Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread

I've said this before but I could see something like: Verlander, Zimmerman,, Fulmer and Kinsler coming back to the Braves for not much, but the not much would have to include Kemp going the other way to make it work. Verlander is owed $28M through 2019 w/$22M vesting option (unlikely), Zimmerman is owed $25M per through 2020, Kinsler is owed $10M through 2018 ($5M buyout) and Fulmer is pre-arb with 5 years of control.

Kemp for the Braves is owed about $18M per through 2019.

So Detroit clears about: $28, 28, 25, 25, 25, 10,1 = $142M
Braves clear about: $36M

The Braves have to send prospects as well, but not much of value IMO because of the big money savings by Detroit, which is what they need and want. Braves send maybe one headliner, let's say Allard, plus Sims, Wisler and Blair.

So the blockbuster would be: Verlander, Zimmerman, Kinsler, Fullmer for Kemp, Allard, Sims, Wisler & Blair

It sounds like a lot of money the Braves are taking on, and it is. However, they just spent $8M on Dickey, $12.5M on Colon and $12M on Garcia (total= $32.5M) compared to the $28M + $25M + $1M = $54M of the Detroit players MINUS the albatross of Kemp's contract ($18M) essentially means that the real money comparison is $32.5M for 2017 veterans versus $36M (accounting for Kemp's money) for $36M. Kinsler is essentially $4M more than Sean Rodriguez & Phillips so the deal would be a net add of $8M over 2017 payroll yet would fill a number of holes.

2017 Rotation: Verlander, Fulmer, Folty, Teheran, Zimmerman (you obviously make some trades here asap to open room for some of the kids)

Lineup: Inciarte, Albies, Acuna, Freeman, Kinsler (3B), Markakis, Flowers, Swanson - Markakis, Flowers and Kinsler ($25M come off payroll after 2018)

This all assumes that Detroit is looking to rebuild and shed salary. Upton probably opts out if they start rebuilding and/or waives his no trade, so he could be gone after 2018. Victor Martinez is gone after 2018. Anibal Sanchez gets bought out. Their big problem is Miguel Cabrera as he is owed another $164M through his buy out in 2024. The only way they move him is to pay a majority of what he is owed and the only way they could do THAT would be to take the payroll way down, which they could do after 2018. They could be rebuilding now through 2020 with a real possibility to once again be competitive in the 2021-2023 range. If they stay status quo, they will be old and overpaid and underperforming that whole time. If you are going to lose anyway, you might as well do it in a rebuilding mode.
 
Can someone explain to me why trading Verlander is such a hot topic on the message boards and the media in general?

Verlander has a no trade clause, 10 and 5 rights and a terrible contract that has an option year. The Tigers won't decide to trade Verlander. Verlander will decide when and if he is traded. My guess Verlander will make a team pick up at least a portion of the money on his option year.

Verlander is a Tiger for life.
 
Oklahomabrave said:
If we are talking off-season deals I'd prefer still targeting Archer. The Rays are stuck in perpetual retooling and might accept Matt Adams as a fourth piece instead of an extra prospect, or seem like the type of team that might be higher than normal on Comargo. Not that the prospect haul wouldn't still hurt, but they may have their eye on some of our less touted guys to make it hurt less.
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... what he said
 
thethe said:
Give me Cole hammels. Probably wouldn't cost anything and is only guaranteed for 2018 with an option for 19.

Would love to see him back in the NL.
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Yeah would be a smart move. Would like to see these young pitchers make full progress. Who knows who will flame out and who will succeed. Just still too early. We will not really contend next year. Maybe "make" the playoffs, but that's it.
 
Oklahomabrave said:
Yeah, that move in a vacuum would be not ideal. Curious to see the 3b market develop. Like last year with Turner,not sure a lot of teams will have a need. At the right price I like Moose better than most on the board. Maybe the Mariners decide to sell and Seager becomes available, and I'm a fan of dealing with their insane GM.
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I've thought about Seager as well. There's not a logical reason to trade him but Dipoto aint afraid to deal. I've also wondered if King Felix would be an option. He had a down year followed by an injury riddled year and lord knows they need to restock that minor league system somehow.
 
Longoria is probably a more realistic trade target. He is owed $86m if they buy out his option, and should produce about 10 wins over that time.

That's a surplus value of $15m+, which the Braves could easily afford to pay in prospect capital. I'm guessing one FV 50 pitching prospect and a couple of those fringe MLB guys the A's and Rays seem to overvalue.
 
Enscheff said:
Longoria is probably a more realistic trade target. He is owed $86m if they buy out his option, and should produce about 10 wins over that time.

That's a surplus value of $15m+, which the Braves could easily afford to pay in prospect capital. I'm guessing one FV 50 pitching prospect and a couple of those fringe MLB guys the A's and Rays seem to overvalue.
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Add Archer to the deal. I'm game
 
I don't see the rays moving archer. I'm not looking to move 3 plus guys in our top 8

The like the fulmer plus salary options but the tigers might not be that desperate to move salary. Plus all of their bad deals have no trade clauses so...

Ff back to third. He was bad but not as bad as our corner of.
Kemp to fb.

Inciarte
D Peterson
Ff
Kemp
Neck---after a month acuna goes here and swap with Peterson
Flowers
Swanson
P
Albies

Folty
Tehran
Newcombe
Sims
Vet we sign to one year deal

That team is better than this years team, cheaper and much younger
 
Some valuation arithmetic on Verlander.

First production projections: 3 WAR in 2018 (age 36), 2 WAR each in 2019 and 2020.

Second, assume his 2020 option is guaranteed. I think this has to be done to get him to waive his no trade rights.

Third, assume the Tigers pony up 10M in 2018 and 2019 and 5 M in 2020. This leaves the acquiring club on the hook for 18M in 2018 and 2019 and 17 M in 2020.

In the above scenario the acquiring team is paying 53M for 7 wins. Assuming a FA market price this upcoming off-season of 9M per win, this implies a surplus value of about 10M or slightly over 1 win. My guess is that we would have to send a package of prospects worth 2-3 wins to get him under the terms outlined above. This could be a single player along the lines of Toussaint or Pache or Wilson. Or a larger package of lesser players.

I would like to see us make this sort of deal. We take on a significant salary obligation (which is more than covered by the expiring contracts of Colon and Garcia) but at the same time avoid losing any of our core prospects.

It gives us a 2018 rotation of Verlander, Teheran, Folty, Dickey and Newcomb.

With Gohara, Soroka, Allard and Sims starting 2018 in AAA and Wright in AA, it positions us to start trading out of a major league pitching surplus as early as mid 2018 to fill areas of need (ie third base and maybe corner outfield and catcher).

If we cannot excute a trade along those lines, plan B for me would be to find a starting pitcher willing to sign on to a 3 year or less deal. The premium guys will get a longer deal, but guys like Cobb, Lynn or Jaime Garcia might settle for 3 years or less.

I do attach a significant amount of importance to limiting the length of any contract taken on either via trade or free agency for a veteran pitcher. Imo the risk in these contracts is usually the years not the AAV.
 
I really don't understand the point of draft pitchers and trade for pitchers. Then the rumors are that we will trade our batters to get pitchers.
 
nsacpi said:
Some valuation arithmetic on Verlander.

First production projections: 3 WAR in 2018 (age 36), 2 WAR each in 2019 and 2020.

Second, assume his 2020 option is guaranteed. I think this has to be done to get him to waive his no trade rights.

Third, assume the Tigers pony up 10M in 2018 and 2019 and 5 M in 2020. This leaves the acquiring club on the hook for 18M in 2018 and 2019 and 17 M in 2020.

In the above scenario the acquiring team is paying 53M for 7 wins. Assuming a FA market price this upcoming off-season of 9M per win, this implies a surplus value of about 10M or slightly over 1 win. My guess is that we would have to send a package of prospects worth 2-3 wins to get him under the terms outlined above. This could be a single player along the lines of Toussaint or Pache or Wilson. Or a larger package of lesser players.

I would like to see us make this sort of deal. We take on a significant salary obligation (which is more than covered by the expiring contracts of Colon and Garcia) but at the same time avoid losing any of our core prospects.

It gives us a 2018 rotation of Verlander, Teheran, Folty, Dickey and Newcomb.

With Gohara, Soroka, Allard and Sims starting 2018 in AAA and Wright in AA, it positions us to start trading out of a major league pitching surplus as early as mid 2018 to fill areas of need (ie third base and maybe corner outfield and catcher).

If we cannot excute a trade along those lines, plan B for me would be to find a starting pitcher willing to sign on to a 3 year or less deal. The premium guys will get a longer deal, but guys like Cobb, Lynn or Jaime Garcia might settle for 3 years or less.

I do attach a significant amount of importance to limiting the length of any contract taken on either via trade or free agency for a veteran pitcher. Imo the risk in these contracts is usually the years not the AAV.
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Actually fits along my Plan A (although we all know what those are worth!) - I'd love to see...

1.) Adams, Adonis, and Wisler shipped to KC for Seuly Matias - mainly to clear Adams' money (whatever he's going to get in arbitration) and to help with the impending 40-Man Roster crunch. KC gets a little cheap production to offset the losses of Moustakas and whichever of Cain or Hosmer they don't re-sign, and I'm betting they hold onto Cain since he'll probably be the least expensive (really think Hosmer's a great fit in several places next winter, but think he'd be an interesting fit in Colorado).

2.) Sign Moustakas for 4/$68 million. If he eventually gets in Riley's way, so be it. The only guy I don't want to block at 3B is Maitan, and 4 years isn't likely to get in his way.

3.) Sign Lynn or Cobb for 3/$36 million. This gives you plenty of time to let the kids begin to iron themselves out. Yes, it only leaves one rotation spot open at the beginning of the season, but that's OK by me. If we break camp with Folty/Lynn or Cobb/Teheran/Dickey/Newcomb, that's a more than good enough rotation for this team to make some noise - especially early on. It also makes one of Julio or Newcomb a *elluva trade chip in the event one of Soroka or Gohara makes a step forward early on, and you might even be able to attach Markakis' contract to one if you want to unload that money. Kinda wonder if Julio and Markakis might not get Chance Sisco and every dime of international bonus money Baltimore's got left.

If you're able to move Adams and don't re-sign Suzuki, that would put Opening Day payroll in the $122-$123 million range plus whatever you'd spend on a (preferably expendable if/when you trade for Sisco) backup for Flowers.
 
On a 4 year deal, I think Moustakas will get an AAV above 20M.

More likely he gets a five year deal for an AAV of around 20M.
 
nsacpi said:
On a 4 year deal, I think Moustakas will get an AAV above 20M.

More likely he gets a five year deal for an AAV of around 20M.
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Mous strikes me as a guy some team that thinks they're smarter than they really are will give a 6 year deal worth over $100m because he is young, hits HRs, and plays decent defense.

Seems exactly like something the Braves would do.
 
Enscheff said:
Mous strikes me as a guy some team that thinks they're smarter than they really are will give a 6 year deal worth over $100m because he is young, hits HRs, and plays decent defense.

Seems exactly like something the Braves would do.
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Eerily similar to the defense of the BJ Upton contract IIRC.
 
3/5 of the entire Tigers rotation all in one quick, easy trade. Yeah, that sounds realistic!

This is exactly why there needs to be a roll eyes emoji here.
 
nsacpi said:
On a 4 year deal, I think Moustakas will get an AAV above 20M.

More likely he gets a five year deal for an AAV of around 20M.
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I could live with $20 million per so long as it doesn't take more than 4 years to get him - we've got plenty of money coming off the books to handle that, especially when you consider some of the higher-dollar contracts that are currently on the books will be replaced with actual upgrades that'll be making the minimum. Lynn would be an upgrade over Garcia for the same money, Newcomb/Sims/Fried/Soroka/Gohara/Wright/Allard will be an upgrade over Big Sexy (and eventually Dickey) and save a big chunk of change. Acuna's going to be an upgrade over Markakis, saving another chunk. If you eventually move Julio and replace him with another of the kids, there's even more savings.

If it takes 5 years to land Moustakas, I'd pass.
 
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