Grading Waldrep's Stuff

Strike3urout said:
Maybe…but then you basically have Ian Anderson: great change-up, but straight fastball with inconsistent command, and so-so breaking ball. So his ceiling is MOR. It’s not that those aren’t useful, but that is disappointing for a first round pick.
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MOR is disappointing for a late 1st?
 
Strike3urout said:
Maybe…but then you basically have Ian Anderson: great change-up, but straight fastball with inconsistent command, and so-so breaking ball. So his ceiling is MOR. It’s not that those aren’t useful, but that is disappointing for a first round pick.
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How disappointing is it really for end of the first round?

If you have two elite pitches and a starter's frame you're gone by the 20s.
 
The movement profile of the split is there in black and white. The numbers are literally there compared to every other split in MLB.
 
Enscheff and the data doesn't lie. I stated this a few times noting the exact same data as shown. That splitter is useless to mlb hitters who have a smidgen of an eye. I think he can be an effective reliever..but dream on him starting. Doesn't look good though.
 
Question about Waldreps split. I haven't really seen it but could it be one of those things where it's so good it's bad like Luke Jackson's slider? Hitters just spit on it and wait for the other stuff
 
Slippyjms said:
Question about Waldreps split. I haven't really seen it but could it be one of those things where it's so good it's bad like Luke Jackson's slider? Hitters just spit on it and wait for the other stuff
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I’m not sure what this means. Luke Jackson had a good slider.
 
Enscheff said:
Waldrep has thrown enough FAs, FSs, and SLs to rank them against other pitchers. His command/execution has been pretty awful, so let's see if the stuff is good enough to even worry about waiting for him to "learn how to pitch".

FA: 95.8 mph (115 of 562), 4.0" Arm-side (493 of 592), 13.8" Vertical (421 of 592)

This movement profile is disappointing. He comes over the top, as evidenced by the very small amount of arm-side run (similar to Ian Anderson), but the low spin rate of 2161 (443 of 592) doesn't give the FA much rise. I'm not sure why the Braves allow a guy with such low spin to throw a FA as his only fastball, but we've seen it a lot lately where guys very clearly should be focusing on a 2 seamer....but they aren't. This is not a good pitch on it's own, and will rely on location and playing off the split to be effective. We are already starting to see why Waldrep has a low margin for error when relying on a FA that simply doesn't move like an MLB FA.

FS: 85.9 mph (59 of 90), 8.1" Arm-side (69 of 90), 2.2" Vertical (28 of 90, lower is better)

While this pitch doesn't seem to have an impressive movement profile, it has a remarkably low spin rate of only 690 (3 of 90). The only pitches with less spin currently in the sport are Waldron's knuckleball at 250, and 2 other splitters at 520 and 668. Is that good? Who knows, but it does produce 2" more of arm-side run than the other comparable splitters. This is a very unique pitch, and learning how to use it as a weapon rather than a novelty will be the key to his success.

SL: 87.0 mph (118 of 469), 1.7" Glove-side (401 of 469), 1.5" Vertical (215 of 469, lower is better)

This is not a very good pitch, and like everything else, the spin rate is low at 2196 (395 of 469). It drops a little, but doesn't move across the plate much at all...which is the whole point of a slider. That's literally while they are called sliders.

Overall: The data shows us a guy with low spin FA and SL, and a no spin splitter that doesn't seem to translate into notable movement. I'm not sure what the Braves were scouting when they popped him in the first round, but it certainly wasn't the usual pitch metrics most teams seem to be looking for with amateur arms. He has good velocity, but he can't spin the ball to create much movement. It's hard to suggest a sinker since it will look very similar to the split, and his breaking ball doesn't move enough in the opposite direction to be an obvious pitch off the split either. Unless he figures out how to weaponize that no spin split, it's hard to see a path forward unless the command/execution becomes elite.

This arsenal is disappointing, and I hope he figures something out.
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Waldrep seems to have reinvented himself a bit in 2025, so let's see what he's throwing now. Spoiler...it's 6 different pitches as classified by Statcast in reverse order of usage:

FF: 94.2 mph, 2297 rpm, 0.7" arm, 11.1" vert

This was not a good pitch in the last review, and it has somehow gotten worse. I didn't even bother looking up how the components rank. While it's a good thing he uses it the least of all his pitches, it is very disappointing it took Murphy going on a rehab assignment for someone to tell him to throw a sinker instead when a nobody like me sitting at my PC could tell that was the best plan over a year ago: "I'm not sure why the Braves allow a guy with such low spin to throw a FA as his only fastball, but we've seen it a lot lately where guys very clearly should be focusing on a 2 seamer....but they aren't."

SL: 87.8 mph, 2224 rpm, 1.6" glove, -0.3" vert (133 of 487)

He has added some extra sink to this pitch, making it much more interesting. The quality of pitches he throws more often may suggest this pitch is a bit redundant, and a guy working on execution may want to consider shelving redundant pitches.

CU: 82.1 mph, 2365 rpm, 7.7" glove (105 of 269), -13.0" vert (70 of 269)

Finally, a pitch worth talking about. This thing is new, and it is good. This is the breaking ball he should be focusing on, and it could be a real weapon.

SI: 95.7 mph (92 of 465), 2197 rpm, 12.3" arm (421 of 465), 10.4" vert (327 of 465, lower is better)

Oof, so he can't make a FF rise, and he can't make a SI sink. At least he has plus velocity for a few years? In my opinion working around this lack of a MLB-quality arm-side fastball will be his biggest hurdle (other than control/execution, which is common to all young pitchers). However, the next pitch provides great hope for the viability of his mediocre sinker.

FC: 93.2 mph (18 of 287), 2320 rpm, 1.9" glove (149 of 287), 8.5" vert (175 of 287)

Now we can see why this is his most often used heater...it's very clearly his best. Double plus velocity with average-ish movement makes for a plus pitch. The quality of this pitch should make the sinker play waaaaay up due to the 14" difference in horizontal movement between those 2 fastballs. They should tunnel together perfectly, and should be very hard for hitters to figure out where the barrel needs to be on any given swing.

FS: 86.9 mph (54 of 120), 711 rpm, 6.5" arm (110 of 120), 2.0" vert (81 of 120)

Ahh, yes, the famous "deadly" split. His calling card when drafted, and his most often thrown pitch. The pitch, on average, with plus velocity (a trend with all Waldrep's pitches), terrible horizontal movement, and above average sink that is somehow still considered "deadly" by scouts, fans, and even the Stuff+ metric. Why do we not hear about Schwelly's "deadly split" when his sinks more, moves more, and has a larger velocity delta from his fastball than Waldrep's? If Waldrep's split is "deadly" what is Schwelly's? Armageddon inducing? An extinction event? Something we should be starting a new religion to worship?

No, Waldrep's split isn't some world ending mega pitch that brings hitters to their knees. It's a usable off speed pitch with some sink that acts as his change-up. The key to Waldrep's early success has been the sinker/cutter tunneling, and the new plus curve that has the potential to be a real out pitch. So now that Waldrep has carved out an arsenal that should be a sinker/cutter confusion sandwich to all batters, curves to put away RHHs, and splits to LHHs, it's all about the same thing success comes down to for every pitcher with MLB-caliber stuff..."learning how to pitch", and not getting hurt.
 
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Everything Schwelly throws is good/great, which is why he is a TOR guy. However, people don't trip over themselves calling his split "deadly" while masturbating to RPM data like they do with Waldrep's.
 
If I'm going to masturbate to one of his pitches it will be that curve, or the thought of batters not knowing which way the heater is going to move. The split barely gives me a quarter chub.
 
So Waldrep is progressing. That's the best part is he's learned a new pitch and it's working. Maybe some more tweaking here and there and he can be a 3-4. Glass half full so far.
 
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