Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

yes, Waters for Castellanos would be terrible and there's zero chance AA would entertain it.
Waters+Riley+ for Suarez is a dream right now.
i have no desire to trade The Cobbler, and i hope AA feels the same. But Waters+Riley+ some pitching and i'm all the way in.
who knows what Cincy is asking for tho
 
Carp said:
I will say I apologize for the original snarky comment. But my point remains the same. Waters for Castellanos is just a terrible trade for us.
Click to expand...

No apology necessary but thanks anyway. Lets move on. I suggest you check the MLBTR chat last nite. Reds, according to them and Morosi this AM are looking to dump money more than anything else. Seems they will offer up Castillo if someone takes one of their big contracts. Same applies to Gray and Suarez. FWIW, Im not going to go back and look who the Ozuna worshipers are here but look close at the stats for Castellanos and Ozuna. Really not much difference and NIck would come a whole lot cheaper. Both BTW seem good enough that they have lasted thru 8 years without a non tender. Cant say the same for Duvall that some seem to idolize.
 
Castellanos has been a more consistent hitter over the last 4-5 years. That is true. But Ozuna's highs have been significantly better than Castellanos'. Marcel was on pace for a 6 WAR season last year. And posted a 5+ WAR season in 2017. His statcast numbers also suggest he is better hitter than Castellanos.

That being said, I don't think most people are advocating going to 4-5 years for Ozuna at 20+ million per year.
 
Carp said:
Castellanos has been a more consistent hitter over the last 4-5 years. That is true. But Ozuna's highs have been significantly better than Castellanos'. Marcel was on pace for a 6 WAR season last year. And posted a 5+ WAR season in 2017. His statcast numbers also suggest he is better hitter than Castellanos.

That being said, I don't think most people are advocating going to 4-5 years for Ozuna at 20+ million per year.
Click to expand...

I’d take Castellanos over Marcell if it brought Gray or Castillo along with him.

You’d be sacrificing offense for one of the best rotations in the game.

Soroka
Morton
Fried
Gray/Castillo
Smyley
 
Russ2dollas said:
Trading Anderson? Sending him to the minors? 6 man rotation?
Click to expand...

I would not trade him, but sending him to the minors or a 6 man rotation would be a great idea. If we assume we are going to have 5 SP all year, we are insane. He is as good of a #6 as we could expect. Good quality and depth is a pretty good thing.
 
Super said:
yes, Waters for Castellanos would be terrible and there's zero chance AA would entertain it.
Waters+Riley+ for Suarez is a dream right now.
i have no desire to trade The Cobbler, and i hope AA feels the same. But Waters+Riley+ some pitching and i'm all the way in.
who knows what Cincy is asking for tho
Click to expand...

I assume they'd ask for Waters + Shewmake + Catcher. That would be too rich for me.

I think the Braves are high on Waters and love the idea of 3 potential CF on defense. Cheap, stellar defense with offensive upside.

3B and SS have potential upgrades available with Bryant, Lindor. Nationals and Dodgers would probably be strong favorites for each, respectively, but those type of options are out there. Arenado has an opt out after this year. He's unlikely to get the same money, but it's possible he opts out and looks to put himself in a better situation to win. Trevor Story is a FA.

AA offers Shewmake, Wright, Muller and Jessie Franklin. Reds can see a cheap, potential impact SS, pitching that is ready to let them send pitchers for more prospects and a relatively high draft pick. I don't think it gets it done. But AA seems to only want to buy if it is on sale.

Any talk about Suarez or Ramirez or Arenando may be helpful for lowering Bryant's cost.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
I will be the first to admit that the sabremetrics are out of my league but I have been around long enough to know that everyday someone will come along with another savant prediction. Now if you would get your nose out of Brian Kenny's ass instead of snidely commenting on everything and everyone it would be a better day. Have a very Merry Christmas.
Click to expand...

No idea who Brian Kenny is, but from context I suspect you consider him a big baseball brain. I haven’t seen a shred of useful work with his name on it though.

My opinions and views on baseball analytics have been shaped by analysts who now work in MLB front offices. I think I’ll stick to those concepts, while you continue to think players like Castellanos have valuable contracts.

Merry Christmas.
 
Enscheff said:
No idea who Brian Kenny is, but from context I suspect you consider him a big baseball brain. I haven’t seen a shred of useful work with his name on it though.

My opinions and views on baseball analytics have been shaped by analysts who now work in MLB front offices. I think I’ll stick to those concepts, while you continue to think players like Castellanos have valuable contracts.

Merry Christmas.
Click to expand...

MLB Network's resident sabermetric guy - host of MLB Now. He's the guy they bring in when they want to make the player/analysts and old school guys uncomfortable.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
The lack of Braves rumors and other teams make this a very boring offseason
Click to expand...

I can't remember this slow of an off season. Not just the lack of signings but we aren't even hearing many legitimate rumors. Not even sure what to make of this. Is this a signal that most of the teams in the league really don't have the budget to make signings? Time will tell, but the Smyly and Morton signings might end up looking like overpays when all is said and done.
 
Tommy Kahnle to the Dodgers, 2 year deal/4.2 mil total. Probably out all of 2021, but could be a very good signing if he's healthy. One of the best RP's in baseball when healthy.

And yeah, AA might have screwed up on Smyly/Morton overpaying them. Like other than them, McCann and Trevor May, there's been ZERO big name signings to this point and it's almost January. Either every team is broke or they're waiting for the DH or something to be announced. Wild times.
 
Some of us were calling the Smyly and Morton deals overpays when they happened. Morton might have been a bit of “pay me $15M or I retire”, but giving Smyly that much cash that early was definitely a questionable move.

While it’s possible many teams are broke, it’s also possible nobody wants to make a move until the DH is settled. Hard to say either way right now, and it could be a bit of both.
 
NYCBrave said:
I can't remember this slow of an off season. Not just the lack of signings but we aren't even hearing many legitimate rumors. Not even sure what to make of this. Is this a signal that most of the teams in the league really don't have the budget to make signings? Time will tell, but the Smyly and Morton signings might end up looking like overpays when all is said and done.
Click to expand...

Players have to be willing to sign - none of this means teams aren't active and making offers. Other than the players affected by the DH situation (really mainly just Cruz and Ozuna), the simplest and most likely explanation is that the players' distrust of ownership has snowballed to the point that this group of free-agents is simply ignoring reality to a point and they think that at some point the teams are going to cave and suddenly start offering the same old contracts they used to offer and this entire group of free-agents isn't going to have to take much less than what players are accustomed to getting.

Owners have gotten smarter - they've hired smarter people to help them run their organizations, making them smarter by default. These people have shown them where to trim the fat - not paying older players based on past production, not offering older players contracts that will result in chunks of payroll tied up in non-productive players who have recognizable names when the teams become competitive, etc.. As a whole, this is a marginal free-agent class - once you get past the first handful of guys there aren't any real "difference-makers", yet these guys look like they're waiting around for big-time offers. They're ignoring two really important facts here - 1.) that the only way they're going to get market value as "just players" (not stars) is if they accept one year or very short-term deals, and 2.) the owners have already lost a boatload of money and it's still quite unclear how soon there will be full stadiums and revenue streams will be "back to normal".

There are plenty of arguments one can make about whether owners' lives have been drastically altered because of the losses caused by the virus, but the players also have to understand that handing out long-term guaranteed deals to players like James Paxton who have injury histories that equal their performance when healthy is just bad business. If market value is $9 million/win, accept a 1 year deal at those rates, stay healthy and perform at that level, and hope that things get better over the next year. Players simply aren't doing that - they're waiting for ownership to blink and overpay, and it looks like ownership (for the largest part) has learned a lesson and isn't going to anymore.
 
Last edited:
Enscheff said:
Some of us were calling the Smyly and Morton deals overpays when they happened. Morton might have been a bit of “pay me $15M or I retire”, but giving Smyly that much cash that early was definitely a questionable move.

While it’s possible many teams are broke, it’s also possible nobody wants to make a move until the DH is settled. Hard to say either way right now, and it could be a bit of both.
Click to expand...

I scratched my head at the decision when it happened and given the glacial pace of the market, I may resort to scratching it again. Everyone can have their own theory about it, but I believe Anthopoulos jumped the gun. One can only spend a dollar once and dollars going to Smyly may well impinge our ability to fill out the line-up.
 
It's kinda crazy only 3 players have signed for more than $10 million AAV and we have signed two of them. That was over a month ago.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top