Maybe the Braves confused BPA with Best Pitcher Available.
Not what AA will do, but what he should do...
- Thread starter Horsehide Harry
- Start date
Maybe the Braves confused BPA with Best Pitcher Available.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Iirc aa favored drafting pitchers in Toronto.
I think you have to go bpa in the top 2 rounds unless you have some pool money game or you have a lot of guys with similar grades.
I wouldn’t mind seeing less pitchers but I get the importance of arms.
I do not see trading ff. Reality is they need someone to sell. Acuna not going to cut it early.
Another punt year is the right play imo
I think you have to go bpa in the top 2 rounds unless you have some pool money game or you have a lot of guys with similar grades.
I wouldn’t mind seeing less pitchers but I get the importance of arms.
I do not see trading ff. Reality is they need someone to sell. Acuna not going to cut it early.
Another punt year is the right play imo
Hudson2
Well-known member
So you’re advocating trading Acuna?
I think he meant Acuna isn’t going to cut it as a main attraction. He is likely as close to untouchable as any prospect gets.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I don't really believe in the main attraction concept. I know it's going back a ways but it's Atlanta and I think relevant. Dale Murphy was one of the top players in baseball in the mid 80's. The Braves rebuilt in what would eventually become the 90's dynasty. They held onto Murphy as the main attraction and he brought in the 5,000 or so every night just like clockwork. But they completely wasted his value and by the time they were coalescing to be good, Murphy's ability cratered and his value was essentially nil.
I think the main attraction is more about sentiment and the hope (not guarantee) for a few extra dollars than baseball.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
That is what I meant
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
No one could have predicted Murphy's skills diminishing as quickly as they did. He was coming off statistically the best year of his career. Even still, Freeman is 28, not 32. There is plenty of reason to assume he will still be playing at a high level in 2/3 years whenever our competitive window should be in the midst of it's ascent.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
They held onto Murphy as the main attraction guy. And even as great as he was they were only putting about 5k a night in Fulton County by the time they traded him. My point about Murphy is that the one guy main attraction is a fallacy in baseball, specifically in Atlanta. You might make the argument that there will be no T-shirts sold without a Murphy or Freeman and that may be so but not relevant enough to make bad baseball decisions.
Murphy had had some injury issues along the way and under no circumstances was he going to get younger as time went on. When the Braves of the mid 80's committed to rebuild, they should have traded Murphy for best package of young players available. They didn't because they fell into the trap of thinking that one star player would make up for the other 24 stiffs. And they lost his value and he ultimately was not around when the team got good again. But, what if he HAD been around in 1991? What would he have been for the mix in Atlanta? He certainly wouldn't have been the MVP level player he was in the mid 80's. He likely would have been a mid 30's outfielder who strikes out a lot with diminishing average, power, defensive range, arm and ability to play every day. And they would have been trying to mix him in with Gant and Justice.
In the mid 80's when they started the rebuild, the 1991 outcome for Murphy was probably something along the likes of: 10% out of baseball, 30% injured and diminished but still playing, 50% still playing but at an age diminished level, 9% still playing at his mid 80's level of ability, 1% playing better than he ever had. That's a 90% bad outcome for the Braves.
Freeman is younger than Murphy so that's a strong point in his favor. However, good as he is, he has never approached peak Murphy performance. He also has had injury along the way - eyes, multiple hand injury, etc. I would put the expected outcome for 2020 for Freeman at: 5% out of baseball, 30% injured and diminished but still playing, 30% still playing but at an age diminished level, 25% still playing at current ability, 10% playing better than he ever has. That's a 65% bad outcome for the Braves, 35% good outcome for the Braves. But, even the good outcome begins to shift much more toward the Murphy profile for every year beyond 2020 which is where the majority of the Braves window should be. Also, Freeman is a FA after 2021. (And here's a subtle point), even IF Freeman is good, useful and earns his contract throughout its term, which could very well be the case, should he be extended after 2021 as the Braves navigate their window of contention? I say that's a dangerous position for a GM to be in. Look at what KC did to appease fans and their own hopes by re-signing fan favorite, but diminishing skills, Alex Gordon. That is now one of the worst contracts in baseball tieing up much of the Royals payroll space just as they needed it to try to keep their young core in tact.
The problem with this line of thinking is that while he's the MAIN attraction, he's not the lone ranger-type that Murph was. The pieces already in place around him (Ender, Albies, Swanson, Teheran, Gohara) and the pieces about to drop (Acuna, Soroka, Wright, Riley) are worlds better - and more marketable - than anything the 1980s Braves had to work or build with.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
In 1986 the Braves had a 28 YO 1B named Bob Horner (probably a better comp for Freeman and we know how that worked out), a 28 YO SS named Pacual Perez, 25 YO starter named Zane Smith, 26 YO Craig McMurtry, 25 YO Paul Assenmacher
1987: 23 YO Andres Thomas broke in and looked like the next big thing. 24 YO Dion James, 26 YO Gerald Perry, and they broke in Tom Glavine, Pete Smith, Kevin Coffman, etc.
1988: 23 YO Ron Gant broke in at 2B, 22 YO Jeff Blauser got 74 PA, 22 YO Mark Lemke got 64 PA, 24 YO Tommy Gregg got 31, Smoltz broke in with 12 starts, etc.
1989: 26 YO Jeff Treadway took over 2B (Gant went back to ml ball to learn OF), Gregg started in RF, Oddibe McDowell got 308 PA and played CF at 26, David Justice got 56 PA, Lilliquist and Mart Clary started a lot of games, 28 YO Joe Boever was closer.
1990: Braves finish 65-97. Murphy is traded mid season at age 34 with Tommy Greene (probably equivalent to Soroka of today) for Jeff Parrett, Jim Vatcher and Victor Rosario. Also, pre-season, the Braves filled their 3B hole by trading for 28 YO Jim Pressley (lasted one season with Atlanta) of Seattle for Gary Eave and Ken Pennington (Eave was well thought of but not a huge loss, Pennington never really did anything); Core of future dynasty was in place - Gant, Justice, Smoltz, Glavine, treadway, Blauser, Lemke, Charlie Liebrant was signed as a 33 YO FA, Avery, Merker, Stanton, etc.
They completely wasted Murphy's value. They also had some bad luck when they signed 30 YO 1B, Nick Esasky, in 1990 in effort to jumpstart the run when Esasky came down with vertigo caused by a tick bite. But, they had spent 5-6 years with some of the worst records in baseball slowly building up waves of talent in the minor leagues that would carry a 15 year run of very good teams through the 90's and into the 2000's.
All names above do not include: Chipper, Klesko, Javy Lopez, Wohlers who were part of future waves that were further down in the minors and would supplement the window of contention as needed.
You realize you're arguing with a guy who thinks the Braves can get Odorizzi for a player about to be non-tendered, and the Braves could have gotten Sale for a package centered around Jenkins....right?
Unless he hears it on XM radio, he doesn't even consider it.
The names above DO include: Andres Thomas, (who NEVER looked like "the next big thing"), Dion James, Gerald Perry, Kevin Coffman, Tommy Gregg, Jeff Treadway, Odibe McDowell Derek Lilliquist,Matt Clary, Jeff Parrett, Jim Vatcher, Victor Rosario, etc..
Your above quote looks an awful lot like it was taken from an article somewhere without being noted.
This is simply another one of those situations where scouting by the numbers fails - none of the players you mentioned that I listed above were EVER the same level of player/prospect as the Inciartes, Albieses, Swansons, Teherans, Goharas, Acunas, Sorokas, Wrights, and Rileys are.
I watched those players every day 30+ years ago as well, and in the vast majority of cases you're simply comparing apples to oranges because they played on bad Braves teams.
Not how it happened. It's true that Cox didn't want to be remembered (blamed?) for trading a franchise icon , there was an overriding philosophy guiding his tenure as GM. That was to stockpile young pitching. Have personally posted verifiable offers several times, dating back to scout days.
San Diego offered Roberto Alomar(worth it alone!), Sandy Alomar Jr. and John Kruk.
The Mets offered Len Dykstra, Howard Johnson and Rick Aguilera.
(All of the above named players were later traded to other clubs.)
Not going to speculate which offer was better. However, there were definite needs at CF, 3B and closer, although the Mets may not have attempted to convert Aguilera from starter yet. Cox insisted that David West be included instead of Aguilera. West was an outstanding prospect, at the time, but busted. As for the Padres' offer, do not know why it was rejected. Maybe Cox pushed for Andy Benes?
Murphy's "value" wasnt run down as much as the team around him were a joke. The only protection in the lineup was provided by Bob Horner, who left for Japan without an offer during the collusion era.
By the time Murphy finally was traded it was to make room in RF for Justice, who was playing at 1st. Otherwise, they might just as well have held onto him until the end.
Attendance couldn't have been much worse. Some people go, just because it's something to do on a summer night. True, they weren't paying to see Rafael Ramirez!
He didn't, but somebody did an awfully good job of convincing others that he might. Very close to including him on a package to Pittsburgh for Bonds.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I criticized Wren for not having a blueprint and sticking to it and was hopeful that Coppolella and company would have one, but alas, they likewise jumped all over the place. At the very least, I hope that Anthropoulos has some type of plan that he will stick to and see through. I'm just sick of sideways moves for the sake of making moves. I've seen a decade of that.
As per Rafael Ramirez, he didn't boost overall attendance, but I heard tell that the seats behind first base were always full because the chances of getting a souvenir on an errant throw were pretty high.
As per Rafael Ramirez, he didn't boost overall attendance, but I heard tell that the seats behind first base were always full because the chances of getting a souvenir on an errant throw were pretty high.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I'm working on the assumption that you really can't be this stupid.
Taking that as a given, Andres Thomas was an international signing (Dominican) that was promoted as the Braves from a marketing standpoint just like Camargo, Albies and Acuna (Albies and Acuna were not big bonus babies). He debuted as a 21 YO (I would argue that the Braves rushed him). I'm not arguing that he was a great player or ever would be. But the Braves promoted him up the chain and from a marketing standpoint as one of the answers. He wasn't. Will Camargo be?
Dion James was drafted 25th in the first round of the 1980 draft by Milwaukee and was acquired by Atlanta for Brad Komminsk and played MLB baseball until he was 33.
Gerald Perry was an 11th round guy for the Braves in 1978 who played MLB until he was 34.
Coffman was an 11th round guy who debuted in Atlanta at 22 and hung around baseball (mostly minors) until 30.
Gregg was acquired from Pittsburgh for Ken Oberkfell. He played in ML baseball until he was 33.
Treadway played in MLB until he was 32.
Mcdowell was taken 12th in the 1st Round of the 1984 draft. Played until he was 31.
Lilliquist was taken 6th in the 1st in 1987. Played until he was 30.
Clary was taken 3rd round 1983. Played until 28.
Parrett, Vatcher and Rosario were all referenced as how little the Braves got back for Murphy. Obviously not as great assets.
All of the above passed through the Braves rebuild of the mid-late 80's. Some were bonus babies, others not. But at various times the Braves at the time tried to convince the masses that these players would be part of the solution just as current and previous management has tried to convince that guys like Sims, Garcia, Jace Peterson, etc. are somehow part of the answer.
But, none of that is the point anyway. the point was that the Braves kept their best trade asset (Murphy) throughout most of the rebuild trying to somehow save face with the fans and keep a few butts in the seats and that didn't work. Attendance fell to horrible levels and Murphy diminished until the Braves had to include Tommy Greene (taken 14th in the 1st round in 1985 and played ML ball until he was 28 - going 16-4 with a 3.42 and finishing 6th in the Cy Young for the Phillies in 1993) to make the trade for Parrett, Vatcher and Rosario happen. The Braves completely wasted Murphy's value.
As Knucksie says the Braves were approached on Murphy multiple times with offers that would have really made a difference for the Braves and they declined, over and over, either wanting to "win" any trade or not really wanting to trade him anyway (depending on how you look at it) all the way up until Murphy had no value.
I also notice that you left out the fact that the Braves were breaking in Glavine, Smoltz, Gant, Justice, Blauser, Lemke, Stanton etc. I guess that didn't further your side of the discussion.
As for "Your quote looks like an awful lot like it was taken, blah, blah" I don't know what the h*ll you are talking about. That is a bizarre statement even from you. PSA - I don't have any interest in "stealing" anybody else's stuff for publication. Hey, I don't even have an infantile blog to update.
Come on, admit it and tell us. How often do you check your blog in effort to keep the view count up?
If other clubs sensed that there wasn't a certain level of seriousness, discussions wouldn't have made it that far. Those were only 2 known examples. Who knows what else might have been offered?
Used to tangle with Mike Adams at Scout over Cox's job as GM. Apart from the stockpiling of young pitchers, his work was very spotty. To be fair, it was likely a situation of Stan Kasten deliberately wanting the team to suck so badly and for so long. Revenues were solid with Superstation TBS, and it assured high draft positions. Tanking strategy before it became fashionable.