Mallex Smith promoted to AAA

[Russ2dollas]

Yes, it's not just homers. Some of the parks are like Coors where the OF is large and he can get more doubles/triples. He hit 5 homers, 31 doubles, and 4 triples last year. THis year he has 5 doubles, 2 triples, 2 homers.

yea but turn them all into regular hits and it's not the end of the world if he can play D. Smith is a guy what has to get on base. The idea is that if he gets on base than he's a threat to turn anything into a double.

For him it's about OBP and steals and he needs to be a positive defender. XBH would be great but I agree you aren't projecting that the MLB.

I can see the argument that the better fielders in MLB will eat up some hits/bunts he gets now. But considering some the fielders at 3B and 1B in MLB in order to get some bats in the line up....maybe not as much as we think.

 

[zitothebrave]

yea but turn them all into regular hits and it's not the end of the world if he can play D. Smith is a guy what has to get on base. The idea is that if he gets on base than he's a threat to turn anything into a double.

For him it's about OBP and steals and he needs to be a positive defender. XBH would be great but I agree you aren't projecting that the MLB.

I can see the argument that the better fielders in MLB will eat up some hits/bunts he gets now. But considering some the fielders at 3B and 1B in MLB in order to get some bats in the line up....maybe not as much as we think.

I dunno. I was told by someone in a thread discussing Peraza that stolen bases don't matter because the Braves don't run. So we should just not even both valuing them.

 

[DirkPiggler]

Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 as a 21 year old in the same league that Mallex Smith just wrapped up hitting .340/.418/.413.

Other than those years from each, it's really difficult to compare the two because they played different levels/different leagues and Mallex was able to play in the lower minors in extreme hitters environments.

This is overblown IMO. 810 of his 1217 minor league plate appearances pre-trade came in the Midwest League, which is not a league that favors hitters. Smith put up OBPs of .367 (507 PA) and .393 (303 PA) while playing for Fort Wayne.

In addition, Mississippi seems to be more of a pitcher's park with the limited data I could find. Smith has hit well there.

 

[thewupk]

yea but turn them all into regular hits and it's not the end of the world if he can play D. Smith is a guy what has to get on base. The idea is that if he gets on base than he's a threat to turn anything into a double.

For him it's about OBP and steals and he needs to be a positive defender. XBH would be great but I agree you aren't projecting that the MLB.

I can see the argument that the better fielders in MLB will eat up some hits/bunts he gets now. But considering some the fielders at 3B and 1B in MLB in order to get some bats in the line up....maybe not as much as we think.

That's not really fair to say. With smaller outfields those gappers could become outs, etc. Not trying to diminish what Smith did before he came to Atlanta but prospect numbers in those parks really need to be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[yeezus]

That's not really fair to say. With smaller outfields those gappers could become outs, etc. Not trying to diminish what Smith did before he came to Atlanta but prospect numbers in those parks really need to be taken with a grain of salt.

but he's hit well in every single park thus far. it's not like those numbers are total outliers (outside the SLG%). overall, they are not.

 

[gilesfan]

This is overblown IMO. 810 of his 1217 minor league plate appearances pre-trade came in the Midwest League, which is not a league that favors hitters. Smith put up OBPs of .367 (507 PA) and .393 (303 PA) while playing for Fort Wayne.

In addition, Mississippi seems to be more of a pitcher's park with the limited data I could find. Smith has hit well there.

I wasn't look at his number overall, but more so in high A when he had a .475 Slugging%.

In terms of Mississippi, I was just comparing Schafer to Smith at the same level.

 

[thewupk]

but he's hit well in every single park thus far. it's not like those numbers are total outliers (outside the SLG%). overall, they are not.

Sure. I think his slg is an outlier in those other parks. Because that league is just crazy for offensive. The thing with Smith is that he's rocked a 400 BABIP the last 2 years. And I don't think some posters are properly taking that into consideration.

 

[thethe]

Why are we comparing him to Shafer? The guy did HGH. Never came close to producing any power afterwards.

 

[thethe]

Sure. I think his slg is an outlier in those other parks. Because that league is just crazy for offensive. The thing with Smith is that he's rocked a 400 BABIP the last 2 years. And I don't think some posters are properly taking that into consideration.

And a speed guy who hits the ball on the ground and is a good bunter will typically have a high BABIP. Would you be shocked if he had BABIP's of 330-350? If his walk rate stays the same then you are looking at a valueable player.

 

[thewupk]

And a speed guy who hits the ball on the ground and is a good bunter will typically have a high BABIP. Would you be shocked if he had BABIP's of 330-350? If his walk rate stays the same then you are looking at a valueable player.

No I wouldn't be shocked if he had a BABIP in the 330-350 range. And yes if he did that and his walk rate stayed the sme and his K rate stayed the same he would be a valuable player. Still a lot of ifs. But that's certainly no gurantee.

Look at Billy Hamilton. 20% LD rate. 40% GB rate. Get's infield hits at a 11% rate. Career 294 BABIP in the majors. Had several high 300 BABIP's and a 400 stop in the minors. His walk rate also dropped a lot after adjusting to the majors. The thing is we just won't know how he will play at the major league level. And when your offense is mainly fueled by a BABIP that high there is going to be a huge margin for where he can end up.

Again that's not to say we shouldn't be excited abotu what he is doing. But there should be a lot of caution about his numbers. And peniciling him in at CF and at the leadoff spot next just is a little premature.

 

[gilesfan]

And a speed guy who hits the ball on the ground and is a good bunter will typically have a high BABIP. Would you be shocked if he had BABIP's of 330-350? If his walk rate stays the same then you are looking at a valueable player.

The risk is that if he's not a stud defender, he needs to max out his hit tool potential to be a good player.

Give him 600 PAs with a 10% walk rate and 20% k rate with a .340 BABIP, and isoSLG of .07.

Not that is really a rough estimate, but what is unlikely about those assumptions?

That assumptions give him a roughly .265/.340/.340 slash line. Without elite defense, it's not all that promising. Now, if he can have a .360 BABIP with a 15% k rate, you are talking more along the lines of .300/.370/.370, which would be solid.

 

[gilesfan]

No I wouldn't be shocked if he had a BABIP in the 330-350 range. And yes if he did that and his walk rate stayed the sme and his K rate stayed the same he would be a valuable player. Still a lot of ifs. But that's certainly no gurantee.

Look at Billy Hamilton. 20% LD rate. 40% GB rate. Get's infield hits at a 11% rate. Career 294 BABIP in the majors. Had several high 300 BABIP's and a 400 stop in the minors. His walk rate also dropped a lot after adjusting to the majors. The thing is we just won't know how he will play at the major league level. And when your offense is mainly fueled by a BABIP that high there is going to be a huge margin for where he can end up.

Again that's not to say we shouldn't be excited abotu what he is doing. But there should be a lot of caution about his numbers. And peniciling him in at CF and at the leadoff spot next just is a little premature.

Interesting comp. Hamilton has a .294 BABIP for his career. And plays great defense.

 

[thethe]

Interesting comp. Hamilton has a .294 BABIP for his career. And plays great defense.

We can find comps that go both ways. Some have brought up Loften and Gardner. I would agree that Hamilton looks like a solid comp as well.

We really won't know until he gets to the big leagues.

 

[gilesfan]

Lofton had a career BABIP of .326. But, he also had power. Gardner is at .323. And also has power.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I dunno. I was told by someone in a thread discussing Peraza that stolen bases don't matter because the Braves don't run. So we should just not even both valuing them.

While I did point out (correctly) that the Braves don't run, I did not say SB don't matter. I think the best way to quickly value them is add the net SB into total bases for calculating SLG. So if a guy has 25 doubles, 30 bags and 5 caught stealings, I just look at it like 50 doubles. There's value, not huge value, tempered by failures, and from the intangible side, I figure the value of terror on the base paths roughly offsets the fact that a real double might come with RISP.

Make sense?

 

[thethe]

Lofton had a career BABIP of .326. But, he also had power. Gardner is at .323. And also has power.

Not sure about Loften but Garnder did not have that much power in the minors and was older. Power is the last tool to develop.

 

[gilesfan]

Not sure about Loften but Garnder did not have that much power in the minors and was older. Power is the last tool to develop.

Gardner also plays in the park with the RF being most conducive to homers.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

We can find comps that go both ways. Some have brought up Loften and Gardner. I would agree that Hamilton looks like a solid comp as well.

We really won't know until he gets to the big leagues.

It looks like he is really good at baseball.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Interesting comp. Hamilton has a .294 BABIP for his career. And plays great defense.

I always wonder with speed OFs how they can be bad defenders. There's some instinct, sure, but a big percentage of it - positioning, taking the right routes - those are learned skills. Everything I've heard says Mallex works hard.

Has anybody actually seen the player at Mississippi who can give me their thoughts on his defense? Is he adequate, or do you have to move him to left and hold your breath, or what?

 

[gilesfan]

Route running is not a learned trait, imo. It is instinctual. Someone like Andruw can see the ball off the bat and take the most direct line to the ball. Faster guys couldn't get to balls he could and they couldn't be taught. It's not like its fundamentals of catching the ball.