Official Offseason Thread

The Chosen One said:
AA has said he wants to see what our prospects have before he does anyrhing.

Seems to me he would still make a big trade, depending on the target. It just so happens that Donaldson and Keuchel filled immediate short gap needs without having to unload prospect capital.

Kind of premature to rule out AA doing any big trades based off one real offseason. He wants to examine what we have and go fron there. Seems very adaptable to the market conditions as evidenced by saving money to spend later on Keuchel.
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Last off-season hinged on Michael Brantley. We made an offer and he chose to go to Houston. Plan B was to bring back Muk and try to sign Keuchel or Kimbrel after they were no longer attached to a draft pick.
 
Another of those interesting "blockbuster" trades that AA has yet to pull the trigger on (that would be painful) that it's all but impossible to see happening is coming up with a package for Soler and Hunter Dozier. It would probably cost an arm and a leg, but would leave you with the financial flexibility to pursue relatively expensive SP and Grandal upgrades (assuming Julio is traded or shown the door). You could then go after Bumgarner without worrying about the pick you'd give up because you'd get it back when Donaldson signs elsewhere.

Acuna, Ozzie, Freeman, Soler, Grandal, Dozier, Inciarte, Swanson

Soroka, Bumgarner, Folty, Fried, young arms


You can argue that guys like Riley and Waters fit their timeline much better if they expect Witt to be ready in 2022 plus Singer, Lynch, Kowar, and Bubic in late 2020 or 2021. Kahlil Lee and Kyle Isbel fit that timeline as well, and if Spencer Torkelson somehow slipped to them at #4 in next June's draft they'd have a really nice nucleus all ready about the same time.
 
Signing Moose and Grandal are actually realistic scenarios to fix catcher and 3b both. If AA could pull of a trade for Soler to then wow.
 
Hudson2 said:
Signing Moose and Grandal are actually realistic scenarios to fix catcher and 3b both. If AA could pull of a trade for Soler to then wow.
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Going this route means you're going to pass on addressing the rotation while allowing Keuchel to walk. That's simply not likely going to happen. Letting Keuchel leave isn't that big a deal as long as you replace him with someone from the Bumgarner/Wheeler/Hamels/Odorizzi group, maybe even bringing Wood back or trade for Kluber. It's all but impossible to imagine AA would feel comfortable with a rotation of Soroka/Fried/Folty/Julio/young arms - that's just not good enough. Things might be different if he could honestly believe that Wright/Wilson/Anderson were ready to hold down those last two rotation spots for a contender in a playoff series, but they've just not taken that kind of step forward YET. Maybe they will, but if you're waiting for that to happen, there's very little reason to go out and spend big money bringing Grandal and Moose in as free-agents and ponying-up the level of prospect Kansas City would want for Soler.

Grandal will likely require an AAV around $20 million. Moose is likely going to require an AAV of at least $10 million. Soler is projected to get $11.2 million in arbitration. That's ~ $40 million spent while leaving TWO question marks in the rotation. Just don't see that happening. If you went that route you can argue that you're willing to let Markakis and Flowers go to save a little money, but you're not likely going to get the type of rotation upgrade you need over Julio for $8 million. Julio is at best your #5 SP. That's fine if he can defy the numbers for 30 more starts, but his bubble is going to finally burst soon, and 2020 is likely to be when that happens - unfortunately Wright, Wilson, and Anderson haven't yet shown that they're capable of handling 25+ starts apiece, and you'd be completely screwed if one of your top 3 missed significant time.

AA's likely going to have to go relatively cheap at one of those spots on offense if he doesn't trade Inciarte, and the rotation probably won't be where he does that after he was so open about the fact that one of his main goals is to have 4 arms he trusts to start playoff games. If you could get someone like Dozier included in the Soler deal, you could then use the $18 million you'd have spent on Moose, Markakis, and Flowers to go get a legitimate rotation piece.
 
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I like Wheeler but in general I'm not sure that I'd trust most of the starters we are discussing much more than Newcomb, or even Tomlin. Gotta also remember we have Touki, Weigel, Mueller, etc.

I think we pick up the options on all our upcoming contracts including Teheran. Then we start working on Donaldson to decide how much cash we have left. Not that Keuchel was an ace, but I think if we go after a pitcher of that level, someone that is at least on the level of our top 3 starters. I think AA would now be fine moving Riley in a trade if he can find someone that overvalues him. Inciarte is still valuable and we have two prospects coming to replace him. We have plenty of movable assets to get everything to fit into the budget.

Based on last off season, I don't think AA likes to risk getting stuck not getting most of what he needs. If he can't get a properly valued deal done with Donaldson after a week or two, he moves on to Grandal, etc.
 
Eyeman said:
I like Wheeler but in general I'm not sure that I'd trust most of the starters we are discussing much more than Newcomb, or even Tomlin. Gotta also remember we have Touki, Weigel, Mueller, etc.

I think we pick up the options on all our upcoming contracts including Teheran. Then we start working on Donaldson to decide how much cash we have left. Not that Keuchel was an ace, but I think if we go after a pitcher of that level, someone that is at least on the level of our top 3 starters. I think AA would now be fine moving Riley in a trade if he can find someone that overvalues him. Inciarte is still valuable and we have two prospects coming to replace him. We have plenty of movable assets to get everything to fit into the budget.

Based on last off season, I don't think AA likes to risk getting stuck not getting most of what he needs. If he can't get a properly valued deal done with Donaldson after a week or two, he moves on to Grandal, etc.
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If you pickup the options on JT, Flo, Nick, there's gonna be little to no room to add anything except maybe one big signing. 1-2 of those guys would need to go imo to have any kind of room to make some additions.
 
Eyeman said:
I like Wheeler but in general I'm not sure that I'd trust most of the starters we are discussing much more than Newcomb, or even Tomlin. Gotta also remember we have Touki, Weigel, Mueller, etc.

I think we pick up the options on all our upcoming contracts including Teheran. Then we start working on Donaldson to decide how much cash we have left. Not that Keuchel was an ace, but I think if we go after a pitcher of that level, someone that is at least on the level of our top 3 starters. I think AA would now be fine moving Riley in a trade if he can find someone that overvalues him. Inciarte is still valuable and we have two prospects coming to replace him. We have plenty of movable assets to get everything to fit into the budget.

Based on last off season, I don't think AA likes to risk getting stuck not getting most of what he needs. If he can't get a properly valued deal done with Donaldson after a week or two, he moves on to Grandal, etc.
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I don't think you'll find many people that will disagree with this statement.

The problem is that NONE of those names give anyone the "warm and fuzzies", and I'm not sure who feels any better about replacing Julio with Wright/Wilson/Anderson. Does anyone honestly expect Julio to continue outpitching his peripherals now that he's walking 4.5 guys every 9 innings? Argue that that's Newk-level control if you like, but would you seriously trust Newk to start a playoff game? I certainly don't imagine I ever would, and Newk's stuff is far better than Teheran's.

I don't think anyone here likes it, but if AA doesn't spend money on at least one rotation spot and he breaks camp with a Top 5 of Soroka/Fried/Folty followed by Julio and whichever young arm MIGHT step forward, everybody in baseball can realistically question his sanity when you compare that rotation to the Mutts and Washington assuming Strasburg returns. Keuchel was a bit of a disappointment, but can you imagine where this team would have been in 2019 if you'd have been running the in-house names we're discussing instead of him out there every 5 days?
 
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It's hard for me to see the Braves investing heavily in starting pitching in free agency, but I will say that is a pretty deep class.

The Bumgardner, Keuchel, Hamels, Kyle Gibson, Ryu tier is interesting to me. I could see how that might end up happening on a 1 or 2 year deal.

But there are a ton of decent veterans who should be ok on the backend of a rotation and I'm not sure they are going to have a huge market.
 
Tend to agree with above post, Rather think AA may try for shorter year trades, pitchers like Jonny Gray or Matt Boyd. Biggest problem with trades I see is those teams looking to trades may not want lesser prospects and otherwise Braves don't have too many viable trade chips.
 
Southcack77 said:
It's hard for me to see the Braves investing heavily in starting pitching in free agency, but I will say that is a pretty deep class.

The Bumgardner, Keuchel, Hamels, Kyle Gibson, Ryu tier is interesting to me. I could see how that might end up happening on a 1 or 2 year deal.

But there are a ton of decent veterans who should be ok on the backend of a rotation and I'm not sure they are going to have a huge market.
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Agreed. If Teheran is dropped there will be a list of comparable pitchers (or better) who don't have a QO attached. I expect to see AA shopping there for a guy on a 1 year deal...and it might end up being Teheran.

I also expect to see AA trying to swing a trade for this year's Paxton...whomever that may be...just like last off season.
 
I assume the Pirates will pick up Archer's contract. He could be worth a look as a buy low candidate. Will be interesting to see how that scenario works out with Pitt. Are they still in win now mode or are they going to tear it down again? They'd be better off tearing it down at this point imo, but there isn't a dominant team in the AL Central, so a case could be made for going for it.
 
It's going to be very hard to trade Betts. His single season of control puts his surplus value in the $20M-$30M range (assuming he is a 5-6 win player in 2020), and selling a superstar (even one under control for just 1 year) for a FV 50 prospect will be a very hard sell to Red Sox fans.

Something like Riley for Betts might make sense since dumb Sox fans can be sold Riley's early streak, but no way should the Braves cough up Waters (Pache is completely off the table for 1 year of anyone).

Other FV 50 guy are Wilson and Wright, and there's simply no way the Red Sox would deal away Betts for that. If they would, then AA should make it happen.
 
If we went after Betts then I’d be sending Inciarte back to clear some salary. I know it would leave us an outfielder down again but we have several options like Duval, Riley, Joyce that would be serviceable until Pache or Waters is ready. Of course that would mean by to Donaldson and bringing in say Moose.
 
Hudson2 said:
If we went after Betts then I’d be sending Inciarte back to clear some salary. I know it would leave us an outfielder down again but we have several options like Duval, Riley, Joyce that would be serviceable until Pache or Waters is ready. Of course that would mean by to Donaldson and bringing in say Moose.
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Why would the Sox trade Betts to unload salary, and then take on Ender's salary...when several teams will be tripping over themselves for the right to pay all of Betts' $28M?

Folks really need to follow logic all the way through when coming up with trade ideas...
 
Enscheff said:
Why would the Sox trade Betts to unload salary, and then take on Ender's salary...when several teams will be tripping over themselves for the right to pay all of Betts' $28M?

Folks really need to follow logic all the way through when coming up with trade ideas...
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Betts is set on going to FA and JD may opt out so why wouldn’t they want another outfielder to replace the one they are losing?
 
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