MINORS FINAL THURSDAY 5/4 ... Allard reigns supreme

thewupk said:
So because Folty, who was bad and dropped out of the prospects list all together, has turned it around means that Newcomb will? Could he? Sure. Will he? Doubtful. He will probably be give a chance to start, fail, and become a lefty reliever for another team.

Nobody wants these guys to fail. But the odds are stacked against any prospect. The Braves protects are no different than any other group in history. The fact they have so many is good so we should be getting some quality arms at the big league level. But counting on them all to improve like some do around here is foolish.
Click to expand...

I'm not reading too much into a walk rate with only 26.1 ip at AAA so far. In his last start, he threw 7.0 ip 2 bb 11 k.
 
thethe said:
So if he has another 7 innings 2 walk game does that make it better? Is he a different pitcher? His walk rate wold take a nice drop.

Bottom line is he is going to at least make it to the bigs. I'd like to see if he can improve on his command at that point.

He may very well bust but it seems as if a lot of people have already determined it's inevitable. His scouting report includes three plus pitches with plus velocity and excellent spreads between the speed of his pitches. He has all the tools to be an effective pitcher.
Click to expand...

Newcomb has a ton of talent but has consistent control issues. One game will not change that. He is likely destined for the bullpen if he's going to be a MLB regular. I agree he will be given a chance to start but there is a reason he has dropped across almost all prospect rankings. His command is a huge red flag and it's a big deal. If he improves then great. But you aren't going to see that all too often.
 
msstate7 said:
I'm not reading too much into a walk rate with only 26.1 ip at AAA so far. In his last start, he threw 7.0 ip 2 bb 11 k.
Click to expand...

What about his 4.77 BB/9 in 317 minor league innings? His control problems so far this year is just a continuation of what he's done his entire pro career.
 
thewupk said:
Why not find the dozens more of elite stuff guys that never make it?
Click to expand...

How many guys with elite velocity and 3 plus pitches fail? I'm sure many do but I'd almost bet my life on the fact that the bust rate is significantly lower than the total population of pitchers.
 
You guys are lucky the board's search engine doesn't go back far enough for me to find how wrong you were in the past about pitching prospects.

I'll call you out on these predictions in a few years when you are making the same absurdly optimistic predictions about the next group of pitching prospects.
 
thethe said:
How many guys with elite velocity and 3 plus pitches fail? I'm sure many do but I'd almost bet my life on the fact that the bust rate is significantly lower than the total population of pitchers.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't call his change a plus pitch yet. How many guys with extreme control issues make it?
 
thewupk said:
I wouldn't call his change a plus pitch yet. How many guys with extreme control issues make it?
Click to expand...

Very valid question which I think holds more value than a lazy analysis which just lumps players by prospect ranking.
 
Enscheff said:
You guys are lucky the board's search engine doesn't go back far enough for me to find how wrong you were in the past about pitching prospects.

I'll call you out on these predictions in a few years when you are making the same absurdly optimistic predictions about the next group of pitching prospects.
Click to expand...

KEMvP bWAR after 16 games is 0.6. Does the search engine go back far enough to see what you predicted?
 
Enscheff said:
You guys are lucky the board's search engine doesn't go back far enough for me to find how wrong you were in the past about pitching prospects.

I'll call you out on these predictions in a few years when you are making the same absurdly optimistic predictions about the next group of pitching prospects.
Click to expand...

It was done with Julio/Delgado/Viz. Just as it was down with Davies/Larew/James before them. Pretty sure if you take all the Braves pitching prospects of the Baseball America top 100 era then the percentages would come out pretty on point with what you noted earlier.

Apparently because the Braves got lucky and had 3 HOF pitchers on the team for an extended period of time it makes them a pitching factor. Luckily other teams bought into that hype in the late 90's but it just doesn't make it true.
 
msstate7 said:
Folty in 186.1 ip at AAA walked 92 ~ 4.5 per 9 ip. Folty seems to coming on at the MLB level
Click to expand...

Folty didn't have a great walk rate. Which is why he wasn't considered a top 30 prospect. It should be noted that his AAA walk rates were still better than Newcomb's so far. And also he reached AAA at a significantly younger age. That should also count in any assessment.
 
thethe said:
Very valid question which I think holds more value than a lazy analysis which just lumps players by prospect ranking.
Click to expand...

It's not lazy. It's facts. Prospect guys once viewed Newcomb as you do based on his stuff. When he failed to consistently throw strikes he has been bumped down. Just as Folty was before him. Folty is one of the 20%. Newcomb could be but chances are better he's one of the 80% that doesn't do anything.
 
msstate7 said:
I'm not reading too much into a walk rate with only 26.1 ip at AAA so far. In his last start, he threw 7.0 ip 2 bb 11 k.
Click to expand...

Small sample. And smaller sample. But there is a context that should not be ignored, which is his walk rate has been high throughout his minor league career and has not been improving. I'd be more positive if he cut it the way Sims has cut his this year. 5 starts to be sure is not a conclusive sample. But I find Sims' performance this year significantly more encouraging.
 
nsacpi said:
Folty didn't have a great walk rate. Which is why he wasn't considered a top 30 prospect. It should be noted that his AAA walk rates were still better than Newcomb's so far. And also he reached AAA at a significantly younger age. That should also count in any assessment.
Click to expand...

And for Newcomb he has struck out more batter's and gives up less contact.
 
thethe said:
And for Newcomb he has struck out more batter's and gives up less contact.
Click to expand...

That's a relevant consideration. Against it I would weigh these considerations:

1) Folty had at lower walk rate
2) Folty reached AA and AAA at significantly younger ages than Newcomb.
3) The odds were against a player ranked where Folty was "making it."
 
nsacpi said:
Btw Newcomb turns 24 next month and his most recent BA ranking was 78.
Click to expand...

Agreed. His age should absolutely be held against him.

The other factors can mitigate that such as lack of experience from where he was raised.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top