Are you frigging serious? Did you even read this article???
He used very limited data range, using data from a "rough location" outline, and oh by way, this information is from over 20 years ago.... could this be any more vague???
GTFO with that BS
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Olivera traded for Kemp
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
Are you frigging serious? Did you even read this article???
He used very limited data range, using data from a "rough location" outline, and oh by way, this information is from over 20 years ago.... could this be any more vague???
GTFO with that BS
Sure thing, here's the first one I could find from BP:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21215
It's a pay site, and I'm sure you don't have a subscription to read about the analytics of baseball (if you did we wouldn't having this discussion), so here's the money quote:
"Surely enough, there was a significant effect of having a defensive whiz for a teammate. A negative one."
Now I'm quite positive this won't sway you in any way, but there it is.
Time for you to get defensive and call me a jerk or say you have too much a life to read stuff like this?
I would wonder how useful information from the mid-90s would be in determining the effect of something happening now, particularly when we consider how prevalent shifts are today. If you're expecting someone to hit the ball to LF, you're more likely to make adjustments than you would in 1993. Being able to play the odds of a hit toward Kemp would seemingly make having a strong defensive CF next to him a good way to mitigate his defensive limitations.
For someone being so cavalier about calling out posters as not being interested in research, you are providing a sample with a poor representation of the variables in the discussion you're in.
Tell me where the Inside Edge stats are wrong.
Im not saying those stats are wrong, I'm saying you are wrong by claiming his defense is knocked because he didn't get to 2 balls over the course of 4 months. You aren't understanding probabilities and basic statistics.
Routine (90-100); he has made plays on 144/144....nothing substantial here.
Likely (60-90), he has made plays on 14 of 19 balls....74% of the balls. You could probably safely say, he's about average for this
Even (40-60), he has made plays on 4 of 11 balls. He should have made the play on between 4.5 and 6.5 balls so below average here.
Unlikely (10-40), he has made 0 plays on 4 attempts. Statistically, he should have made a play on at least a ball, but the sample in way too small.
Remote (1-10). He made 0 plays on 14 attempts. Again, small sample, but probability says he probably should have made a play.
Of course, these are over a small sample and he has aggregate numbers for the past 5 years as well showing his limitations.
There are also other measures for range and arm and inability to prevent a double, etc. Matt Kemp doesn't have bad defensive statistics bc of his inability to catch "2 balls he should have caught."
Do I? I did my research on how Andruw effected the defensive ratings of others over the years. It's something I've stated many times. What have you done? If these studies about OF defense exist you should easily be able to find them for me.
Surhoff got worse playing next to Andruw. Guess it was Andruw's fault, not aging.
Jordan was great in STL and remained great in ATL. Guess Andruw didn't want to help him.
Reggie Sanders was OK in ATL, and then great in SF a couple years later. Guess the CFer in SF was amazing!
Francoeur was amazing next to Andruw in 2005, then decent in 2006, then amazing again in 2007. All next to Andruw. Guess he didn't realize Andruw was next to him in 2006?
So did Andruw negatively effect all those guys, or decide not to shade towards them for some reason for some periods of time? Or is it more likely noise since defensive metrics don't stabilize for 2-3 years?
Your response: the stats I posted don't matter or are less applicable than yours for some reason.
Millwood1Hitter
Anytime Now Frankie...
FO Logic: "Don't question us, he's a centerfielder, he played that before with the Dodgers. He's played it before, and he played it well, gold glove caliber defense in center, so expect that in left which is much easier."
And we don't have another player like him. Can't have a lineup full, but it's good to have a guy or two to clear the bags, even if they swing and miss.
This I completely agree with. I just think they need a base cleaner that isn't quite so bad at everything else.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Im not saying those stats are wrong, I'm saying you are wrong by claiming his defense is knocked because he didn't get to 2 balls over the course of 4 months. You aren't understanding probabilities and basic statistics.
Routine (90-100); he has made plays on 144/144....nothing substantial here.
Likely (60-90), he has made plays on 14 of 19 balls....74% of the balls. You could probably safely say, he's about average for this
Even (40-60), he has made plays on 4 of 11 balls. He should have made the play on between 4.5 and 6.5 balls so below average here.
Unlikely (10-40), he has made 0 plays on 4 attempts. Statistically, he should have made a play on at least a ball, but the sample in way too small.
Remote (1-10). He made 0 plays on 14 attempts. Again, small sample, but probability says he probably should have made a play.
Of course, these are over a small sample and he has aggregate numbers for the past 5 years as well showing his limitations.
There are also other measures for range and arm and inability to prevent a double, etc. Matt Kemp doesn't have bad defensive statistics bc of his inability to catch "2 balls he should have caught."
So, in reading this, by your reckoning he should have caught a minimum of 2.5 balls that he didn't catch. Is range not bound up into the idea of balls that he should have caught? As for arm, he's in left field, so..
I'm certainly not arguing that Kemp is a good defender, or even a good player. But I do think defensive metrics carry too much weight when determining player value. If Kemp hits 30 HR for the Braves, the presence of his power is much more likely to help the Braves win more games than the deficiency of his defense is going to lose them games, especially if he is designated for defensive replacement in late innings when the Braves are ahead.
Surhoff got worse playing next to Andruw. Guess it was Andruw's fault, not aging.
Jordan was great in STL and remained great in ATL. Guess Andruw didn't want to help him.
Reggie Sanders was OK in ATL, and then great in SF a couple years later. Guess the CFer in SF was amazing!
Francoeur was amazing next to Andruw in 2005, then decent in 2006, then amazing again in 2007. All next to Andruw. Guess he didn't realize Andruw was next to him in 2006?
So did Andruw negatively effect all those guys, or decide not to shade towards them for some reason for some periods of time? Or is it more likely noise since defensive metrics don't stabilize for 2-3 years?
Your response: the stats I posted don't matter or are less applicable than yours for some reason.
Regarding Francoeur I think you will find something interesting. The bulk of his defensive value those days was his arm. Which is no surprise to anyone. And not something a centerfielder will be able to help you with. But range? That is something. And Jeff's UZR range runs saved from 05-07 with Andruw was 7.7, 4.0, and 3.2 In 2008 when Andruw had left? -5.5 and it's been negative ever since.
The others are harder to break down due to not having the data. But Jordan did go from being a positive defender to a negative defender when going to LA. Surhoff was playing great OF defense before he got hurt (while showing excellent range in foul territory because of andruw) in his 2nd year here.
So, in reading this, by your reckoning he should have caught a minimum of 2.5 balls that he didn't catch. Is range not bound up into the idea of balls that he should have caught? As for arm, he's in left field, so..
I'm certainly not arguing that Kemp is a good defender, or even a good player. But I do think defensive metrics carry too much weight when determining player value. If Kemp hits 30 HR for the Braves, the presence of his power is much more likely to help the Braves win more games than the deficiency of his defense is going to lose them games, especially if he is designated for defensive replacement in late innings when the Braves are ahead.
Right, that's 2.5 balls just to get to 0. Taking the worst case scenario (which you left out to help illustrate your point), that's 4.5 balls he should have caught...to get to 0. Who wants to look up how many runs 4.5 dropped fly balls costs a team on average?
Then factor in the singles he played in doubles, and the times runners took extra bases on his arm.
Then realize this is the best he has played defensively in 3 years. Do you think he is likely to get better at age 32+, or worse?
Regarding Francoeur I think you will find something interesting. The bulk of his defensive value those days was his arm. Which is no surprise to anyone. And not something a centerfielder will be able to help you with. But range? That is something. And Jeff's UZR range runs saved from 05-07 with Andruw was 7.7, 4.0, and 3.2 In 2008 when Andruw had left? -5.5 and it's been negative ever since.
The others are harder to break down due to not having the data. But Jordan did go from being a positive defender to a negative defender when going to LA. Surhoff was playing great OF defense before he got hurt (while showing excellent range in foul territory because of andruw) in his 2nd year here.
So what you're saying is....
My data isn't as applicable as your data, exactly as I predicted you would say. There are other factors that explain why my examples had defensive fluctuations, but your examples were due to playing next to an elite CFer. And since your examples fit your narative, Kemp will be better next to Inciarte...obviously!
Got it. Great analysis!
So, in reading this, by your reckoning he should have caught a minimum of 2.5 balls that he didn't catch. Is range not bound up into the idea of balls that he should have caught? As for arm, he's in left field, so..
I'm certainly not arguing that Kemp is a good defender, or even a good player. But I do think defensive metrics carry too much weight when determining player value. If Kemp hits 30 HR for the Braves, the presence of his power is much more likely to help the Braves win more games than the deficiency of his defense is going to lose them games, especially if he is designated for defensive replacement in late innings when the Braves are ahead.
It would be roughly 4.5-5 based on about 92 games worth of data.
Arm is still worthwhile in LF.
Id be fine with 30 homers if it came with a respectable OBP.
So, in reading this, by your reckoning he should have caught a minimum of 2.5 balls that he didn't catch. Is range not bound up into the idea of balls that he should have caught? As for arm, he's in left field, so..
I'm certainly not arguing that Kemp is a good defender, or even a good player. But I do think defensive metrics carry too much weight when determining player value. If Kemp hits 30 HR for the Braves, the presence of his power is much more likely to help the Braves win more games than the deficiency of his defense is going to lose them games, especially if he is designated for defensive replacement in late innings when the Braves are ahead.
The idea of turning a single into doubles (bad) and turning doubles into singles (good) is a real thing. And something not taken into account in inside egde but shows up in DRS and UZR. As far as arm goes. Yeah it's LF but it does matter. Obviously those in left with stronger arms should be more valuble than those with weaker arms. It's also the worst part of defense that's predictable. Kemp really hurt his UZR rating last year with his arm (poor throws? no idea) but that hasn't been a problem at any other point in his career and isn't this year either.
So what you're saying is....
My data isn't as applicable as your data, exactly as I predicted you would say. There are other factors that explain why my examples had defensive fluctuations, but your examples were due to playing next to an elite CFer. And since your examples fit your narative, Kemp will be better next to Inciarte...obviously!
Got it. Great analysis!
In regards to Francoeur: Do you not agree that his overall rating spiked 2 years due to making great use of his arm and that his actual range rating dropped when Andruw left?
Right, that's 2.5 balls just to get to 0. Taking the worst case scenario (which you left out to help illustrate your point), that's 4.5 balls he should have caught...to get to 0. Who wants to look up how many runs 4.5 dropped fly balls costs a team on average?
Then factor in the singles he played in doubles, and the times runners took extra bases on his arm.
Then realize this is the best he has played defensively in 3 years. Do you think he is likely to get better at age 32+, or worse?
fangraphs has 6 runs. 15 runs last year.
His left field numbers have been pretty bad as well, but hopefully just small sample noise.
In regards to Francoeur: Do you not agree that his overall rating spiked 2 years due to making great use of his arm and that his actual range rating dropped when Andruw left?
It is a waste of time to argue the impact of Andruw Jones when we are talking about Ender Inciarte and Matt Kemp. There are studies that have said it doesnt matter; you dont believe it. The impact Inciarte has is nothing like the theoretical impact Andruw had. Hell, Kevin Pillar can't make Joey Bats into a decent defender.
It is a waste of time to argue the impact of Andruw Jones when we are talking about Ender Inciarte and Matt Kemp. There are studies that have said it doesnt matter; you dont believe it. The impact Inciarte has is nothing like the theoretical impact Andruw had. Hell, Kevin Pillar can't make Joey Bats into a decent defender.
Where are these studies for the outfield? I've yet to see them.
In regards to Francoeur: Do you not agree that his overall rating spiked 2 years due to making great use of his arm and that his actual range rating dropped when Andruw left?
I think that I found as many examples as I could in 15 minutes and don't need to look any further into it than you did with Sheff and Drew.
The mere fact I could easily find examples that contradicted your assertion is enough to prove no correlation. I could go through every roster of every team with elite defenders and find many more examples where guys got better and worse. That's the definition of "no correlation".
The point is elite defenders don't make the players next to them better. Your "analysis" of 2 players next to Andruw Jones doesn't prove anything. My "analysis" of 4 players next to Andruw doesn't prove anything other than "no correlation".
I'm sorry if you don't understand the statistical methods behind determining whether or not one event correlates with another event. I could sit here and explain it to you, but like I said, no amount of data is going to convince someone with a preconceived notion that they are wrong. You're wrong, you've dug your heals in, and you won't be convinced otherwise.
I think that I found as many examples as I could in 15 minutes and don't need to look any further into it than you did with Sheff and Drew.
The mere fact I could easily find examples that contradicted your assertion is enough to prove no correlation. I could go through every roster of every team with elite defenders and find many more examples where guys got better and worse. That's the definition of "no correlation".
The point is elite defenders don't make the players next to them better. Your "analysis" of 2 players next to Andruw Jones doesn't prove anything. My "analysis" of 4 players next to Andruw doesn't prove anything other than "no correlation".
I'm sorry if you don't understand the statistical methods behind determining whether or not one event correlates with another event. I could sit here and explain it to you, but like I said, no amount of data is going to convince someone with a preconceived notion that they are wrong. You're wrong, you've dug your heals in, and you won't be convinced otherwise.
You found 3 examples. Two of which were routinely good defenders regardless.
I think that I found as many examples as I could in 15 minutes and don't need to look any further into it than you did with Sheff and Drew.
The mere fact I could easily find examples that contradicted your assertion is enough to prove no correlation. I could go through every roster of every team with elite defenders and find many more examples where guys got better and worse. That's the definition of "no correlation".
The point is elite defenders don't make the players next to them better. Your "analysis" of 2 players next to Andruw Jones doesn't prove anything. My "analysis" of 4 players next to Andruw doesn't prove anything other than "no correlation".
I'm sorry if you don't understand the statistical methods behind determining whether or not one event correlates with another event. I could sit here and explain it to you, but like I said, no amount of data is going to convince someone with a preconceived notion that they are wrong. You're wrong, you've dug your heals in, and you won't be convinced otherwise.
Your 4 players where in one example you didn't even know why the things that happened were happening? Makes sense.
You found 3 examples. Two of which were routinely good defenders regardless.
See? No idea what "no correlation" means. No desire to know. All you want to do is argue, so you came up with that response.
And I used 4 examples, some who didn't get better OR worse next to Andruw. The definition of "no correlation".