve but to what I said last year when he was hot. He'd be a decent player, but only really an option because we have nothing at 3B.

I think though it's not too annoying to point out that El Juan Chubbard (best nickname ever) is hitting .240/.313/.515. Wouldn't it be nice to have him as an option? Maybe platoon the 2? And have done what I said and shipped off Schafer or Reed Johnson cause having 2 backup OFers and no bat was dumb?
 
BremanFan88 said:
You just described someone that is not Chris Johnson. How is he supposed to have a correction when his BABIP is already stupidly high. He's already getting very good luck and you think he'll get more? Do you expect it to get back in the .400 range like last year because that's not happening. The fact that you think he's a "very good" hitter is just strange when there's nothing on the planet that even comes close to indicating that flawed notion. You post is actually an incredibly poor analysis of the player and the fact that you think someone can't call a spade a spade just because he actually did something positive for a stretch of two whole games is ridiculous. It would be like someone white knighting BJ just because he's been decent for the month of July. If you have to point out others being worse than it's not a very compelling case you're making for the worst starting 3B in the NL...
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Did you even read the post? It acknowledges his flaws. I don't think they result in him being crap. You do. It's ok. Have a great all star break. Go Braves.
 
Nerfherders said:
Since June 9th CJ is at .323/.358/.469/.827 with a .418 BABIP, so it looks like the correction is already happening.
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I just let everyone bicker. It's kind of funny. I like CJ and he's really been giving us a solid bit the last month or so. Is one good month indicative of a career? Nah, look at Dan Uggla, but I like Chris so it doesn't really matter. haha
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I don't believe looking at the last few months is necessarily a good predictor of the future. And I'm perfectly capable of reading the saber stats. I don't blindly follow them as some do. I think some are quite useful. I think others are flawed.

And I've yet to get comfortable with either defensive metric. I'm not a flat-earther, and I'm not stupid. I do not believe that Chris Johnson gives back all his offensive value on defense. Nor do I believe Jason Heyward is a $25m player or among the best players in the National League because he has an elite WAR. And since the point of that metric is to reduce a player's value down to one number and it shows wild inaccuracies because the defensive component overstates defensive value and you need five years of defense to approximate what a players actual value is, maybe you shouldn't either.

Chris is a good player. He's a decent defender, a bit short on range, but makes the plays he gets to. Prone to go through periods where he doesn't manage the strike zone well, and would perhaps be an elite hitter instead of a very good one if he could consistently recognize strikes and make a bit more contact. He's never had a season as low as his OPS is for a season. I think he's due for a nice correction in the second half.

That's a pretty good analysis of the player. I watch him most every day. You can disagree, that's fine. But stop calling him **** in the middle of a series when his bat carried our ass. Talk about Melvin's .210/.270/.330 slash line, or why we have to play with a short bench because of Uggla's utter ineptitude.
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Chris Johnson is a career .287/.323/.428 hitter. Since he started in 2009, there are 60 qualified 3B.

BB rate- 56th

K rate- 54th

IsoSlugging- 39th

BABIP- 1st

OBP-34th

SLG- 22nd

wRC+- 25th

So ignoring for a second defense, he's not a good hitter. He's not a terrible hitter, but he certainly isn't a good or above average one (for a 3B). On no planet is he a "very good" one. He could possibly be a good hitter if he could recognize strikes better. but you could say that about virtually every hitter in baseball.

Defensively, he's toward the bottom (54th according to fangraphs)...ahead of such studs as Edwin, Cabrera, Reynolds, Young, Wiggington (guys in the lineup for their bat). On no planet is he considered a "decent defender."

Johnson's OPS *should rise in the 2nd half to closer to his career (.750 vs. .680), but it's not a big surprise when someone is 10% less than their career numbers.
 
So he needs to strike out less and walk more. Agreed.

His power is above average, as evidenced by your percentile rating. 22nd.

BA is not included in here. It should be. I agree that walks are a good thing and that he needs to take more of them. Just because his value is hit-driven doesn't make it any less real. A hit is worth more than a walk. Hope you agree. (If the bases are empty, means nothing, but men on 2nd and third, it means a lot). Maybe 1.25 * walk! or conversely, a walk is .8 of a hit? Something like that.

Finally, BABIP is first. That doesn't mean he's the luckiest SOB in the league, it means he hits line drives. If the league average is 18% and he's at 27%, he's 50% more likely to hit a line drive.

To me, there's huge value in sustained high BABIP. And whatever flaws CJ has, this is where he hangs his hat. It's not going away.

While I understand his limitations and agree with some of the posted comments, I don't think he is void of value. He's a good player. He's a genius at hitting line drives. And that's worth $5m a year whether he has short range, walks too little and strikes out too much or not.
 
If you look at projected production by position we are ranked #30 out of 30 teams at third base.

CJ is ok as weakest links go. But that's about it.
 
nsacpi said:
If you look at projected production by position we are ranked #30 out of 30 teams at third base.

CJ is ok as weakest links go. But that's about it.
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...again pointing to the performance in the first half, which was wanting, to be sure. Never said otherwise. He'll do better, I'm certain.

So where were BJ Upton and Dan Uggla on that stat? And where was everybody on that scale last year?

A wise poster once said the last two-three years have better predictive value than the last three months.
 
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