Legal/scotus thread

bravesnumberone said:
Unless I'm missing something, I don't see anyone on the right being elected in Maine at this point.

All the push I'm seeing from Maine right now is from the left. Might be because she's leaning yes and the right doesn't see the need.
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Collins could definitely face a tough primary from the right
 
She could but it's then likely the party loses that seat. Just looking at the math of the state, she has to rely on a lot of moderates/independents to remain in the seat.
 
Jaw said:
I may have missed something in the news that proves me wrong, but I have always doubted that the leak came from Feinstein. She seems more dignified than that.
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FWIW, the journalist who received the leak has confirmed that it didn’t come from Feinstein or her staff. I’m not a particular fan of her body of work, but I agree that I don’t think she’d pull that move, for reasons of comity in the chamber and willingness to respect Ford’s request for confidentiality.
 
Murkowski is well-insulated. Hell, she won as a freaking write-in after getting primaried before.

Looks like Collins is a yes. Flake has not got the balls to vote no. Manchin is probably sweating his re-election enough to make a yes vote the strongest possibility. So that’s the ballgame, with or without Manchin.

All this and we’ll likely never learn who paid Kavanaugh back for the “baseball tickets,” whether he took an off-site meeting to receive emails stolen from D senators, or any of the other as-yet open questions that existed before the sexual assault allegations and the subsequent avalanche of dissembling about his past. Oh, well.
 
I liked Collins' point about the importance of the presumption of innocence. It's something I strongly believe in whether it's a trial or, as some say, a job interview.

I also liked her call for the return of civility to the SCOTUS confirmation process. It wasn't that long ago that the Senate acted truly as intended in the confirmation process, making sure the candidate was vetted and qualified and with candidates getting confirmed by huge margins. I would like to see it return to that.
 
striker42 said:
I liked Collins' point about the importance of the presumption of innocence. It's something I strongly believe in whether it's a trial or, as some say, a job interview.

I also liked her call for the return of civility to the SCOTUS confirmation process. It wasn't that long ago that the Senate acted truly as intended in the confirmation process, making sure the candidate was vetted and qualified and with candidates getting confirmed by huge margins. I would like to see it return to that.
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1. It was an incredibly disingenuous speech that could have been given by any highly partisan Republican.
2. It was stunning in its hypocrisy to not acknowledge the dark money that has flowed from the right.
3. Perhaps while she was on her high horse about civility, perhaps mention the way Merrick Garland was treated.
4. Not a single mention about the way he conducted himself last week.
5. It's laughable that she pointed to him as a guy who would be a caretaker of all these Democratic things. LOL if you think Republicans would have ever pushed him so hard if that was the case.

The list goes on. But congratulations to Justice Kavanaugh. We have clarity now and everyone will hear from the voters soon.
 
bravesnumberone said:
Unless I'm missing something, I don't see anyone on the right being elected in Maine at this point.

All the push I'm seeing from Maine right now is from the left. Might be because she's leaning yes and the right doesn't see the need.
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You have to get through a low-turnout primary before you get to the general election and this is the state that elected Paul LePage.
 
nsacpi said:
Not too surprised to see Murkowski vote no.

Flake, Collins and Manchin are harder to figure out.

Manchin is in pretty good shape for re-election. He probably wants to play it safe and please his constituents by voting yes. However, I do not think he will vote yes if it is the decisive vote.

Between Flake and Collins, I think Flake is more likely to vote no. Collins, in spite of her reputation for independence, usually sticks with the leadership. And she seems to believe whatever private assurances Kavanaugh gave her.

Flake seems more disturbed by Kavanaugh's performance last Friday. I think he is looking for a deal with Coons and the Dems to move expeditiously on the next guy (or gal) if Kavanaugh is defeated. His relationship with Coons might be the key here. I predict he votes no. This puts Manchin on the spot and I think he will vote no too.
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I think if Kavanaugh is defeated then Trump will move to rush the most conservative nominee possible, which would likely end up being Barrett. If for nothing else to stick it to the Democrats and the fact that she would be a far safer pick in terms of further allegations being made. I think Kavanaugh will make it through though. Manchin is going to play the safe route and vote to confirm him. He has a substantial lead in his race, but I think a no vote would be too unpredictable for him on what it would do to his constituency. Collins has already said she's voting to confirm, so in all likelihood he is going to make it through.
 
BeanieAntics said:
I think if Kavanaugh is defeated then Trump will move to rush the most conservative nominee possible, which would likely end up being Barrett. If for nothing else to stick it to the Democrats and the fact that she would be a far safer pick in terms of further allegations being made. I think Kavanaugh will make it through though. Manchin is going to play the safe route and vote to confirm him. He has a substantial lead in his race, but I think a no vote would be too unpredictable for him on what it would do to his constituency. Collins has already said she's voting to confirm, so in all likelihood he is going to make it through.
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Just 4 points in the latest poll. So he's not too comfortable.

That being said, Collins takes pressure off him. He can vote to confirm now and not anger his party bosses. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Schumer tells him he should vote to confirm. If the Dems want to retake the Senate they need Manchin to keep his seat.
 
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bravesnumberone said:
She could but it's then likely the party loses that seat. Just looking at the math of the state, she has to rely on a lot of moderates/independents to remain in the seat.
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GOP primary voters have proven quite willing to go down that path. Christine O'Donnell. Richard Mourdock. Roy Moore. Sharon Angle. And probably a couple more I can't remember.
 
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Overall, I think the Senator that is going to be hurt by this the most is Heitkamp. She has been behind in her race for a while now, but I still thought she had a good chance of retaining that seat. However after this whole Kavanaugh thing she has gone from a 2-3 point dog to a 9-10 point dog in my estimation. I'm pretty neutral on who ends up winning the Senate, but from an objective point of view it does appear that this whole ordeal has hurt the Dem's chances of controlling the Senate in November. A week ago, 538 had them with a 1 in 3 shot of flipping the Senate. Now its more like a 2 in 9 shot and the spread continues to get bigger every day. It has also hurt them a little bit in the race for the House, but I don't think it has hurt them enough for them to lose it. They are still going to flip the House in all likelihood.

It should be noted that all of this could change on a dime. 538 also suggested that whoever ends up on the "losing" end of this deal could end up using their loss to galvanize their base for the Midterms. So if Kavanaugh is confirmed we might see a legitimate bump in some of the elections, especially in the more traditionally blue areas. Don't think that is going to help Heitkamp though.
 
50PoundHead said:
I was just throwing Feinstein's name out as the target of the animosity. She's a pretty easy target (for both the left and right).
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I understand. I was disputing the talking point I've seen from some on the right that this was a Feinstein hit job. I think it was a leak for political purposes, I just can't believe that she had anything to do with it. I disagree with her a lot, and respect her more than that.
 
nsacpi said:
GOP primary voters have proven quite willing to go down that path. Christine O'Donnell. Richard Mourdock. Roy Moore. Sharon Angle. And probably a couple more I can't remember.
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Don't forget Todd "women don't get pregnant from legitimate rape" Akin.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Overall, I think the Senator that is going to be hurt by this the most is Heitkamp. She has been behind in her race for a while now, but I still thought she had a good chance of retaining that seat. However after this whole Kavanaugh thing she has gone from a 2-3 point dog to a 9-10 point dog in my estimation. I'm pretty neutral on who ends up winning the Senate, but from an objective point of view it does appear that this whole ordeal has hurt the Dem's chances of controlling the Senate in November. A week ago, 538 had them with a 1 in 3 shot of flipping the Senate. Now its more like a 2 in 9 shot and the spread continues to get bigger every day. It has also hurt them a little bit in the race for the House, but I don't think it has hurt them enough for them to lose it. They are still going to flip the House in all likelihood.

It should be noted that all of this could change on a dime. 538 also suggested that whoever ends up on the "losing" end of this deal could end up using their loss to galvanize their base for the Midterms. So if Kavanaugh is confirmed we might see a legitimate bump in some of the elections, especially in the more traditionally blue areas. Don't think that is going to help Heitkamp though.
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Heitkamp was a bit of a fluke in 2012 winning by less than 3,000 votes out of over 300,000 cast in a very red state, so I think she just voted her conscience here seeing she's likely down by double digits. There may be some strategy to it if the whole Kavanaugh affair were to enflame her base, but there's not much of a Democratic base in North Dakota.
 
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