OFFICIAL FALLING AXE PREDICTION THREAD

Not sure if I missed it or nobody has posted it, but here is a tweet from Bob Nightengale from Friday:

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale · 15h
The whispers that started a month ago are getting shouted now; There will be front office changes in Atlanta barring #Braves comeback
 
CrimsonCowboy said:
Not sure if I missed it or nobody has posted it, but here is a tweet from Bob Nightengale from Friday:

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale · 15h
The whispers that started a month ago are getting shouted now; There will be front office changes in Atlanta barring #Braves comeback
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Bob Nightengale has a direct pipeline to John Schuerholz. If he says something, you can pretty much take it to the bank. Right now, I'd say we'll see John Hart named the new GM and he'll be the one who fires Fredi.
 
I would be ecstatic if John Hart was the new GM, but if Wren goes and Fredi stays I will not be a happy camper.

What I think might ultimately doom Wren is the Santana signing. I think he lobbied hard for approval to spend the extra money to sign Santana and he convinced whoever that this was our year. That's certainly how I took their statements about the signing.
 
BTW....can you name the last GM that the Braves fired from the organization? You have to go WAY back.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I would be ecstatic if John Hart was the new GM, but if Wren goes and Fredi stays I will not be a happy camper.

What I think might ultimately doom Wren is the Santana signing. I think he lobbied hard for approval to spend the extra money to sign Santana and he convinced whoever that this was our year. That's certainly how I took their statements about the signing.
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But there's no way you can call the Santana signing anything but a home run! It was only a one-year deal at market value for a guy who will be the Braves' winningest pitcher. No, the BJ signing will be the albatross around Wren's neck so long as he remains here.
 
COGPK said:
BTW....can you name the last GM that the Braves fired from the organization? You have to go WAY back.
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WoW. A killer trivia question. I thought it might be John Mullen, but he moved upstairs when Bobby Cox got the job. I don't even remember the guy, John Alevizos, who was Ted Turner's first GM. He lasted only six months, long enough to sign Andy Messersmith, but was replaced by John Lucas.

Thanks, Wikipedia.
 
Heyward said:
To be fair, thats also because we've brought up alot of players.

Freeman, Heyward, Simmons, Minor, Wood, Julio, Kimbrel, etc, etc.

Thats some good scouting, most of those guys are from Wren.
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To make another point, Freeman and Heyward were before Wren became GM. All of those players except Andrelton Simmons and Alex Wood were also drafted when Roy Clark was the Director of Scouting. Julio Teheran was signed on Roy Clark's watch.

With everything that is coming out, you have to wonder if Roy Clark leaving had something to do with him butting heads with Frank. Frank then replaced him with Tony DeMacio, who was his scouting director in Baltimore. Since DeMacio has taken over, the Braves drafting has changed a lot and has not produced the kind of talent that Paul Snyder and Roy Clark produced.

But once again though, the Braves have promoted guys in the past as well, and they have maintained their top 10 status relative to farm systems. Fact is, the Braves have no one in their system that is a top 50 prospect in baseball right now when they used to always have someone that was a top 25 prospect.
 
rico43 said:
Bob Nightengale has a direct pipeline to John Schuerholz. If he says something, you can pretty much take it to the bank. Right now, I'd say we'll see John Hart named the new GM and he'll be the one who fires Fredi.
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.....or John Coppolella named GM with John Hart as an "overseer".
 
rico43 said:
But there's no way you can call the Santana signing anything but a home run! It was only a one-year deal at market value for a guy who will be the Braves' winningest pitcher. No, the BJ signing will be the albatross around Wren's neck so long as he remains here.
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Its not about Santana ' s performance, it's about the teams performance. That signing brought payroll to a level we haven't seen for a long time. They didn't do that for the team to finish .500 or worse. Wren likely convinced ownership that this was our year if we could just replace Medlen. Just making the the playoffs would be a disappointment but not finishing .500 or worse is a massive fail for the expectations Wren set.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I would be ecstatic if John Hart was the new GM, but if Wren goes and Fredi stays I will not be a happy camper.

What I think might ultimately doom Wren is the Santana signing. I think he lobbied hard for approval to spend the extra money to sign Santana and he convinced whoever that this was our year. That's certainly how I took their statements about the signing.
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I'm not a Wren fan, but I think that was a solid move. If Wren should be blamed for anything related to that move, it would be the fact that we were relying on an injury risk (Beachy) and a guy who wouldn't be ready to start the season (Floyd) to be in the rotation.
 
KB21 said:
To make another point, Freeman and Heyward were before Wren became GM. All of those players except Andrelton Simmons and Alex Wood were also drafted when Roy Clark was the Director of Scouting. Julio Teheran was signed on Roy Clark's watch.

With everything that is coming out, you have to wonder if Roy Clark leaving had something to do with him butting heads with Frank. Frank then replaced him with Tony DeMacio, who was his scouting director in Baltimore. Since DeMacio has taken over, the Braves drafting has changed a lot and has not produced the kind of talent that Paul Snyder and Roy Clark produced.

But once again though, the Braves have promoted guys in the past as well, and they have maintained their top 10 status relative to farm systems. Fact is, the Braves have no one in their system that is a top 50 prospect in baseball right now when they used to always have someone that was a top 25 prospect.
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Roy Clark gets a lot of bouquets, but let's remember that Paul Snyder was with the team until 2008 as director of player development. I think Clark's performance also dipped a bit after Snyder left. Snyder was integral to the building of the dynasty.
 
50PoundHead said:
Roy Clark gets a lot of bouquets, but let's remember that Paul Snyder was with the team until 2008 as director of player development. I think Clark's performance also dipped a bit after Snyder left. Snyder was integral to the building of the dynasty.
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Clark only had two years without Snyder though, and it seems that the Braves really started paying attention to signability issues during that time.

Great point about Paul Snyder though. As sabermetrically inclined as some want to be, including me, you cannot lose sight of or try to diminish traditional scouting. Snyder was as traditional as they come, and the Braves ALWAYS had a top farm system when he was the scouting director.
 
KB21 said:
Clark only had two years without Snyder though, and it seems that the Braves really started paying attention to signability issues during that time.

Great point about Paul Snyder though. As sabermetrically inclined as some want to be, including me, you cannot lose sight of or try to diminish traditional scouting. Snyder was as traditional as they come, and the Braves ALWAYS had a top farm system when he was the scouting director.
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I look at the decision to draft Joey Devine as when a change in thinking started to take place. There were some moves back in the other direction because guys like Heyward, Freeman, and Cody Johnson were drafted in subsequent years. But overall, the mindset seemed to get "smaller" in the mid-00's. I can never put a finger on why that happened other than budget restrictions began to take hold, but the thinking seemed to become a more "win now" and patch the leaks instead of having a top-to-bottom organizational strategy.
 
Enscheff said:
More or less:

Gattis $0.5

Freeman $8.5

TLS $0.5

CJ $6.0

Simmons $3.0

Justin $14.5

Heyward $7.8

Aoki $3.0



CB $0.5

Goss $0.5

BJ $14.5

Terdo $0.5

FA $1.0



Teheran $1.0

Wood $0.5

Minor $5.0

Santana $15.0

SP5 $1.0



Kimbrel $9.0

Walden $2.5

Shae $0.5

Avilan $0.5

Varvaro $1.0

BP6 $1.0

BP7 $0.5



total $98.3

Obviously the CJ contract was stupid, but if he can be unloaded then his money plus Uggla's money can go towards keeping JUp and Heyward past next year. I don't see the Braves saving a dime by getting rid of BJ, so use him as a 4th OFer.

I have to assume all the built in raises for Kimbrel, Simmons, Freeman and Teheran were supposed to be paid for by projected increased revenue of the new stadium and reworked TV deal.
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You forgot we still owe Uggla $13MM for next year.
 
50PoundHead said:
I look at the decision to draft Joey Devine as when a change in thinking started to take place. There were some moves back in the other direction because guys like Heyward, Freeman, and Cody Johnson were drafted in subsequent years. But overall, the mindset seemed to get "smaller" in the mid-00's. I can never put a finger on why that happened other than budget restrictions began to take hold, but the thinking seemed to become a more "win now" and patch the leaks instead of having a top-to-bottom organizational strategy.
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Devine may have been the start of the budget restrictions, but at the time, that draft pick seemed like an aberration to what was a previously proven philosophy. Even in that draft, the Braves still took Beau Jones, Jordan Schafer, Jeff Lyman, and Yunel Escobar.
 
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