Official official offseason thread

Interesting article essentially stating William Contreras is due for regression next year from a xwRC+ perspective. In addition to pointing out his high BABIP, they add:

Contreras’ 15%-line drive rate was actually 5% below the league average. He hit the ball on the ground over 53% of the time with a sweet spot percentage of just 31.9%. This is part of the reason that xwRC+ is so low on him. The BABIP is bound to come down; his average will come with it.

The other primary reason for the model’s skepticism is Contreras’ below-average contact skills. In 2022, Contreras whiffed on 34.3 percent of pitches which is 10 percent worse than league average. The problem is amplified against non-fastballs. On breaking pitches, he whiffed over 42% of the time and 39.4% of the time on off-speed pitches. He also chased both these types of pitches over 32% of the time. Opposing pitchers are able to exploit his contact skills by throwing him secondary offerings he struggles to hit. It is rare for a hitter to maintain success while striking out over 30% of the time which is exactly what xwRC+ believes will continue happening.


https://www.fantraxhq.com/2023-xwrc-fantasy-baseball-busts/
 
That trade looks a lot better having read this…. Good thing AA knows more about his job than I do…. And I’ll be reminded of that again when Freeman falls off of a cliff and Olson is still raking.
 
Hulavol said:
That trade looks a lot better having read this…. Good thing AA knows more about his job than I do…. And I’ll be reminded of that again when Freeman falls off of a cliff and Olson is still raking.
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I am curious to see how these two catchers produce this year. I love WC, and Murph worries me.. but I am pulling for that trade to be a massive crow chow time. I don't think FF is falling anytime soon.. but I do think Olson is going to have a MVP level year.. like top 10 in votes kind of year.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I am curious to see how these two catchers produce this year. I love WC, and Murph worries me.. but I am pulling for that trade to be a massive crow chow time. I don't think FF is falling anytime soon.. but I do think Olson is going to have a MVP level year.. like top 10 in votes kind of year.
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Same boat Matt. We will see and I hope to eat crow too. And it's no slight to Murphy whatsoever. I think we will be happy with him. But screw all that regression talk with WC. LOL
 
I am sure if he performs well in ST he will get a chance.

Would be a bit of a surprise, but it has happened before.
 
I have no idea if Hilliard will be one of the ones that emerge with the rule change, but some will. My biggest concern is some of our pitchers are crippled by the shift ban; pretty sure we shifted among the most in mlb
 
Good point, but I suspect there will still be a lot of shifting going on… just not quite as extreme as before. The middle IF guy will play up the middle most of the time. The biggest difference will be the lack of a short Outfielder (Riley).

Wash has been plotting a new shift strategy all winter, and I’ll bet it will be pretty effective.
 
Tapate50 said:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-case-for-sam-hilliard-everyday-left-fielder/

FG doing a profile on potential starting LF Sam Hilliard.
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I don't know what Fangraphs is doing with the surface stats posted at Baseball Reference. They are telling him to pull, which is what Hilliard has done. His pull rate is above the league average and his opposite field rate is below the league average. His straightaway percentage is within one point of the league average. There isn't any differentiation on whether these rates are similar ground ball-to-fly ball, so there's probably some data that Fangraphs is looking at that bolster their argument. All in all, this reminds me of the piece where the Fangraphs writer thought Ryan Weber was our third-best prospect.
 
As FG loses talented writers/analysts to MLB FOs, sometimes they are left with writers who write crap until they can find new talent.

Ben Clemens can only write so many articles.
 
Enscheff said:
As FG loses talented writers/analysts to MLB FOs, sometimes they are left with writers who write crap until they can find new talent.

Ben Clemens can only write so many articles.
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Baumaan was their recent big profile hire from the Ringer. This article is very Simmons like where the provocation (Hilliard) is besides the point (new shift rules will change what we think of certain players).
 
If i'm not mistaken, it looks like the Braves changed their position and are going to let Acuna play in the WBC


Justin Toscano
@JustinCToscano
Ronald Acuña Jr. will indeed play for Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic. The decision was made today. The Braves feel comfortable because they’ll monitor Acuña for a few weeks in camp before he joins his country. And at this point, he’s had no knee issues.
 
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