Southcack77
Well-known member
Buying low on Montgomery is not the worst idea though I think having the DBacks pay most of his salary is preferable.
Looking towards 2025
- Thread starter Slippyjms
- Start date
Buying low on Montgomery is not the worst idea though I think having the DBacks pay most of his salary is preferable.
So Perdomo isn't a significant enough of an upgrade over Arcia to take on one year of Montgomery, but somehow he's this great asset to Arizona....
AZ has Jordan Lawler ready to take over at SS, who is a top 10 overall prospect. Perdomo is basically a younger version of Jose Iglesias with better on base skills. Sure that's valuable while he's cheap, but AZ has holes to fill and not a lot of money to do it. And they seem pretty desperate to move Montgomery.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
OPS+ last 3 years:
Pedromo - 84
Arcia - 91
Cumaltive WAR the last 3 years:
Perdomo - 4.7
Arcia - 3.9*
*Arcia with less games played.
Perdomo’s value comes from being young and cheap. So, him not being a significant upgrade over Arcia doesn’t mean he isn’t valuable. Did I explain that well enough for you?
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cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I would take that in a heartbeat. I dont know if the Cards even want Soler but I cant see a straight 1 for 1 swap. We would need to add prospects.
I haven't looked into underlying issues with him, but buying low on Monty is exactly the type of deal I would expect from AA.
Perdomo is pretty meh, but meh is better than what the Braves currently have. No idea how willing the DBacks are to trade him, but I suspect a cheap everyday SS is something a contender would prefer to hold onto.
As I understand it, the Cards are looking to rebuild, so I doubt they have any interest in Soler. Gray is another example of the type of move I expect AA to make rather than handing out 9 figures to a FA.
I think you guys are sniffing around the right bushes trying to figure out how AA adds a SP.
Sonny Grays contract is $25M next year and $35M in 2026. We’ll likely get our money’s worth in 2025 and overpay in 2026. Strider is also jumping from $4M in 2025 to $20M in 2026.
So that would give us an $83M rotation in 2026. However the jump in Strider’s and Gray’s contracts from 2025 to 2026 would be offset by Ozuna/Fletcher/Laureano’s departures.
Gray would solidify the rotation for the next 2 year on paper, which AA would love to have.Then we can be patient and work on a pipeline that will be needed in 2027 when Sales/Lopez/Gray would all more than likely be gone if not before due to injuries.
So that would give us an $83M rotation in 2026. However the jump in Strider’s and Gray’s contracts from 2025 to 2026 would be offset by Ozuna/Fletcher/Laureano’s departures.
Gray would solidify the rotation for the next 2 year on paper, which AA would love to have.Then we can be patient and work on a pipeline that will be needed in 2027 when Sales/Lopez/Gray would all more than likely be gone if not before due to injuries.
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Yes, Perdomo sucked as a 22 year old rookie. But he's been significantly better than Arcia each since then. And bWAR shows a different story, with Perdomo more than doubling Arcia's WAR over the last 2 seasons.
It is extremely poor logic to paint Perdomo as not a significant upgrade to Arcia while also stating AZ won't have interest in trading him.
I assume Blake Snell opts out right? Wonder what he is looking at now that he is a year older and coming off fairly worse season?
The pitching market isn't exactly barren, with top options like Fried, Burnes, and Flaherty headlining the market,. And with several other quality options that will be available on short term deals. Would Snell take 3/90? Wil he get more than that? I can't imagine teams are willing to go anywhere near the 6/150 he reportedly turned down from the Yankees a year ago.
The pitching market isn't exactly barren, with top options like Fried, Burnes, and Flaherty headlining the market,. And with several other quality options that will be available on short term deals. Would Snell take 3/90? Wil he get more than that? I can't imagine teams are willing to go anywhere near the 6/150 he reportedly turned down from the Yankees a year ago.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Snell had a worse season but he was again elite in the second half. Thats where the playoffs are. Last thing we need is more April superstars. We need players that can perform in October and hopefully November.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
I wonder if they would take back Soler, only to off set some of the remaining cost of Gray's salary. Especially because I'm not so sure anyone would be willing to take Sonny Gray for 2 years $60 million. The Cardinals kind of shot themselves in the foot by frontloading that contract, now figuring that they'll need to offload it.
Another thing to consider about the Cardinals, they typically draw well, even when they are not great. They were 7th in attendance this year. I see them as the type of organization who would still want to field a semblance of a competitive team even while rebuilding. I'm not sure we see a full teardown.
Hudson2
Well-known member
Gray is owed 25 & 35 million the next 2 years. I doubt we would have to add anything.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
…Because he’s young and cheap. That doesn’t mean he’s a significant upgrade FOR US when we would be taking on a lot of money.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I doubt we get Gray without sending them either Smith-Shawver or Waldrep. As NYC said, the Cardinals have never been a tear-it-down franchise.
Hudson2
Well-known member
If we had to pay 60 million for 2 years of a guy who is fixing to be 35 while giving them our top prospect then i would walk away fast.
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cajunrevenge
Well-known member
AJSS to the Cardinals would just be Wainwright/JD Drew all over again. No thx.
So by that logic, Kelenic isn't someone we would be willing to part with in a trade because he is young and cheap?
It's a dumb fallacy. Perdomo being a 2-3 WAR SS is the main reason why AZ might have an issue trading him, and the main reason why we should be interested. Because a 2-3 WAR SS is a significant upgrade to Arcia, who was a 1.6 bWAR SS at his very best during his time in Atlanta. And as stated, AZ has a top 10 overall SS prospect who is ready to take over. I have no idea if attaching him to Montgomery as an attempt to get rid of Montgomery would be something they would entertain. But there is plenty of logic behind them using Perdomo in a trade to improve their team when they have a top SS ready to take over and plenty of holes to fill, without a ton of financial flexibility.
Also, Montgomery has only 1 season remaining on his contract. Not exactly like we are taking a huge gamble.
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Agreed. Gray isn't someone that will command much in return unless the Cards eat a lot of the contract. Especially in a free agent market with lots of quality pitching options. If you're a team that is gonna spend 30 million per year on a starting pitcher, why would you trade top prospects for Gray when you could simply sign one of the top guys in free agency? Yes, the back half of those deal likely won't be good, but Fried and Burnes are far likelier to be impact starting pitchers over the next 2 years than Gray is.
Certainly we would have to give up something for Gray, but it wouldn't be anyone worth concerning yourself over.