Official pre-Draft thread

[auyushu]

H

Even if the power doesn't come along you're looking at a guy who's projected to hit .300, get on base, play really good defense and is much more likely to his those projections than the HS guys who seem to be falling down boards.

The point here isn't to say Hasley=Senzel, but I do see some similarities is their late rise on boards and their hit/power reports coming out of college, pipelines grades on Senzel are basically identical to Haseleys

You are making vast comments about Haseley that have no connection to his scouting grades at all. All the reports I've seen on him have in the 50-55 hit grade ceiling, which is not a .300 hitter, that's more in the .280ish range. So basically you are looking at a guy who is likely to put up a high .700s OPS with an outside chance of low .800s with solid defense in CF. We already have two players like this in Inciarte and Pache, and our best hitting prospect Acuna can play above average CF defense as well. We need corner OF with power. We are 20th in runs scored despite being 6th in BA and 7th in OBP due to us being 21st in slugging. You can have a certain amount of guys like Inciarte, Albies, Flowers, Swanson, in the lineup, but you have to have some guys to clear the bases as well, particularly with the type of stadium we seem to have now.

There is just very little point to going floor over ceiling in the position we are in.

And Senzel has hardly proven any of his doubters wrong this year. He's been pretty average for a 22 year old in high A, doing exactly what people thought he might do, post a good BA, average walk rate, and doubles power. That will translate well at 3B if he can play plus defense though.

 

[Preacher]

You are making vast comments about Haseley that have no connection to his scouting grades at all. All the reports I've seen on him have in the 50-55 hit grade ceiling, which is not a .300 hitter, that's more in the .280ish range

What vast comments have I made? I've really only said he's got a plus hit tool and plus defense. I don't know where you're seeing 50 grades on his bat, just about everything I've seen says 55 and it sounds like if anything that's might be on the low side.

 

[Preacher]

Haseley is the high floor college guy, exactly what the Braves should be avoiding.

Why in the world would you avoid high floor players? High floor is a really good thing.

Now high floor / low ceiling? Sure avoid those guys, but that isn't Haseley. He doesn't have the Beck upside, but we aren't talking Tyler Neslony either.

I think my ever changing top-3 is Gore, Haseley, Lewis.

 

[Preacher]

I think we just view the 5th pick differently. You seem to be primarily concerned that we don't come out of a top 5 pick with nothing, so you lean toward the safer option. I am primarily concerned that we get big potential, particularly a potentially big bat, because it's really the only way we can add another one in the next 2-3 years. If it misses, it misses, but I want to give ourselves a chance of getting an impact bat.

That's fair, I still feel like Hasley can be a really good player on a good team, but you're obviously correct that if we swing for the fences and hit with Adell/Beck they have the tools to be superstars.

 

[CJ9]

Callis just said that if we take McKay at 5, he believes we make him a full-time right fielder. Now that's something I could get behind.

 

[Oklahomabrave]

Callis just said that if we take McKay at 5, he believes we make him a full-time right fielder. Now that's something I could get behind.

He also said right before that we could take Pratto at 5, which I don't love.

 

[CJ9]

He also said right before that we could take Pratto at 5, which I don't love.

Yikes, yeah I have no interest in that. I'm guessing he could probably move to the OF, but it seems like a lot of Pratto's value is that he's a good defensive 1B. That would be bad.

 

[smootness]

What vast comments have I made? I've really only said he's got a plus hit tool and plus defense. I don't know where you're seeing 50 grades on his bat, just about everything I've seen says 55 and it sounds like if anything that's might be on the low side.

But I haven't seen a plus grade (60) on either of them. And a 55 hit tool projects to something like .270, not .300. Albies is projected as a .300 guy...he has a 70 hit tool.

 

[clvclv]

High floor isn't a bad thing if he also has a decent ceiling. People act like a college player with a high floor is a bad thing.

All we've seen Hasley do lately is rise in the rankings, more and more reports have him as a plus defender with a plus hit tool.

Even if the power doesn't come along you're looking at a guy who's projected to hit .300, get on base, play really good defense and is much more likely to his those projections than the HS guys who seem to be falling down boards.

I'll say this, plenty of people - and I might have been one of them - were wary of Senzel in last years draft because they viewed him in a similar vein to Hasley 'a high floor college hitter without big power' and all Senzel did was rise up the draft boards, he went #2 and is now one of the best prospects in baseball.

The point here isn't to say Hasley=Senzel, but I do see some similarities is their late rise on boards and their hit/power reports coming out of college, pipelines grades on Senzel are basically identical to Haseleys

In other words, a cheap replacement for Markakis (with better defense) who should be ready when Markakis' deal is up.

Not the worst thing in the world by any stretch.

I'd still much rather draft for ceiling when taking a player in the top 5 (what other chances do you typically have to get homegrown "stars"). If you're a believer in the Acuna/Maitan/Jackson/Riley/Demeritte high ceiling crowd that we already have (and think you'll get at least 2 stars/plus players from the group), pairing a few guys who should be solid regulars at worst (Peterson, Albies, Hasley) certainly wouldn't hurt - especially when they'll be ready to step in when the big money starts coming off the books.

I just think those are the types of players you'd prefer to try to pick up via free-agency - there sure are a lot more of them, and it's far easier to stomach an "average performer" like Markakis that makes $11 million than a plus player like Kemp (using the term loosely, of course) that's chewing up a huge chunk of payroll.

 

[smootness]

Anyway, let's talk a bit about our 2nd pick. Anybody you guys like in that range? I'm narrowing in on two guys, which is why I really hope we're able to add a competitive balance pick (looking at you, Twins and Brewers). Those two are Drew Waters and Brent Rooker.

Waters is a switch hitter with great exit velocity, plus speed, plus defense, and a plus arm. I'm curious as to why he's not ranked higher, and I think there's a pretty good chance he's gone by 41, but I would love to grab him.

Rooker's stock seems to be suppressed by the fact that he's 22 and because he plays 1B. I get the age thing, but he is not having a monster season because he's older than everybody else, he's having a monster season because his swing is that good. And he is a very good athlete, so while his defense in RF was not great and Mississippi State had better, I think he could easily learn to play good D in LF at the very least. And again, the bat is fully legit. Easily the best hitter in college baseball.

 

[clvclv]

Anyway, let's talk a bit about our 2nd pick. Anybody you guys like in that range? I'm narrowing in on two guys, which is why I really hope we're able to add a competitive balance pick (looking at you, Twins and Brewers). Those two are Drew Waters and Brent Rooker.

Waters is a switch hitter with great exit velocity, plus speed, plus defense, and a plus arm. I'm curious as to why he's not ranked higher, and I think there's a pretty good chance he's gone by 41, but I would love to grab him.

Rooker's stock seems to be suppressed by the fact that he's 22 and because he plays 1B. I get the age thing, but he is not having a monster season because he's older than everybody else, he's having a monster season because his swing is that good. And he is a very good athlete, so while his defense in RF was not great and Mississippi State had better, I think he could easily learn to play good D in LF at the very least. And again, the bat is fully legit. Easily the best hitter in college baseball.

Vientos and Tristan Beck are the obvious ones for me. Also eyeing C. J. Van Eyk, Ben Ramirez, and Je'Von Ward in the later rounds (4-6).

 

[smootness]

Vientos and Tristan Beck are the obvious ones for me. Also eyeing C. J. Van Eyk, Ben Ramirez, and Je'Von Ward in the later rounds (4-6).

I much prefer Waters and several others to Vientos. His stock has fallen, and I've seen terrible grades on his running, which is not a good thing for a HS IF.

I would be ok with Beck but would still prefer Waters or Rooker.

 

[CJ9]

I like Beck a lot but wonder if we could get him at 41 without going cheap at 5.

 

[nsacpi]

Callis just said that if we take McKay at 5, he believes we make him a full-time right fielder. Now that's something I could get behind.

Agreed. If he falls to the fifth pick, we have to give him serious consideration.

 

[smootness]

Agreed. If he falls to the fifth pick, we have to give him serious consideration.

I just don't see how he's worth the 5th pick as a hitter. He has well below-average speed, so attempting to make him an OF of any kind seems quite a stretch. He obviously would have a good arm, but it still wouldn't be at the top of the chart. And he is a good hitter with good plate discipline but doesn't have a ton of power. So we would be taking a 1B and attempting to make him an OF...but even as an OF, he wouldn't likely have an impact bat and offers you nothing on the base paths. And you're taking him at 5?

It seems like he was sitting at the top of draft boards out of default and because he had good potential as both a pitcher and hitter...and he's just stayed up there, despite the fact that there are clearly better options. Haseley would be a much better pick than McKay, and I don't really want Haseley.

 

[clvclv]

I much prefer Waters and several others to Vientos. His stock has fallen, and I've seen terrible grades on his running, which is not a good thing for a HS IF.

I would be ok with Beck but would still prefer Waters or Rooker.

I could get on board with Waters (but don't think he'll be there that late), but think that if we were going to go there that we'd need to take the best arm available at #5 (or pure ceiling like Beck) if you were looking at either of them in the 2nd.

Also like the things I've seen about Luis Campusano if he somehow slid to us there.

 

[nsacpi]

I just don't see how he's worth the 5th pick as a hitter. He has well below-average speed, so attempting to make him an OF of any kind seems quite a stretch. He obviously would have a good arm, but it still wouldn't be at the top of the chart. And he is a good hitter with good plate discipline but doesn't have a ton of power. So we would be taking a 1B and attempting to make him an OF...but even as an OF, he wouldn't likely have an impact bat and offers you nothing on the base paths. And you're taking him at 5?

It seems like he was sitting at the top of draft boards out of default and because he had good potential as both a pitcher and hitter...and he's just stayed up there, despite the fact that there are clearly better options. Haseley would be a much better pick than McKay, and I don't really want Haseley.

Rich man's Piscotty.

 

[smootness]

I could get on board with Waters (but don't think he'll be there that late), but think that if we were going to go there that we'd need to take the best arm available at #5 (or pure ceiling like Beck) if you were looking at either of them in the 2nd.

Also like the things I've seen about Luis Campusano if he somehow slid to us there.

Campusano is a guy you might be able to get in round 3. And I definitely don't buy into the thought that we have to end up with at least one pitcher out of our top 2 picks. We've focused on pitching almost entirely at the top of the last 2 drafts, I'm totally fine if we go hitting in this draft, and I like the hitters available more than the pitchers.

 

[Southcack77]

I like Beck a lot but wonder if we could get him at 41 without going cheap at 5.

Again, there are a lot of teams in this draft picking high that also have comp picks. It's going to be pretty hard for any very high ceiling guy to fall all the way to the Braves pick at 41.

 

[CJ9]

Again, there are a lot of teams in this draft picking high that also have comp picks. It's going to be pretty hard for any very high ceiling guy to fall all the way to the Braves pick at 41.

Again, we are talking about Tristian Beck -- not Austin.