Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Marlins and Phils are 7-3 in last 10 and lost two games….so great
Official Around Baseball 2023 Thread
- Thread starter Heyward
- Start date
chop2chip
Well-known member
Can someone walk me through this Fangraphs article on team defense?
Defensive metrics are wacky across the board with seemingly minimal correlation across the different measurement systems. Braves rank first in defense using Statcast, but last in defense using UZR (I’m referring to the Z score table mid-way through).
I’m fairly comfortable with the methodology for Statcast OOA for outfielders and pitch framing. But infield defense in particular seems like a mess to decipher.
Don’t get me wrong. These metrics are very useful and the value of an out is well understood. It just feels like we aren’t very good at all at measuring what plays should be made or not.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-look-at-the-best-team-defenses-thus-far/
Defensive metrics are wacky across the board with seemingly minimal correlation across the different measurement systems. Braves rank first in defense using Statcast, but last in defense using UZR (I’m referring to the Z score table mid-way through).
I’m fairly comfortable with the methodology for Statcast OOA for outfielders and pitch framing. But infield defense in particular seems like a mess to decipher.
Don’t get me wrong. These metrics are very useful and the value of an out is well understood. It just feels like we aren’t very good at all at measuring what plays should be made or not.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-look-at-the-best-team-defenses-thus-far/
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
Is it just me or is Olsons' defense seem much better this season compared to last. It seems like he had a lot of mental errors last season.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Yes. OOA loved him last year and hates him this year. I think he’s been better? Btw his “success” rate is the same as last year… 72%.
Riley is the opposite. OOA hated him last year and rates his defense basically average in 2023. Again, sample size and the eye test and all that, but I think he’s been pretty mediocre.
Idk… infield defense is just weird.
Nerfherders
Well-known member
I think defensive metrics will never be properly measured. The only true way to do it would be to test it on the field - a fielding lab. Get 10 SS and run them through about 100 ground balls. Some go left, some go right, some bounce, some don't, some go high, and then measure how many are turned into outs. That would be your control.
The thing is, through an entire season some fielders may get significantly fewer tough plays than others. It's kind of luck of the draw. The ballplayers know who the good fielders are, and we can see it with an eye test sometimes, but if they don't get alot of tough plays, it is often hard to tell.
The thing is, through an entire season some fielders may get significantly fewer tough plays than others. It's kind of luck of the draw. The ballplayers know who the good fielders are, and we can see it with an eye test sometimes, but if they don't get alot of tough plays, it is often hard to tell.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
Another thing that makes it difficult to measure ground balls is the fact that there are so many times where the ball takes a bad bounce by hitting something in the dirt or skipping off the infield grass.
Dansby has a strong case. Lindor is batting .224 on a joke of a team. He wouldn’t get it over Arcia. Don’t know why people care so much about a game that means nothing.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
Was just looking back at the trade history for the Braves under AA. So far there has really been nobody he's traded that has developed into anything special. Really gives validation to the fact that the organization really knows how to identify talent. I wonder if this type of track record makes other teams nervous about trading with the Braves.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/transactions/atlanta-braves/trade/
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/transactions/atlanta-braves/trade/
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I doubt it. It's in the same vain that folks still trade with the Rays. Other front offices probably don't put that much merit into it. They likely do what their scouts and analytics folks say is best.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I'd really like Jordan Montgomery from the Cards at the deadline. He's on an expiring contract and the Cards almost have to sell, right?
Fried - Strider - Elder - Montgomery - Wright/Soroka/AJSS would be great.
Fried - Strider - Elder - Montgomery - Wright/Soroka/AJSS would be great.
striker42
Well-known member
Contreras is the one that has the best chance to be special. He has the 4th highest WAR among catchers with at least 150 PAs this year. He could easily end up a 4 WAR catcher this year.
Of course Murphy leads all catchers on WAR so it's not like the trade isn't working out for us.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
He has a tendency to make moves within about 2 weeks until the deadline, usually smaller ones. Then his bigger moves are the day of the deadline, usually not announced until right at or after the 4pm deadline.
With the expanded playoffs, i'm sure we can expect not much action until the week of the deadline or even until the deadline itself
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
yup! The trade was always going to hurt because it's clear Billiam was widely loved in the clubhouse and is a damn good player, but it's a move you make for a guy who clearly had top catcher upside.
I guess that depends on how much faith you put in Bill's framing going forward. He's been good this year but was pretty poor while in Atlanta. His offense has dropped off like a lot of people thought it would. I think it's hilarious that Ozuna, TDA, and Murphy are all hitting better than Bill and Murphy is the best catcher in the game who's good or better at every part of his job. AA knows what's up.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
Not a fan of these All Star jerseys
Not a fan of these All Star jerseys
So they just made them Mariners colors? That's lazy.
Striker is mad
But we've really only made 2 significant trades under AA: Olson and Murphy. All of the other trades have been for relievers, spare parts, or salary dumps.
Also, Contreras isn't anything special? I would be to differ.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
His heavy lifting occurs during the offseason. Then he makes his tune up moves at the deadline rather than pay premium prices at the deadline for a rental player, or even more for someone with control.