Legal/scotus thread

The youthful drinking doesn't bother me as much as his reaction on being called on it. I'm the last person given my misbehavior with alcohol and weed that can cast aspersions on Kavanaugh. I'm no paragon of virtue, but at least I can admit that I was young and stupid and while this isn't about me, this episode made me look back on some of the things I did while under the influence. Kavanaugh strikes me as someone who hasn't done that. Maybe he has and I don't think he should be expected to open a vein and bleed all over the Judiciary Committee, but a tad more contrition would have gone a long way for him.
 
weso1 said:
Open-minded Americans of all stripes should see that — emotions aside — Ford’s testimony is completely devoid of credibility: so much so, that Mitchell told the Senate this week that Ford’s allegations do not even meet the preponderance of evidence standard. That standard, which governs in civil litigation, asks whether it is more likely than not that an event occurred.

USA TODAY
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This is my first and probably my only post about this. While I don't think I could ever "totally dismiss or disbelieve" a woman who has claimed to have been sexually assaulted unless there was real proof she made it up ala the Duke Lacrosse team case, her accusations and/or testimony really didn't even enter in this for me. Anyone who watched this guy, watched his demeanor, his temper, his disdain any question he didn't want to hear, his "4 year old who didn't get the toy they wanted in Wal-Mart today attitude" and still supports him has is in my opinion willing to "make a deal with the devil" to get this guy on the SCOTUS, probably either they want to make sure Trump doesn't get impeached or charged while he's in office, or more likely wants to see Roe reversed and in their minds anyone willing to do those things is using "the enemy of my enemy" logic.

I am pro-life and make no apologies for it, but I am definitely NOT one of those aholes who stands outside abortion clinics yelling and cursing and condemning the women who go into them. For one thing even if Roe is reversed it won't end abortions, it'll just make things more difficult for the women who want them and it'll undoubtedly make a few people very wealthy either for performing them as a "surgical procedure" or who set up "privatized clinics" in states where abortions are still allowed by state laws. In the end little will change except a guy with the personality of that spoiled 4 year old will get a lifetime job he shouldn't get.

There was and is a small army of judges out there, men and women, who would be happy to vote to overturn Roe if it meant getting on the Supreme Court but not very many who have already said they don't believe a sitting president can be charged, tried, etc., while he's in office, ironically the opposite of what I believe Repubs got during their endless pursuit of Bill Clinton with the Paula Jones thing as well as Monica and the "blue dress issue".

As for the Dems handling of this being clumsy at best, remember what Bedell used to say about the Repubs during their attempts to "get" Obama? Didn't it go something like "they could screw up a one car funeral procession"? Pretty accurate I'd say about the Dems and the Repubs. I would think this is what happened when you get so deep into BS, partisanship, happily accepting Pavlovian tactics for followers and believing your own press clippings to a point where you really can't even recognize THE TRUTH anymore, unless it has been sliced and diced and sterilized for use in your daily party's message.

As a nation we continue to get what we deserve. Yea, us!!!
 
Tapate50 said:
I feel like the GOP felt it HAD to double down because of how loose the evidence was against Kav. I hate it because they could have used it for a pivot to a better candidate .
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Agreed. Grassley, Graham, and co had to be pulling their hair out as Kavanaugh became less likable through the process, but they also knew that backing down would set a precedent that would be tested with every subsequent nominee. If that was intentional by anyone on the Dem side then it was a brilliant and despicable maneuver.
 
Murkowski's no vote on cloture suggests she might be a no in the final vote. Might ultimately come down to how Collins decides at 3 today. I'm not sure Manchin will want to be the lone Democrat who puts him over the top. My best guess is the final vote goes 50-50 with Pence breaking the tie.
 
Not too surprised to see Murkowski vote no.

Flake, Collins and Manchin are harder to figure out.

Manchin is in pretty good shape for re-election. He probably wants to play it safe and please his constituents by voting yes. However, I do not think he will vote yes if it is the decisive vote.

Between Flake and Collins, I think Flake is more likely to vote no. Collins, in spite of her reputation for independence, usually sticks with the leadership. And she seems to believe whatever private assurances Kavanaugh gave her.

Flake seems more disturbed by Kavanaugh's performance last Friday. I think he is looking for a deal with Coons and the Dems to move expeditiously on the next guy (or gal) if Kavanaugh is defeated. His relationship with Coons might be the key here. I predict he votes no. This puts Manchin on the spot and I think he will vote no too.
 
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nsacpi said:
Not too surprised to see Murkowski vote no.

Flake, Collins and Manchin are harder to figure out.

Manchin is in pretty good shape for re-election. He probably wants to play it safe and please his constituents by voting yes. However, I do not think he will vote yes if it is the decisive vote.

Between Flake and Collins, I think Flake is more likely to vote no. Collins, in spite of her reputation for independence, usually sticks with the leadership. And she seems to believe whatever private assurances Kavanaugh gave her.

Flake seems more disturbed by Kavanaugh's performance last Friday. I think he is looking for a deal with Coons and the Dems to move expeditiously on the next guy (or gal) if Kavanaugh is defeated. His relationship with Coons might be the key here. I predict he votes no. This puts Manchin on the spot and I think he will vote no too.
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I think Collins is far more likely to see her re-election chances hurt by a Yes vote than Manchin is by a no vote. Anger by women will outlast anger from conservatives, especially if their boy gets through and they have control of the court.
 
Manchin is ahead of his Republican rival by just 4 points according to fivethirtyeight. That's down quite a bit from an earlier poll. While a lot of that difference probably is due to margins of error, I think a good bit reflects a tightening of the polls which is almost certainly due to the Kavanaugh confirmation process.. If Manchin ends up voting against Kavanaugh in a 49-51 failure of his confirmation, I think it becomes very likely Manchin loses.

I'm not sure Manchin can afford to vote against Kavanaugh.

I think the only reason the Senator from North Dakota voted no was because she has pretty much given up hope of getting re-elected and would rather not anger the Democratic party as that wouldn't be great for her post-Senate life.
 
bravesnumberone said:
I think Collins is far more likely to see her re-election chances hurt by a Yes vote than Manchin is by a no vote. Anger by women will outlast anger from conservatives, especially if their boy gets through and they have control of the court.
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Manchin's election is less than 5 weeks from now. Collins isn't up for 2 years.

If Manchin votes against in a 49-51 affair, the furor will not die down at all by the election. Two years from now in the midst of a presidential election, Collins will not see much flack.
 
striker42 said:
Manchin's election is less than 5 weeks from now. Collins isn't up for 2 years.

If Manchin votes against in a 49-51 affair, the furor will not die down at all by the election. Two years from now in the midst of a presidential election, Collins will not see much flack.
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Believe what you will. You have to factor in what might happen with the whole Mueller thing, whether impeachment charges get brought, whether Trump is subpoenaed, whether a sitting Justice Kavanaugh will help protect Trump.

I think people greatly underestimate the anger of women at the moment and how long it will extend. Greatly.
 
bravesnumberone said:
Believe what you will. You have to factor in what might happen with the whole Mueller thing, whether impeachment charges get brought, whether Trump is subpoenaed, whether a sitting Justice Kavanaugh will help protect Trump.

I think people greatly underestimate the anger of women at the moment and how long it will extend. Greatly.
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I never underestimate the shortness of the American attention span. Anger is a constant. The direction of the anger changes constantly.
 
50PoundHead said:
I don't think Feinstein is as guilty as those on the right want to portray her, but I wish a cleaner line of attack could have been formulated.
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I may have missed something in the news that proves me wrong, but I have always doubted that the leak came from Feinstein. She seems more dignified than that.
 
bravesnumberone said:
I think Collins is far more likely to see her re-election chances hurt by a Yes vote than Manchin is by a no vote. Anger by women will outlast anger from conservatives, especially if their boy gets through and they have control of the court.
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Collins isn't up until 2020 and I think she is more afraid of being challenged from the right if she votes no than from the Dems if she votes yes.
 
Jaw said:
I may have missed something in the news that proves me wrong, but I have always doubted that the leak came from Feinstein. She seems more dignified than that.
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I was just throwing Feinstein's name out as the target of the animosity. She's a pretty easy target (for both the left and right).
 
50PoundHead said:
Collins isn't up until 2020 and I think she is more afraid of being challenged from the right if she votes no than from the Dems if she votes yes.
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Unless I'm missing something, I don't see anyone on the right being elected in Maine at this point.

All the push I'm seeing from Maine right now is from the left. Might be because she's leaning yes and the right doesn't see the need.
 
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