Megathread: Braves lose Maitan, Bae and 10+ plus International Sanctions.

[Enscheff]

And this is why I'm for clearing house, more so than the rules violations:

MadduxGlavineSmoltz
9:26 Dave is pretty down on the braves rebuild at this point. Where do you see the franchise at, especially considering the scandal? What would you do this offseason in Atlanta?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26 This is going to be an offseason of licking their wounds
9:27 They're going to be penalized pretty heavily
Dave and I are of a similar opinion -- neither one of us is all that fond of a rebuild built around high-risk young pitchers. At least Acuna and Albies are present
9:28 I think the Braves are still a few years away. Might be behind the Phillies

I think the Braves are now 1 for 11 with these pitching prospects if you count Gohara as a success.

 

[Preacher]

I'm at the point right now where I'm done worrying about the penalties -- I expect to get hammered, but when the smoke clears - we still have Acuna/Albies/Soroka/Allard/Touki/Riley/Gohara/Newk/Pache/Wright and a few others.

Even if they drop an atomic bomb on us, take out #8 pick, void our Maitan-era signings and ban us from the international market for years; there's still a lot of pieces in the system. A competent FO/GM should be able to win here.

 

[Chico]

And this is why I'm for clearing house, more so than the rules violations:

MadduxGlavineSmoltz
9:26 Dave is pretty down on the braves rebuild at this point. Where do you see the franchise at, especially considering the scandal? What would you do this offseason in Atlanta?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26 This is going to be an offseason of licking their wounds
9:27 They're going to be penalized pretty heavily
Dave and I are of a similar opinion -- neither one of us is all that fond of a rebuild built around high-risk young pitchers. At least Acuna and Albies are present
9:28 I think the Braves are still a few years away. Might be behind the Phillies

I think the Braves are now 1 for 11 with these pitching prospects if you count Gohara as a success.

Aren't you the one with the mancrush on Longehangen?

12:12
MadduxGlavineSmoltz: do you feel the braves went about rebuilding the right way? With how “set up” the Astros, Yankees, Cubs, etc.. are heading into 2018 and beyond with the way they loaded up on position players, Im very concerned the Braves went the wrong direction while loading up on pitching prospects. Would like to hear your thoughts Eric
12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: They’ve done fine, cast a wide net with arms and it isn’t like they don’t have bats. Acuna is almost there, Swanson and Albies already are. They have depth in the lower levels that will yield more in the next few years.

 

[Enscheff]

I'm at the point right now where I'm done worrying about the penalties -- I expect to get hammered, but when the smoke clears - we still have Acuna/Albies/Soroka/Allard/Touki/Riley/Gohara/Newk/Pache/Wright and a few others.

Even if they drop an atomic bomb on us, take out #8 pick, void our Maitan-era signings and ban us from the international market for years; there's still a lot of pieces in the system. A competent FO/GM should be able to win here.

I don't think they will lose anyone from the Maitan class. They will probably lose guys they signed in the most recent class when they surely did shady things to get those guys despite the $300k limit. They will probably also be banned from any international signings for 1-2 years.

Losing the #8 pick is likely the worst case scenario, so hopefully that doesn't happen.

 

[Enscheff]

Aren't you the one with the mancrush on Longehangen?

12:12
MadduxGlavineSmoltz: do you feel the braves went about rebuilding the right way? With how “set up” the Astros, Yankees, Cubs, etc.. are heading into 2018 and beyond with the way they loaded up on position players, Im very concerned the Braves went the wrong direction while loading up on pitching prospects. Would like to hear your thoughts Eric
12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: They’ve done fine, cast a wide net with arms and it isn’t like they don’t have bats. Acuna is almost there, Swanson and Albies already are. They have depth in the lower levels that will yield more in the next few years.

I agree with people I agree with.

The Braves are 1 for 11 with recently promoted SP prospects. Is that a good outcome in your opinion?

 

[striker42]

I agree with people I agree with.

The Braves are 1 for 11 with recently promoted SP prospects. Is that a good outcome in your opinion?

You're awfully quick to draw conclusions. Look at Jake Arrieta. He made his major league debut at 24 with the Orioles and posted the following line:

100.1 IP, 4.66 K/9, 4.31 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9, 4.66 ERA, and 4.76 FIP.

For comparison, here's Newcomb's line making his major league debut at age 24:

100 IP, 9.72 K/9, 5.13 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9, 4.32 ERA, 4.19 FIP.

The Orioles gave Arrieta a couple of years and dealt him to the Cubs. Arrieta won the Cy Young a couple years later.

I'm not saying Newcomb will win the Cy Young in a few years. I'm just saying you gotta give kids like him some time.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'm sorry but Dave Cameron is going overboard. I've said that sadly, this season might have been like last year's Phillies false alarm for the Braves but unless a series of bad things happen, 2019 should be the year.

Should the braves have hoarded pitching prospects? Honestly likely no but still.

 

[Southcack77]

I'm at the point right now where I'm done worrying about the penalties -- I expect to get hammered, but when the smoke clears - we still have Acuna/Albies/Soroka/Allard/Touki/Riley/Gohara/Newk/Pache/Wright and a few others.

Even if they drop an atomic bomb on us, take out #8 pick, void our Maitan-era signings and ban us from the international market for years; there's still a lot of pieces in the system. A competent FO/GM should be able to win here.

Realistically, I'm not in a position to really extrapolate what the penalties might be, but I'll guess anyway. I'd say the top end is likely to be forfeiting the first round draft pick next year and maybe being banned from international signings for one or two years. I'd guess they might also lose some guys from the most recent class, but I doubt that they will lose anyone who has played stateside.

If that guess is correct, you may be looking at a significant disruption in the minor league system production a few years down the road, or you might never be able to tell the difference. Hard to say, but go ahead and guess that things might thin out prospect wise at some point. Which isn't good for a mid-market payroll.

I don't see why it will affect the Braves arrival window at all though.

 

[Southcack77]

I agree with people I agree with.

The Braves are 1 for 11 with recently promoted SP prospects. Is that a good outcome in your opinion?

No, but it isn't unexpected given who the prospects were. Folty is a miss then if Gohara is a hit?

 

[Super]

You're awfully quick to draw conclusions. Look at Jake Arrieta. He made his major league debut at 24 with the Orioles and posted the following line:

100.1 IP, 4.66 K/9, 4.31 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9, 4.66 ERA, and 4.76 FIP.

For comparison, here's Newcomb's line making his major league debut at age 24:

100 IP, 9.72 K/9, 5.13 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9, 4.32 ERA, 4.19 FIP.

The Orioles gave Arrieta a couple of years and dealt him to the Cubs. Arrieta won the Cy Young a couple years later.

I'm not saying Newcomb will win the Cy Young in a few years. I'm just saying you gotta give kids like him some time.

Young pitchers never improve.

 

[Carp]

Honestly, the only "busts" so far, seem to be Wisler and Blair. Sims was already in the system. Newcomb, Folty, Fried, and Gohara all have flashed promise. Sims was already in the system so I don't really count him, but even he has showed some potential of becoming a solid pen option.

 

[Enscheff]

You're awfully quick to draw conclusions. Look at Jake Arrieta. He made his major league debut at 24 with the Orioles and posted the following line:

100.1 IP, 4.66 K/9, 4.31 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9, 4.66 ERA, and 4.76 FIP.

For comparison, here's Newcomb's line making his major league debut at age 24:

100 IP, 9.72 K/9, 5.13 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9, 4.32 ERA, 4.19 FIP.

The Orioles gave Arrieta a couple of years and dealt him to the Cubs. Arrieta won the Cy Young a couple years later.

I'm not saying Newcomb will win the Cy Young in a few years. I'm just saying you gotta give kids like him some time.

LOL ok. Shall I go pick out a guy who was ****ty at age 24 and then stayed ****ty? Then you find another who was good?

I bet you $100 you run out of examples before I do.

 

[Enscheff]

No, but it isn't unexpected given who the prospects were. Folty is a miss then if Gohara is a hit?

As much as it hurts to admit, I call Folty a bust.

 

[striker42]

LOL ok. Shall I go pick out a guy who was ****ty at age 24 and then stayed ****ty? Then you find another who was good?

I bet you $100 you run out of examples before I do.

There are absolutely more players that started out bad and remained bad than players that started out bad and got good. But then again, there are far, far, far more bad players than good players.

My point isn't that some guys started off bad and got good so guys like Newcomb will too. My point is that it's imprudent to make a call on whether a pitcher is a success or failure after 100 IP. If you do that then you're going to end up selling off players that later breakout.

 

[Enscheff]

There are absolutely more players that started out bad and remained bad than players that started out bad and got good. But then again, there are far, far, far more bad players than good players.

My point isn't that some guys started off bad and got good so guys like Newcomb will too. My point is that it's imprudent to make a call on whether a pitcher is a success or failure after 100 IP. If you do that then you're going to end up selling off players that later breakout.

It's all about the BBs at age 24. It is so extremely rare for those guys to succeed I think it's safe to assume he won't make it as a SP. Whoever linked profiles of Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan and Walter Johnson was a fool. Those guys had generational stuff. Newk has 2 plus pitches, but nowhere near the caliber of stuff required to overcome 5+ BB/9 at age 24.

And when I say "bust" I don't mean he won't contribute. I mean he won't much better than an average 2 win #4 SP or BP contributor.

The Braves don't need to find #4 SPs...they need to find guys who produce 3+ wins per year. If they can't produce those types of pitchers, why in the world did they bother accumulating so many?

There have been 31 pitchers other than Newk since 2000 who have been allowed to throw 100+ innings with a 5+ BB/9. Here they are along with their career fWAR:

Al Leiter 36.5 (4.4)
Barry Zito 30.5 (3.7)
Brandon Webb 29.7 (3.0)
Ryan Dempster 27.8 (4.0)
Ubaldo Jimenez 27.6 (4.1)
Francisco Liriano 24.3 (4.0)
Miguel Batista 15.3
Russ Ortiz 14.8
Edinson Volquez 13.1
Wade Miley 12.3
Derek Holland 11.2
Byung-Hyun Kim 11
Jamey Wright 10.6
Oliver Perez 10.2
Jason Marquis 8.9
Ricky Romero 8.4
Daisuke Matsuzaka 8.1
Daniel Cabrera 7.9
Roberto Hernandez 7.9
Noah Lowry 7.6
Tom Gorzelanny 7.3
Ian Snell 7
Jonathan Sanchez 6.7
Victor Zambrano 2.8
Shawn Chacon 2.7
Kazuhisa Ishii 2.6
Lucas Harrell 2.5
Rafael Montero 1.2
Justin Miller 0.9
Jesse Foppert 0.1
Seth McClung -0.5

I have also included the career BB/9 for the 6 pitchers in that group I consider successes.

Only 19% of those pitchers went on to have successful MLB careers as SPs.

All but 4 (12.9%) of those guys went on to be successful SPs with a career BB/9 of 4+.

How likely do folks think it is that Newk will get his career BB/9 to around 4 just to have a ~10% chance of making it?

I'm going to go ahead and call him the next Oliver Perez. Newk should not be taking up starts when guys like Allard, Wright and Soroka are ready.

 

[Enscheff]

Aren't you the one with the mancrush on Longehangen?

12:12

MadduxGlavineSmoltz: do you feel the braves went about rebuilding the right way? With how “set up” the Astros, Yankees, Cubs, etc.. are heading into 2018 and beyond with the way they loaded up on position players, Im very concerned the Braves went the wrong direction while loading up on pitching prospects. Would like to hear your thoughts Eric

12:13

Eric A Longenhagen: They’ve done fine, cast a wide net with arms and it isn’t like they don’t have bats. Acuna is almost there, Swanson and Albies already are. They have depth in the lower levels that will yield more in the next few years.

How many of the 3 bats he named were acquired during the rebuild?

 

[jpx7]

How many of the 3 bats he named were acquired during the rebuild?

It's likewise sort of an unsettling referendum on the current lever-pullers that the one-of-three who was acquired during the rebuild seems to be the worst of the three.

 

[striker42]

It's all about the BBs at age 24. It is so extremely rare for those guys to succeed I think it's safe to assume he won't make it as a SP. Whoever linked profiles of Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan and Walter Johnson was a fool. Those guys had generational stuff. Newk has 2 plus pitches, but nowhere near the caliber of stuff required to overcome 5+ BB/9 at age 24.

And when I say "bust" I don't mean he won't contribute. I mean he won't much better than an average 2 win #4 SP or BP contributor.

The Braves don't need to find #4 SPs...they need to find guys who produce 3+ wins per year. If they can't produce those types of pitchers, why in the world did they bother accumulating so many?

There have been 31 pitchers other than Newk since 2000 who have been allowed to throw 100+ innings with a 5+ BB/9. Here they are along with their career fWAR:

Al Leiter 36.5 (4.4)

Barry Zito 30.5 (3.7)

Brandon Webb 29.7 (3.0)

Ryan Dempster 27.8 (4.0)

Ubaldo Jimenez 27.6 (4.1)

Francisco Liriano 24.3 (4.0)

Miguel Batista 15.3

Russ Ortiz 14.8

Edinson Volquez 13.1

Wade Miley 12.3

Derek Holland 11.2

Byung-Hyun Kim 11

Jamey Wright 10.6

Oliver Perez 10.2

Jason Marquis 8.9

Ricky Romero 8.4

Daisuke Matsuzaka 8.1

Daniel Cabrera 7.9

Roberto Hernandez 7.9

Noah Lowry 7.6

Tom Gorzelanny 7.3

Ian Snell 7

Jonathan Sanchez 6.7

Victor Zambrano 2.8

Shawn Chacon 2.7

Kazuhisa Ishii 2.6

Lucas Harrell 2.5

Rafael Montero 1.2

Justin Miller 0.9

Jesse Foppert 0.1

Seth McClung -0.5

I have also included the career BB/9 for the 6 pitchers in that group I consider successes.

Only 19% of those pitchers went on to have successful MLB careers as SPs.

All but 4 (12.9%) of those guys went on to be successful SPs with a career BB/9 of 4+.

How likely do folks think it is that Newk will get his career BB/9 to around 4 just to have a ~10% chance of making it?

I'm going to go ahead and call him the next Oliver Perez. Newk should not be taking up starts when guys like Allard, Wright and Soroka are ready.

I wonder what the percentage of pitchers to go on to have successful careers overall is. Probably not high either.

Newk's K and HR numbers are excellent. Better than most of that list. That ups his chances.

Newk might bust. But the upside is tremendous. His upside is Lester. His downside is probably a lockdown late inning reliever.

 

[nsacpi]

It's likewise sort of an unsettling referendum on the current lever-pullers that the one-of-three who was acquired during the rebuild seems to be the worst of the three.

and was part of an stunning display of incompetence by another GM

 

[Enscheff]

I wonder what the percentage of pitchers to go on to have successful careers overall is. Probably not high either.

Newk's K and HR numbers are excellent. Better than most of that list. That ups his chances.

Newk might bust. But the upside is tremendous. His upside is Lester. His downside is probably a lockdown late inning reliever.

I made willing to bet any amount of money the list of pitchers who threw 100 innings in any 1 season has a much higher success rate than the list I provided. I'm also willing to bet the very best pitchers are significantly better than the best I listed.

Here is the list of pitchers narrowed down to those who K/9 is greater than 9 since 2000:

Jonathan Sanchez

Oliver Perez

Daniel Cabrera

Which of those names excites you?

I realize Braves fans want to think Newk is some special case, but he's not. There are plenty of guys just like him, and they rarely pan out.