MONDAY MINORS FINAL 8/7 ... Nothing to see here

[Tapate50]

That exact "play the hot hand" false logic is beloved by the current front office haha.

These is no way to predict when a player is about to get hot or get cold. He is as likely to turn into a pumpkin tomorrow as stay hot

When he turns into a pumpkin, he gets back into a back up job. Simple as that right?

Lets say he and Swanson are up here (contract, service time, age are thrown out for this exercise) and Swanson struggles the first half at SS - low babip, high k's, etc..

Camargo has the hot hand early and its not close. He plays more giving you better production right?

Then, after the ASB, the opposite happens (regression), and Swanson would play more going forward putting Camargo into a utility role.

Is that not maximizing the output for the position on the field?

 

[Tapate50]

You don't need a set number. I've shown how to normalize stats manually based on a .300-.320 BABIP.

He can get lucky and keep a .400 BABIP over 500+ PAs...we've seen players like CJ do it before.

Problem is, we are looking at Camargo as a player for 2000 PAs, not 500. The reason it was dumb to extend CJ is the same reason it's dumb to make Camargo the every day SS.

I wanted to know when the SSS doesn't apply anymore for his offensive output. As we are 300 abs into his improvement, and wanted to really take the full picture of a players that has "improved" his profile. Like what constitutes legitimate improvement. You numbers guys like to quantify, and I wanted to do the same.

 

[nsacpi]

When he turns into a pumpkin, he gets back into a back up job. Simple as that right?

Arguably he has already turned back into a pumpkin (BABIP of .300 and OPS of .686 in his last 86 PAs). But there is no bright neon sign attached to his jersey announcing "i am now a pumpkin." So it might take a while to reach that conclusion. That's the risk with playing the seemingly hot hand.

 

[Enscheff]

I wanted to know when the SSS doesn't apply anymore for his offensive output. As we are 300 abs into his improvement, and wanted to really take the full picture of a players that has "improved" his profile. Like what constitutes legitimate improvement. You numbers guys like to quantify, and I wanted to do the same.

He has established a sustainable BABIP in the 300-320 range. We don't need to wait for his BABIP to come back down to know it's going to come back down. That's the whole point in knowing which stats are predictive.

He is still striking out and waking at his normal rates. He has an uptick in power that may be real, but simply normalizing hisbstays based on a sustainable BABIP tells us what to expect in the future.

 

[Tapate50]

Arguably he has already turned back into a pumpkin (BABIP of .300 and OPS of .686 in his last 86 PAs). But there is no bright neon sign attached to his jersey announcing "i am now a pumpkin." So it might take a while to reach that conclusion. That's the risk with playing the seemingly hot hand.

And there you go. I'd think that's more than enough. But right now we don't have anyone better, so play on. I was gonna say less than 15 games worth of evaluation.

 

[msstate7]

When he turns into a pumpkin, he gets back into a back up job. Simple as that right?

Lets say he and Swanson are up here (contract, service time, age are thrown out for this exercise) and Swanson struggles the first half at SS - low babip, high k's, etc..

Camargo has the hot hand early and its not close. He plays more giving you better production right?

Then, after the ASB, the opposite happens (regression), and Swanson would play more going forward putting Camargo into a utility role.

Is that not maximizing the output for the position on the field?

Well there is the issue of trading Albies. If we believe in Camargo to the point of trading Albies, it better work

 

[nsacpi]

I wanted to know when the SSS doesn't apply anymore for his offensive output. As we are 300 abs into his improvement, and wanted to really take the full picture of a players that has "improved" his profile. Like what constitutes legitimate improvement. You numbers guys like to quantify, and I wanted to do the same.

Some of us believe that you can already "bank" on the improvement in ISO. That part of the improvement is probably real. But we are skeptical about the BABIP.

 

[Tapate50]

He has established a sustainable BABIP in the 300-320 range. We don't need to wait for his BABIP to come back down to knownkts going to come back down.

He is still striking out and waking at his normal rates. He has an uptick in power that may be real, but simply normalizing hisbstays based on a sustainable BABIP tells us what to expect in the future.

I wasn't specifically talking about his BABIP here. I know you can normalize that and give us expected production. You have said so, many times. What we still have is a guy that looks to have made significant improvement over his past profile in the minors. I could see another baby step forward, but I think his 680-690 OPS is likely his range. He really needs to improve his walk rate as theres plenty of room to do so- however unlikely.

 

[nsacpi]

I wasn't specifically talking about his BABIP here. I know you can normalize that and give us expected production. You have said so, many times. What we still have is a guy that looks to have made significant improvement over his past profile in the minors. I could see another baby step forward, but I think his 680-690 OPS is likely his range. He really needs to improve his walk rate as theres plenty of room to do so- however unlikely.

If he improves further, I think the two most likely areas are some additional power and a lower strikeout rate. There is less reason to think he will improve the walk rate. Could happen, but lower probability than more power and lower strikeout rate.

 

[50PoundHead]

I like Camargo more than most, but he's probably not the long-term answer at SS and Swanson probably is. That said, there's no question Swanson was scuffling and needed a reset. This team isn't going anywhere, so I don't see what the big deal is in the short term.

Some chuckle at me for my relative skepticism about the front office's pattern of promoting players too aggressively. I think the team should be absolutely certain that a player's foundational skills are solid before promoting them to the next level and I think in Swanson's case, I don't think his skills were set.

I frankly don't know why Swanson is playing 2B in Gwinnett. But they shouldn't consider trading Albies (or Swanson for that matter) and if the move portends a trade, it borders on ridiculous.

Camargo probably translates to a 300 - 350 AB guy. I don't think he's reached his offensive peak in terms of power, but he's a ball-in-play guy and that means he's going to be driven by his BABIP. I wouldn't be surprised if he logged some time in the OF this off-season and next spring training.

 

[Tapate50]

If he improves further, I think the two most likely areas are some additional power and a lower strikeout rate. There is less reason to think he will improve the walk rate. Could happen, but lower probability than more power and lower strikeout rate.

I agree. Improved K rate seems more likely than BB Rate. Agreed on the Pop too as he's still just 23.

Further, how does a full year of Camargo at 3b (in a likely year) result via WAR?

 

[Southcack77]

Simply a bad post. Who said anybody should be given anything? But you think it makes sense to have a good prospect in Albies and your once future SS playing the same position? It signals one may be gone or your winging it. I guarantee I've seen more of both than you have.

As far as I know Swanson and Albies don't currently play on the same team.

As far as I know they've never played the same position on the same team.

when that does happen maybe ur will be time to sorry about it. Maybe.

 

[Enscheff]

Arguably he has already turned back into a pumpkin (BABIP of .300 and OPS of .686 in his last 86 PAs). But there is no bright neon sign attached to his jersey announcing "i am now a pumpkin." So it might take a while to reach that conclusion. That's the risk with playing the seemingly hot hand.

Here is the calc I did when he had 100+ total PAs back when we were first debating how good Camargo is:

.300 BABIP: 24 hits in 80 balls in play, removed 6 singles and 3 doubles, leads to a slash line of .231/.264/.375 (.639 OPS)

.320 BABIP: 26 hits in 80 balls in play, removed 5 singles and 2 doubles, leads to a slash line of .250/.282/.404 (.686 OPS)

That calc was done when he was "hot" and predicted his production going forward pretty well when he was no longer "hot".

 

[Tapate50]

I like Camargo more than most, but he's probably not the long-term answer at SS and Swanson probably is. That said, there's no question Swanson was scuffling and needed a reset. This team isn't going anywhere, so I don't see what the big deal is in the short term.

Some chuckle at me for my relative skepticism about the front office's pattern of promoting players too aggressively. I think the team should be absolutely certain that a player's foundational skills are solid before promoting them to the next level and I think in Swanson's case, I don't think his skills were set.

I frankly don't know why Swanson is playing 2B in Gwinnett. But they shouldn't consider trading Albies (or Swanson) for that matter and if the move portends a trade, it borders on ridiculous.

Camargo probably translates to a 300 - 350 AB guy. I don't think he's reached his offensive peak in terms of power, but he's a ball-in-play guy and that means he's going to be driven by his BABIP. I wouldn't be surprised if he logged some time in the OF this off-season and next spring training.

Agree on this in particular, but the whole post entirely.

 

[Preacher]

This. All freaking day.

If you believe Camargo might be for real, that's fine. We have an easy opportunity to give him a shot to prove that. We have no 3B for the rest of this season and perhaps none for next year, either. He also plays 3B better than he does SS. So just let him play 3B, trade Phillips for anything you can get, and have Dansby at SS and Albies at 2B.

It is that easy.

yes, amen.

 

[nsacpi]

I agree. Improved K rate seems more likely than BB Rate. Agreed on the Pop too as he's still just 23.

Further, how does a full year of Camargo at 3b (in a likely year) result via WAR?

BABIP around .320, with current ISO, walk rate and strikeout rate numbers as well as above average defense at third probably gets you 1-2 WAR over a full season.

 

[nsacpi]

Here is the calc I did when he had about 86 total PAs back when we were first debating how good Camargo is:

.300 BABIP: 24 hits in 80 balls in play, removed 6 singles and 3 doubles, leads to a slash line of .231/.264/.375 (.639 OPS)

.320 BABIP: 26 hits in 80 balls in play, removed 5 singles and 2 doubles, leads to a slash line of .250/.282/.404 (.686 OPS)

That calc was done when he was "hot" and predicted his production going forward pretty well when he was no longer "hot".

I think it is pretty clear that right now (with a normalized BABIP) he is a .650-.700 OPS guy. Good for a utility player. Marginal for a regular.

It is relevant to point out, however, that Swanson is probably a .650-.700 OPS guy right now. I believe he has more room for growth than Camargo, but I think it is hardly a slam dunk.

 

[Southcack77]

Arguably he has already turned back into a pumpkin (BABIP of .300 and OPS of .686 in his last 86 PAs). But there is no bright neon sign attached to his jersey announcing "i am now a pumpkin." So it might take a while to reach that conclusion. That's the risk with playing the seemingly hot hand.

I don't think any of us are saying hand short and second to Swanson and Albies on a silver platter. I like having Camargo push them for playing time. I think Camargo might be in the process of making the case that he should be a regular. But I think there needs to be an understanding of what has driven his success so far and what that implies for his future success. As well as an understanding of what kind of appropriate sample size is needed to upgrade one's assessment of Camargo relative to the others is a really meaningful way. And I say that as someone who thinks there is a significant chance Camargo turns out to be better than Swanson.

That's fine and I agree. Obviously it would be unlikely that Camargo would put up a career BABIP of .400.

I don't think anyone including the front office thinks he will.

But he hardly has to do that to hit better than Swanson did this season.

I think his coming back to earth has been hitting about . 260, which is still 40 points better than what floppy was managing.

These are people freaking out because Camargo is hitting over his head who aren't considering that maybe Dansby isn't actually good either.

i don't know. I'm open to floppy figuring it out and coming back with. Vengeance. But this is a #1 pick whose organization gave up on him shortly after drafting him who hasn't looked like a star at most any point in my opinion.

 

[msstate7]

That's fine and I agree. Obviously it would be unlikely that Camargo would put up a career BABIP of .400.

I don't think anyone including the front office thinks he will.

But he hardly has to do that to hit better than Swanson did this season.

I think his coming back to earth has been hitting about . 260 whiz is still 40 points better than what flpppy was managing.

These are people freaking out because Camargo is hitting over his head who aren't considering that maybe Dansby isn't actually good either.

i don't know. I'm open to floppy figuring it out and coming back with. Vengeance. But this is a #1 pick whose organization gave up on him shortly after drafting him who hasn't looked like a star at most any point in my opinion.

Wow, whiz... floppy... show me on the doll where dansby touched you? Your personal disdain for Swanson is obviously real and weird

 

[nsacpi]

That's fine and I agree. Obviously it would be unlikely that Camargo would put up a career BABIP of .400.

I don't think anyone including the front office thinks he will.

But he hardly has to do that to hit better than Swanson did this season.

I think his coming back to earth has been hitting about . 260, which is still 40 points better than what floppy was managing.

These are people freaking out because Camargo is hitting over his head who aren't considering that maybe Dansby isn't actually good either.

i don't know. I'm open to floppy figuring it out and coming back with. Vengeance. But this is a #1 pick whose organization gave up on him shortly after drafting him who hasn't looked like a star at most any point in my opinion.

See my post just above yours. I agree with the part that Swanson is probably in the same range as Camargo as a hitter. But I think I've always been a bit lower than the consensus around here when it comes to Swanson.