GDT: Braves @ LA Freddies 04/18

McCann'sCans said:
No one is asking him to manage like its the late innings of a World Series. It made all the sense in the world to bring in a half decent reliever in the 4th. As Enscheff notes, leverage changes during the course of a game. Use Minter, keep the game 3-0, and see what happens. If the Dodgers score a couple runs, then let Newcomb throw 2+ innings. If the Braves score a couple runs, then stay away from him altogether.

This is the issue with Snit. Consider two scenarios:
3-0 game, 4th inning, runners on second and third, two out, Freeman-Turner-Muncy due up.
3-1 game, 6th inning, no runners on, no outs, Smith-Bellinger-Rios due up.

Snit believes that because the first scenario happens earlier in the game, its lower leverage by default. Therefore he uses Newcomb. In reality, that was a huge moment in the game and we all knew it in real time. I texted a friend as soon as Newcomb came in saying "why is Snit risking giving up the game by bringing Newcomb in to face Freeman when we are still within reach?" That isn't Monday Morning Quarterbacking, its a manager who has no comprehension of leverage.
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Again, the problem is that Newk is on the roster at all. This is just like last season when Tomlin would get called on every two weeks or so only to implode - regardless of the situation. Nobody can perform when they're used that way.

If you're going to carry someone on the roster, Snitker is going to try to get them in a game at some point whether his reasoning is to "get him some work" or "preserve other Pitchers' innings and/or health".

Get Newk off the roster rather than worry about when Snitker uses him - he's going to implode whenever that is.
 
Of course I'd rather have Newcomb off the roster and I agree that is also an issue. But the fact that we have to constantly worry about Snitker-proofing the roster tells you all you need to know. Every team in the majors has a bad pitcher or two on their roster. Most are smart enough to not toss them into a high leverage situation just to get them work. We don't have that luxury.
 
McCann'sCans said:
No one is asking him to manage like its the late innings of a World Series. It made all the sense in the world to bring in a half decent reliever in the 4th. As Enscheff notes, leverage changes during the course of a game. Use Minter, keep the game 3-0, and see what happens. If the Dodgers score a couple runs, then let Newcomb throw 2+ innings. If the Braves score a couple runs, then stay away from him altogether.

This is the issue with Snit. Consider two scenarios:
3-0 game, 4th inning, runners on second and third, two out, Freeman-Turner-Muncy due up.
3-1 game, 6th inning, no runners on, no outs, Smith-Bellinger-Rios due up.

Snit believes that because the first scenario happens earlier in the game, its lower leverage by default. Therefore he uses Newcomb. In reality, that was a huge moment in the game and we all knew it in real time. I texted a friend as soon as Newcomb came in saying "why is Snit risking giving up the game by bringing Newcomb in to face Freeman when we are still within reach?" That isn't Monday Morning Quarterbacking, its a manager who has no comprehension of leverage.
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Exactly. This.

The fire needed to be put out in the 4th with Minter, not have gasoline thrown on it with Newk.
 
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McCann'sCans said:
Of course I'd rather have Newcomb off the roster and I agree that is also an issue. But the fact that we have to constantly worry about Snitker-proofing the roster tells you all you need to know. Every team in the majors has a bad pitcher or two on their roster. Most are smart enough to not toss them into a high leverage situation just to get them work. We don't have that luxury.
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Since when is down 3 runs to the Dodgers with Kershaw cruising on the mound considered "high-leverage"? If it's a team that you felt like you had a legitimate chance to come back against, I understand the point you guys are making. Since we're interested in diving so deep into the numbers, what was the Braves' win probability when Newk was put into the game?

They were going to lose, so Snitker used the worst option in a game that was over to preserve the rest of the pen.
 
clvclv said:
Since when is down 3 runs to the Dodgers with Kershaw cruising on the mound considered "high-leverage"? If it's a team that you felt like you had a legitimate chance to come back against, I understand the point you guys are making. Since we're interested in diving so deep into the numbers, what was the Braves' win probability when Newk was put into the game?

They were going to lose, so Snitker used the worst option in a game that was over to preserve the rest of the pen.
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Sure: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/game...ilter=&resultFilter=&hf=winProbability#662617

At the time Ynoa walked Betts, the Dodgers win prob was 87%. By the time Newk finished the inning it was 97%.

When Minter was brought in for the 6th, the Dodgers win prob was 85%.

So why was the 6th so much more important than the 4th?
 
Enscheff said:
Sure: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/game...ilter=&resultFilter=&hf=winProbability#662617

At the time Ynoa walked Betts, the Dodgers win prob was 87%. By the time Newk finished the inning it was 97%.

When Minter was brought in for the 6th, the Dodgers win prob was 85%.

So why was the 6th so much more important than the 4th?
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If Minter comes in and gets Freeman, the win probability probably ends the inning between 80-85%- making a win something like 5-6 times more likely than it was after Newcomb finished the inning. So if you have that situation 10 times in a season and you manage it correctly, you probably earn yourself at least one extra win just by managing it correctly.

But even ignoring the above- the point remains. If Minter is allowed to throw when the opponent has an 85+% win probability, why not have him do it earlier in the game when there is more to lose if you don't get an out (runners on base, middle of the order) and more to gain from getting an out (more time to come back)?
 
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