Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

Super said:
we all agree AA needs to sign a bat or three. we all seem to agree one of them needs to be a big one.
there aren't *that* many suitors for Ozuna right now. his asking price is high. with the lack of suitors, and as other affordable deals come in (Pederson for $7M to be a starter), Ozuna's price will likely come down. maybe it hasn't yet. maybe it hasn't come down enough. maybe he's still demanding 4/$88. so do the whiners want AA to sign him for 4/$88, a deal no other team has so far been willing to match, and is the tippy-top of his value, just because they want to see a move made?

AA hasn't left the team high and dry yet. so far, each offseason, he's had a plan, and it's worked out. i assume he has a plan, and i'm glad he doesn't panic and sign someone at their first, highest ask.
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I wonder if he'd take something like, 4 year / $75m....$18,75m AAV, a little lower salary this season, and a little higher on the back end.
 
Southcack77 said:
While it is true that his expected stats did not show a lot of luck in his results last season, Ozuna's performance in a very strange year was in every way a statistical outlier to his career at large.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/marcell-ozuna-542303?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

So maybe a contract year and being a full time DH leveled Ozuna up as a hitter for the back half of his career. Or maybe he just saw the ball astonishingly well for one half season at the end of his athletic prime.
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Thanks for posting that. Baseball Savant is a very useful site. The X-factor here is how Anthopoulos views statistics from 2020 as a whole. Ozuna had a career year with the bat, but 2020 was just under 40% of a traditional regular season. Every year you see a number of players who are on fire for a month or two and then go cold for the rest of the season. Outside of 2020, he's been a reasonably good player with one monster season (.924 OPS for the Marlins in 2017). I think that's the difference for a guy like Springer, who has been much more consistent and as a result is a less-risky bet on a long term deal. Add Ozuna's defensive issues to the mix and it shouldn't be a surprise that GMs may be a bit leery on offering a big long-term deal.
 
50PoundHead said:
Thanks for posting that. Baseball Savant is a very useful site. The X-factor here is how Anthopoulos views statistics from 2020 as a whole. Ozuna had a career year with the bat, but 2020 was just under 40% of a traditional regular season. Every year you see a number of players who are on fire for a month or two and then go cold for the rest of the season. Outside of 2020, he's been a reasonably good player with one monster season (.924 OPS for the Marlins in 2017). I think that's the difference for a guy like Springer, who has been much more consistent and as a result is a less-risky bet on a long term deal. Add Ozuna's defensive issues to the mix and it shouldn't be a surprise that GMs may be a bit leery on offering a big long-term deal.
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I think a 2 year deal is the way to go here. Hopefully AA feels this way. If he wants 3 then offer it but reduce the AAV a decent amount and make Ozuna make a decision. 2/50 or 3/60. Something like that.
 
zbhargrove said:
Saying AA hasn't made any significant signings is one of the dumbest things I've ever heard.
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Quit being obtuse. Signing one year deals are the lest risky signing ever. They are great but how long can you keep building a winner like that. Our core is what makes us a winner. AA at least recognizes that. But we might have to take a risk with money or prospects to increase our odds. We have two of the best contracts in all of baseball. We can handle a bad contract if one doesn’t work out.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Quit being obtuse. Signing one year deals are the lest risky signing ever. They are great but how long can you keep building a winner like that. Our core is what makes us a winner. AA at least recognizes that. But we might have to take a risk with money or prospects to increase our odds. We have two of the best contracts in all of baseball. We can handle a bad contract if one doesn’t work out.
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Okay, you said significant... significant and risky are very different terms
 
zbhargrove said:
Okay, you said significant... significant and risky are very different terms
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It was clear what I was saying. We all love one year contracts. I hope we can sign Ozuna to another one year contract. My concern is we miss him and we are left with nothing. I am starting to view AA a little differently of late. Just like how most loved Coppy for the first two years. We might be seeing the first ding in AA armor.
 
Springer should of been the risk he took.
Once he signed, AA’s approach is exactly what we should be doing.
I mean besides Springer there wasn’t anyone on the market that would make us on par with the Dodgers.
We all know Ozuna won’t be as good as last year so may as well wait out someone on a 1 year deal and try again next offseason or pay the price and make a trade mid season if we are in it.
I don’t want the Braves to risk any long term deal on anyone that won’t be productive for 2-3 years.
That’s why I wanted Springer.
Imo he will be worth his deal barring injury.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
It was clear what I was saying. We all love one year contracts. I hope we can sign Ozuna to another one year contract. My concern is we miss him and we are left with nothing. I am starting to view AA a little differently of late. Just like how most loved Coppy for the first two years. We might be seeing the first ding in AA armor.
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Oh well if you declare it as "clear" then I guess it had to be... and please... you've always questioned AA... you haven't "started" to view him differently
 
zbhargrove said:
Oh well if you declare it as "clear" then I guess it had to be... and please... you've always questioned AA... you haven't "started" to view him differently
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it would be incredibly dumb to complain that AA hasn't made any risky signings....because who would want that?...so taking the "significant" and "risky" separately was appropriate.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
I wonder if he'd take something like, 4 year / $75m....$18,75m AAV, a little lower salary this season, and a little higher on the back end.
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i still feel like even that's a lot. i think Ozuna takes that if someone offers it right now.
i get that people saw what he did last year and are enamored, but Ozuna is a risky player for reasons Southcack outlined even without a big contract. it's not like he's been a consistent great offensive producer. if he puts up a 110 wRC+ as a DH, that's not ideal..
 
zbhargrove said:
Oh well if you declare it as "clear" then I guess it had to be... and please... you've always questioned AA... you haven't "started" to view him differently
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Find one comment from me that has ever questioned AA before recently. Do not make a claim unless you can back it up. I won’t wait because you won’t find any. In fact I just said AA has done a good job of not making any big mistakes. That is to be commended. He recognized he was handed a winner. He hasn’t screwed it up.

But I am now questioning if he is too safe. Maybe not. Maybe that is right. We will just have to wait to see. Maybe the guys coming up are better than we thought. We might see Riley and Pache kill it this year and we can all say see AA knew this all along.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
But I am now questioning if he is too safe. Maybe not. Maybe that is right. We will just have to wait to see. Maybe the guys coming up are better than we thought. We might see Riley and Pache kill it this year and we can all say see AA knew this all along.
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or he could sign Ozuna for 2/36 when you wanted him to pull the trigger at 4/84.
 
tululush said:
Smyly was redundant. We didn't need to invest 11 million in him when we have pitchers in our system who can perform, and we also don't need to waste money on Luke Jackson if those types of deals prevent us from signing a much better player. The same could be said for Camargo. Meh.
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Really???

You must not have been watching last season when the rotation was Fried, Anderson, and hope it rains.

There are absolutely no guarantees about when Soroka will be ready, Morton is 37 and starting to show his age at times, and they're probably not likely going to let anyone pitch more than 150 innings during the regular season. Wright and Wilson are still HUGE question marks, Ynoa isn't a starter, and Davidson, Muller, and De La Rosa aren't legitimate options yet or they would have gotten a couple starts last season.

A Soroka delay, DL trip for Morton, and regression from Anderson - all of which can be fairly expected - and this rotation is right back to where it was when everyone was pulling their hair out if Smyly's not here.
 
Super said:
or he could sign Ozuna for 2/36 when you wanted him to pull the trigger at 4/84.
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Huh. When did I want him at 4/84. I have said and continue to say that I am worried if we miss on Ozuna we are in real trouble. We have waited the market out to get a bargain. If it works, great for us. If it fails then it will expose the risk that AA is playing.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Find one comment from me that has ever questioned AA before recently. Do not make a claim unless you can back it up. I won’t wait because you won’t find any. In fact I just said AA has done a good job of not making any big mistakes. That is to be commended. He recognized he was handed a winner. He hasn’t screwed it up.

But I am now questioning if he is too safe. Maybe not. Maybe that is right. We will just have to wait to see. Maybe the guys coming up are better than we thought. We might see Riley and Pache kill it this year and we can all say see AA knew this all along.
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I may be remembering wrong, I just seem to recall you complaining every off season about AA not doing anything. Maybe it was a different poster that I am remembering... if so, I apologize for that comment.
 
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