Official 2024 Off-Season Thread!

Hudson2 said:
All 3 of those wouldn’t get you close? Put the pipe down bc it definitely would.
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My guy, Waldrep and AJSS are 50 FV prospects. 50 FV SPs are valued at about 20 million in FV. It's safe to say Grissom is worth less than they are. But we'll give him 15 million in FV for ****s and giggles. That's our top 3 "prospects" and they hold combined value of roughly 55 million in FV. I'm sorry, but that simply isn't likely to land you a stud pitcher with 2 years remaining.

Before we consider the bidding war driving the price up, understand that Cease likely has a minimum of 60 million in FV.

Imagine last-offseason. What would you have demanded for 2 years of Max Fried? I'm sure it would have been more than two 50 FV SPs and a MI "prospect" who may not even be a MIFer long term.
 
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Heyward said:
I think the goal is to not have to start Elder. And Morton is 40 years old, you never know if he'll just break down. You at least need someone more reliable as a #3 than that. Our top 2 is fine next year but for a playoff series, you need better.
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I think the other angle is that they are expecting Fried and Morton to move on after next season. Smith-Shawver and Waldrep may be ready, but I don't think Anthopoulos wants to roll the dice on the odds of that occurring. We have a window and I think Anthopoulos wants (and frankly needs) another solid pitcher who is more than simply an innings-eater in recognition that the window won't be open forever.
 
50PoundHead said:
I think the other angle is that they are expecting Fried and Morton to move on after next season. Smith-Shawver and Waldrep may be ready, but I don't think Anthopoulos wants to roll the dice on the odds of that occurring. We have a window and I think Anthopoulos wants (and frankly needs) another solid pitcher who is more than simply an innings-eater in recognition that the window won't be open forever.
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agree 100%

Only add that the last two post seasons we've had 1-2 starters. AA may have some PTSD. He's going to want depth. Ideally only 1 of Elder/AJSS/Waldrep do you have in your regular rotation this year. The younger guys also have the option of having stuff that plays up in the Pen or in short stents in the playoffs.

I think AA has to keep thinking about the balance between post season and regular season baseball. The best route to success is to win the division and get in the dance. But we need to be able to flip to playoffs too.

Ive been high on Elder before he pitched and stuck with it when he stunk. But I've always said a really good 5. He should be helping us get to October while he's cost controlled and he should not be on the roster in the playoffs.
 
I'm confused why some people want us to trade for Glasnow. Dude has so many injury problems, he's 29 and has pitched more than 100 innings all of twice (and barely at that). I get he's very good when healthy, but history says that's not often.
 
Cease does not have $60 million in trade value lol... the trade evaluation tool suggests something more along the lines of $40 million surplus value.

AJSS plus Grissom runs around $35 million surplus value.

AJSS/Grissom + some lower level prospects would be a fair deal... however it's likely gotta be higher than that just because there will be competition.
 
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thewupk said:
I very much doubt Cease has 60 million in trade value over 2 years.
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Cease probably projects for 5-6 wins over the next 2 years, and will likely be paid something like $21M over during that time.

I'm not sure where the $/WAR value is nowadays, but it's likely around $9M per WAR.

The simple math is $45M-$54M minus the $21M he will be paid. Maybe round up since the arb control means he can be dumped in the event his arm falls off, so a team can eliminate half the downside risk.

I'd estimate his surplus value at around $30M-$40M, which means the ChiSox should be shooting for a 50+ as the headliner and then nice filler to round out the deal. If a team offers 2 50s they likely win the bidding.

Additionally, while Cease is undoubtedly a TOR guy, he is a clear step down from guys like Strider and Fried. He's closer to Gray than he is to Strider/Fried, so some folks may be overvaluing him a bit.
 
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Cease has averaged 4.2 fWAR over the last 3 seasons. He'll be 28 to start next season. I see no reason not to expect between 7-8 wins over the next 2 seasons assuming health. I rounded up to 8. That would give him roughly 70-80 million in FV. Again I rounded up cause I don't know what the current rate of $/WAR, but I assume it's around 10 million. Subtract roughly 20 million what he's likely to make in arby and you have 60 million in FV
 
zbhargrove said:
Cease does not have $60 million in trade value lol... the trade evaluation tool suggests something more along the lines of $40 million surplus value.

AJSS plus Grissom runs around $35 million surplus value.

AJSS/Grissom + some lower level prospects would be a fair deal... however it's likely gotta be higher than that just because there will be competition.
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Trade valuation tool is garbage by the way.
 
Carp said:
Cease has averaged 4.2 fWAR over the last 3 seasons. He'll be 28 to start next season. I see no reason not to expect between 7-8 wins over the next 2 seasons assuming health. I rounded up to 8. That would give him roughly 70-80 million in FV. Again I rounded up cause I don't know what the current rate of $/WAR, but I assume it's around 10 million. Subtract roughly 20 million what he's likely to make in arby and you have 60 million in FV
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You don't see a reason to project decline in a pitcher who's FA velocity has decreased from 97.6 in 2020 to 95.8 in 2023, K rate has decreased from 12.28 to 10.88, and BB/9 is now over 4? Have you seen pitcher aging curves? Age 28 is right when things start to fall off.

8 fWAR for Cease seems pretty optimistic. I'd confidently bet the under.
 
Carp said:
Cease has averaged 4.2 fWAR over the last 3 seasons. He'll be 28 to start next season. I see no reason not to expect between 7-8 wins over the next 2 seasons assuming health. I rounded up to 8. That would give him roughly 70-80 million in FV. Again I rounded up cause I don't know what the current rate of $/WAR, but I assume it's around 10 million. Subtract roughly 20 million what he's likely to make in arby and you have 60 million in FV
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Ask yourself this. If Cease was on the open market right now would anyone pay him 40 million a year? The answer is no.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
J-Hey back to the Dodgers
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I'm not saying it's time to panic or get worried yet, but the best LF option and 2 of the realistic SP options have come off the board for contracts that seem very reasonable.

So I guess it's time to start taking notice and stop saying "the offseason just started". AA needs to start filling holes while quality options still exist.
 
Still wondering if Pham is gonna be in the mix as an option. I'd rather have a lefty bat, but his attitude may be just what this team needs similar to Joc
 
thewupk said:
Ask yourself this. If Cease was on the open market right now would anyone pay him 40 million a year? The answer is no.
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That's not really how that works.

Judge is the only player getting 40 million per year on the open market for a long length of time, so that's a moot point. Would Cease get 30+ for 6-7 years in AAV if he were a FA right now? Considering his age and production, most likely.
 
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