One More Punt???

[clvclv]

What the KC rebuild proves to me is that if you remove time as a variable in your equation- e.g., "we want to be competitive 2017," you stand a far better chance of success. Give me a half-decade of picking at the top and trading every promising player for three younger promising players, I can build you a winner. It just takes time.

You can remove time as a variable if you've been as irrelevant as the Royals had been for as long as they had. Same thing with the Pirates and Cubs.

The younger generation of Braves "fans" have been ready to jump off the ledge when the team hasn't made the playoffs recently, and many of them (including quite a few posters here) swore they'd never watch the team play again the minute the Heyward trade was announced.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

bad analogy..

Wisler/Folty might be able to step up and be much better this coming year. they have the talent. ManBan will have an opportunity to prove quality as well. We have pitching that has potential. Just saying you don't know who or how many will realize that potential.

Here's this issue with the pitching as I see it: The upside is not great (certainly not Mets great), the downside could be catastrophic, and the likelihood is jus meh...

All the real "high end" pitching is 3-4 years away at least residing with Allard, Touki and maybe Soroka and Fried.

ManBan looks like he is injury prone for his career and will end up in relief.

Folty looks like a million dollar arm with one dollar control, meaning it comes and goes. With his clot situation and the way the winds were blowing to end the season he also looks to be headed for relief.

Wisler is the one guy who looks like he could develop and become a very solid 3 and maybe even a passable two but I don't see ACE or even "rotation lead" anywhere.

Weber and Williams are dime a dozen guys who have probably had their 15 minutes.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

You can remove time as a variable if you've been as irrelevant as the Royals had been for as long as they had. Same thing with the Pirates and Cubs.

The younger generation of Braves "fans" have been ready to jump off the ledge when the team hasn't made the playoffs recently, and many of them (including quite a few posters here) swore they'd never watch the team play again the minute the Heyward trade was announced.

I agree and this is why I want to continue the churn because done right it is the quickest turn around for SUSTAINED competitiveness.

 

[cajunrevenge]

I agree that the Cubs and Astros all out rebuild is the way to do rebuilding but there are other factors. Being a horrible team for 5+ years can have a very negative impact on the fan base. Especially the kids. I dont know about most of you but I got hooked as a kid and if the Braves were turrible during that time I dont know that I would be a baseball fan let alone a Braves fan. I have seen this first hand living in Houston. No one gives a **** about the Astros anymore even after making the playoffs.

 

[clvclv]

I agree that the Cubs and Astros all out rebuild is the way to do rebuilding but there are other factors. Being a horrible team for 5+ years can have a very negative impact on the fan base. Especially the kids. I dont know about most of you but I got hooked as a kid and if the Braves were turrible during that time I dont know that I would be a baseball fan let alone a Braves fan. I have seen this first hand living in Houston. No one gives a **** about the Astros anymore even after making the playoffs.

This was why I worded the original question the way I did. Many of us have been around long enough to know that the fairweather fans will be back the day the shiny new park opens or the first big free-agent signing happens - most of them aren't familiar enough with the entire organization and the sad state it was in prior to beginning the reboot. They jumped ship when Heyward and Upton were shipped off, but will come back in droves when there's a Greinke/Price type signing - pointing to that as a sign that "we're back" without realizing how much of the turnaround is directly related to the one bad season in 2015.

My contention all along has been that - like them or not - it's awfully tough for anyone to argue that what The Johns have accomplished in less than 12 months is awfully impressive. Given that, I'd be much more willing to suffer one more really bad season while they dealt away the controllable pieces that have tons more value than Heyward and J-Up had in an effort to shave 4-5 years off that complete overhaul timeline it took in Houston, Chicago, and Pittsburgh - those extended down cycles are what ultimately drive the fairweather fans away for good (like you mention it did down there).

If those fans aren't coming out next summer to watch anyway, and they do show up like they always have when a team opens a new park - I could easily see the team becoming a legitimate contender by 2018 with all the MLB-ready pieces you could add IF you cleaned house. *ell, a Price or Greinke signing would likely drive attendance up at least once every five days next season.

Assuming they chose to go that route, you'd get some fans back out in 2016 at least on the days the new "toy" pitched, bunches of them back out to see the new stadium in 2017, and they'd keep coming back in 2018 because you'd have something really fun to watch.

 

[Coredor]

We are very unlikely to contend next year, and I think respectability would be the most we could hope for. I don't see a top team in 2017 either although if we make all the right moves we could make a run to get into the playoffs. If someone wants to make us an offer for some guys who at their peak now then I'd listen. However I'd want a king's ransom for guys like Freeman, Miller, Teheran, or Simmons. They should have a lot left in the tank, and we already have control of a fair number of those years. It's very different from last year when we had to get something for Heyward and Upton because we probably weren't going to be able to keep them.



We need long windows if we make any big trades. We might be decent in 2017, but it will take longer to fully rebuild. Personally I'd endue a couple of rough years if there was something big at the end of it. Honestly to me the difference between 65 and 80 wins doesn't mean a whole lot to me as a fan.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

You can remove time as a variable if you've been as irrelevant as the Royals had been for as long as they had. Same thing with the Pirates and Cubs.

The younger generation of Braves "fans" have been ready to jump off the ledge when the team hasn't made the playoffs recently, and many of them (including quite a few posters here) swore they'd never watch the team play again the minute the Heyward trade was announced.

Meh. **** em. And go ahead and deal Freeman and Simmons. Simmons does jack **** for us OBPing .300 and saving some runs in the field. And Have you seen the back of Freeman's contract? Oy, vey.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

We are very unlikely to contend next year, and I think respectability would be the most we could hope for. I don't see a top team in 2017 either although if we make all the right moves we could make a run to get into the playoffs. If someone wants to make us an offer for some guys who at their peak now then I'd listen. However I'd want a king's ransom for guys like Freeman, Miller, Teheran, or Simmons. They should have a lot left in the tank, and we already have control of a fair number of those years. It's very different from last year when we had to get something for Heyward and Upton because we probably weren't going to be able to keep them.

We need long windows if we make any big trades. We might be decent in 2017, but it will take longer to fully rebuild. Personally I'd endue a couple of rough years if there was something big at the end of it. Honestly to me the difference between 65 and 80 wins doesn't mean a whole lot to me as a fan.

Yep. Keep churning. Suck harder. I can watch the Mariners in the meantime, or cut the lawn.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

We are very unlikely to contend next year, and I think respectability would be the most we could hope for. I don't see a top team in 2017 either although if we make all the right moves we could make a run to get into the playoffs. If someone wants to make us an offer for some guys who at their peak now then I'd listen. However I'd want a king's ransom for guys like Freeman, Miller, Teheran, or Simmons. They should have a lot left in the tank, and we already have control of a fair number of those years. It's very different from last year when we had to get something for Heyward and Upton because we probably weren't going to be able to keep them.

We need long windows if we make any big trades. We might be decent in 2017, but it will take longer to fully rebuild. Personally I'd endue a couple of rough years if there was something big at the end of it. Honestly to me the difference between 65 and 80 wins doesn't mean a whole lot to me as a fan.

That's the thing. I am not satisfied with mere respectability (but I don't fear lack of respectability as long as there is a good reason for it). And I don't believe in Macroscopic chance as an overriding factor in being good. The whole get some players and hope strategy doesn't work for me UNLESS there is some plan behind it that goes beyond hoping the stars align at the right time. Grabbing some aging but decent players in effort to create an illusion designed to attract the unwashed (in terms of baseball) is just inefficiency and delays or outright kills an effective rebuild.

As for the "kings ransom" comment, I certainly don't trade any of them unless you get what you want in exchange. You don't HAVE to trade any of them. However, I think it would be a bad mistake to try to win the world series of trades as an all or nothing proposition. I think the Phillies fell victim to that and ended up holding some of their players way too long and it cost them, especially with Cliff Lee, but they got less than they should have on several other trades. To me, the key is getting useful value in return that is either guaranteed or at least good bets. You need quantity and quality.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

We are very unlikely to contend next year, and I think respectability would be the most we could hope for. I don't see a top team in 2017 either although if we make all the right moves we could make a run to get into the playoffs. If someone wants to make us an offer for some guys who at their peak now then I'd listen. However I'd want a king's ransom for guys like Freeman, Miller, Teheran, or Simmons. They should have a lot left in the tank, and we already have control of a fair number of those years. It's very different from last year when we had to get something for Heyward and Upton because we probably weren't going to be able to keep them.

We need long windows if we make any big trades. We might be decent in 2017, but it will take longer to fully rebuild. Personally I'd endue a couple of rough years if there was something big at the end of it. Honestly to me the difference between 65 and 80 wins doesn't mean a whole lot to me as a fan.

most fans are not like you and I however. And the FO often caters to them instead of us who would spend our dollars if we see a product being developed. Most fans would rather be 81- 81 third in the division over 64-98 and 4th in the division. And I guess I would too.. but I would rather have the worse record and see plan and future trying to be developed over an average record and a team with no purpose.. There have been a lot of Braves teams the last decade that would make the playoffs but were never really a contender.

 

[50PoundHead]

W/L doesn't mean that much to me during a rebuild, but I can't stand sloppy baseball. To me, the "how" one is winning or losing is important. The thing that ticked me off about last season is that our bullpen was full of AAAA (if that) guys that sapped the life out of the team and contributed to a stretch of the sloppiest Braves' baseball I've seen since the 1980s. I can tolerate losing because the talent hasn't developed or there are some obvious shortcomings at a number of positions. But I can't stand losing because of stupidity.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

W/L doesn't mean that much to me during a rebuild, but I can't stand sloppy baseball. To me, the "how" one is winning or losing is important. The thing that ticked me off about last season is that our bullpen was full of AAAA (if that) guys that sapped the life out of the team and contributed to a stretch of the sloppiest Braves' baseball I've seen since the 1980s. I can tolerate losing because the talent hasn't developed or there are some obvious shortcomings at a number of positions. But I can't stand losing because of stupidity.

 

[Russ2dollas]

No argument here - I'm definitely not in favor of "shopping" any of them actively. But there are plenty of ways to entertain offers without doing that. Nobody (and I mean NOBODY) saw Beane dealing Donaldson before the paperwork had already been approved by the Commissioner's Office last winter. The point is, Coppy or Hart could quietly let Dombrowski or Cashman or Theo and Jed know that these guys are available TO THEM only if they'll part with what they want in return. There's no doubt in my mind that Beane told AA know that if ANY news that Donaldson surfaced ANYWHERE before the deal was done that he wouldn't be available.

I'm with this guy.

I don't want Simmons, FF, or Tehran to go. But if someone gives us a haul we need to do it. IMO it would need to be headlined buy guys that are ready to play this year or next. I don't want a handful of A ball lottery tickets.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

W/L doesn't mean that much to me during a rebuild, but I can't stand sloppy baseball. To me, the "how" one is winning or losing is important. The thing that ticked me off about last season is that our bullpen was full of AAAA (if that) guys that sapped the life out of the team and contributed to a stretch of the sloppiest Braves' baseball I've seen since the 1980s. I can tolerate losing because the talent hasn't developed or there are some obvious shortcomings at a number of positions. But I can't stand losing because of stupidity.

You are right. BUT, that's on the manager and to a certain extent on the Veteran Clubhouse Presence guys who were brought in specifically to show the young guys the way. They didn't get it done. But, the failure of the manager and the veterans to encourage and enforce fundamental baseball should not impact in any way the plan forward. If anything it should call into question the value of the manager and the value of having the Veteran Presences that you overpay to be there.

Thought experiment: How many more games do the Braves lose if they DON'T have AJ, Markakis and Gomes on the team? Do the wins that they brought mean anything? Would the Braves have been better off using the $11M from Markakis and the $3M from Gomes on a different player or players? Would the young pitching be more developed had a better defensive catcher, but lesser offensive catcher, been in place instead of AJ? Would the team as a whole be better with a different manager, one who is on board with the concepts of molding young players into a team and not abusing the few trusted veterans in effort to chase every meaningless win in a meaningless season?

 

[clvclv]

You are right. BUT, that's on the manager and to a certain extent on the Veteran Clubhouse Presence guys who were brought in specifically to show the young guys the way. They didn't get it done. But, the failure of the manager and the veterans to encourage and enforce fundamental baseball should not impact in any way the plan forward. If anything it should call into question the value of the manager and the value of having the Veteran Presences that you overpay to be there.

Thought experiment: How many more games do the Braves lose if they DON'T have AJ, Markakis and Gomes on the team? Do the wins that they brought mean anything? Would the Braves have been better off using the $11M from Markakis and the $3M from Gomes on a different player or players? Would the young pitching be more developed had a better defensive catcher, but lesser offensive catcher, been in place instead of AJ? Would the team as a whole be better with a different manager, one who is on board with the concepts of molding young players into a team and not abusing the few trusted veterans in effort to chase every meaningless win in a meaningless season?

The problem with this line of thought (just my opinion based on what we've often heard when these types of players are brought in) is that they're not brought in to specifically help in the win-loss department. When Wren went out and got Billy Wagner, he wasn't concerned whether his numbers were reflected in the number of wins - it just so happened that he did help in that department. Wagner was brought in for one reason - to show Kimbrel what it takes during camp, on off days, on days he's not used, at times he hasn't seen action for 4-6 days to remain sharp and ready when he WAS needed. The same thing was a big part of the reason you bring in Grilli and Johnson for the most recent group of pen arms. KJ and Gomes were brought in to help the hitters understand the extra preparation it takes to be helpful when you're not an everyday player so that you might be able to help as a pinch-hitter or short-term injury replacement for one of the regulars. A. J. wasn't brought in to produce - it just worked out that way. He was brought in to help Bethancourt understand the important details of how to run Pitchers' meetings, how to call games, when to go out and talk to Pitchers to calm them down, help him understand how important it is to understand their mechanics so he might be able to help them make adjustments in the middle of an inning without McDowell having to come out, etc..

The only one of the veterans that was brought in for 2015 that was expected to produce in any form was Markakis - the other guys were brought in to be teachers or tutors in the hope that the young players might gain some knowledge from a voice that they identified more with since they didn't have the title of Manager or Coach tied to their names. I think most organizations are big believers in those types of guys when they have young teams. The problem with last year's team is that it was taking the kids longer than expected to make those adjustments and those veterans were performing better than expected and HAD to be played or the record would've wound up much worse than it did. I shudder to imagine what the record might've been without KJ and A. J.'s production and without Grilli and Johnson in the pen before the deadline when they were the ONLY guys in the pen that could get anyone out. The lack of offense was obvious, but how much worse might it have been with Eury Perez in CF, Todd Cunningham in RF, and Terdoslavich in LF all year?

I was one of Fredi's biggest haters when it came to playing A. J. instead of giving Bethancourt regular ABs and experience handling the staff, but wasn't there to see what was happening during workouts/bullpen sessions on throw days/during Pitchers' meetings. Maybe he really just wasn't learning anything from watching A. J. do those things. If so, I completely understand why he wasn't being played. Same thing with the other guys - if the Coaches and veterans keep trying to explain to you why you're struggling (Peterson's struggles against LHPs/Garcia's defensive struggles, the inability of the young SPs and RPs to throw strikes somewhere that weren't belt high over the center of the plate), you have little choice but to play somebody else until you find someone that can do those things.

 

[50PoundHead]

The problem with this line of thought (just my opinion based on what we've often heard when these types of players are brought in) is that they're not brought in to specifically help in the win-loss department. When Wren went out and got Billy Wagner, he wasn't concerned whether his numbers were reflected in the number of wins - it just so happened that he did help in that department. Wagner was brought in for one reason - to show Kimbrel what it takes during camp, on off days, on days he's not used, at times he hasn't seen action for 4-6 days to remain sharp and ready when he WAS needed. The same thing was a big part of the reason you bring in Grilli and Johnson for the most recent group of pen arms. KJ and Gomes were brought in to help the hitters understand the extra preparation it takes to be helpful when you're not an everyday player so that you might be able to help as a pinch-hitter or short-term injury replacement for one of the regulars. A. J. wasn't brought in to produce - it just worked out that way. He was brought in to help Bethancourt understand the important details of how to run Pitchers' meetings, how to call games, when to go out and talk to Pitchers to calm them down, help him understand how important it is to understand their mechanics so he might be able to help them make adjustments in the middle of an inning without McDowell having to come out, etc..

The only one of the veterans that was brought in for 2015 that was expected to produce in any form was Markakis - the other guys were brought in to be teachers or tutors in the hope that the young players might gain some knowledge from a voice that they identified more with since they didn't have the title of Manager or Coach tied to their names. I think most organizations are big believers in those types of guys when they have young teams. The problem with last year's team is that it was taking the kids longer than expected to make those adjustments and those veterans were performing better than expected and HAD to be played or the record would've wound up much worse than it did. I shudder to imagine what the record might've been without KJ and A. J.'s production and without Grilli and Johnson in the pen before the deadline when they were the ONLY guys in the pen that could get anyone out. The lack of offense was obvious, but how much worse might it have been with Eury Perez in CF, Todd Cunningham in RF, and Terdoslavich in LF all year?

I was one of Fredi's biggest haters when it came to playing A. J. instead of giving Bethancourt regular ABs and experience handling the staff, but wasn't there to see what was happening during workouts/bullpen sessions on throw days/during Pitchers' meetings. Maybe he really just wasn't learning anything from watching A. J. do those things. If so, I completely understand why he wasn't being played. Same thing with the other guys - if the Coaches and veterans keep trying to explain to you why you're struggling (Peterson's struggles against LHPs/Garcia's defensive struggles, the inability of the young SPs and RPs to throw strikes somewhere that weren't belt high over the center of the plate), you have little choice but to play somebody else until you find someone that can do those things.

It's academic because we weren't going to be playoff contenders even if we hadn't made any in-season moves and I'm not a Fredi apologist, but the shape of the bullpen after the deadline trades and the injury to Grilli was horrid. Kelly, Aardsma, Detwiler, Brigham, and Marimon have no business ever throwing a pitch in a big league game again. I give Marksberry a bit of a pass because he was rushed and he could conceivably develop into a LOOGY if nothing else. Not sure on McKirahan, but the Rule 5 thing kept him on the roster. In the modern game, there's nothing like a bad bullpen to deflate a team. You just see a team sag when a series of arsonists enter a game. All the veteran leadership in the world can't combat a bad bullpen.

With of OF mentioned above, we're in 1962 Mets' territory. I suppose that would make any turn around in the next decade all the more newsworthy.

I have no trouble with Pierzynski. Bethancourt just wasn't ready with the bat or glove and OJT at the major league level probably would have caused a pronounced regression that may be long term. Curious to see what the team does moving forward at the C position. I didn't like the length of Markakis' contract, but he's the least of our problems.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I understand the concept. But my point was that the team played sloppy baseball and didn't show a lot of professional growth. CB was a disaster, essentially a lost season. I can't help but think that IF you were bringing in a mentor for CB it should have been another Latin catcher, someone like a modern day Eddie Perez instead of a guy who's reputation was his offense, meh defense, being a jerk and being an enforcer. Instead CB is really no better today that he was a year ago in terms of performance BUT he now has to overcome the stigma that he created for himself in 2015 as opposed to riding along on the promise of his athletic talents. My bet is he will NEVER be a significant Braves catching option. So, experiment failed.

Same for Gomes. You hear all the interviews that discussed his off the field value but what do you expect people will say? The effort and improvement on the field really didn't show that players were learning a code of conduct that enforced good baseball, even on a bad team.

So, the question was Is it worth it? After all, the fact of the matter is that the on field presence of these players only insured that the team would finish third from last instead of dead last when considering their straight baseball contributions. The fact that the play was sloppy and uninspired which contributed to that third from last finish tells me that their off the field contributions paid few 2015 dividends if any. I guess the hope is that what some of the players learned from the wise elder Braves players of 2015 will carry forward in future years with young Braves, but I doubt it.

I know there can be value. Terry Pendleton won the MVP not because of his baseball skills but largely because of his effect on that young Braves team. But those kinds of seasons are pretty rare.

 

[50PoundHead]

I think the problem with Pierzynski is that he doesn't see himself as a tutor. He wants to play. More power to him for having that attitude. I agree that if the Braves were looking for a tutor, they should have signed someone else. My guess is A.J. plays full-contact tiddly-winks.

I always saw the Gomes signing as a mistake. Adonis Garcia could have been with the major league team from mid-April on and provided the same production.

 

[clvclv]

I understand the concept. But my point was that the team played sloppy baseball and didn't show a lot of professional growth. CB was a disaster, essentially a lost season. I can't help but think that IF you were bringing in a mentor for CB it should have been another Latin catcher, someone like a modern day Eddie Perez instead of a guy who's reputation was his offense, meh defense, being a jerk and being an enforcer. Instead CB is really no better today that he was a year ago in terms of performance BUT he now has to overcome the stigma that he created for himself in 2015 as opposed to riding along on the promise of his athletic talents. My bet is he will NEVER be a significant Braves catching option. So, experiment failed.

Same for Gomes. You hear all the interviews that discussed his off the field value but what do you expect people will say? The effort and improvement on the field really didn't show that players were learning a code of conduct that enforced good baseball, even on a bad team.

So, the question was Is it worth it? After all, the fact of the matter is that the on field presence of these players only insured that the team would finish third from last instead of dead last when considering their straight baseball contributions. The fact that the play was sloppy and uninspired which contributed to that third from last finish tells me that their off the field contributions paid few 2015 dividends if any. I guess the hope is that what some of the players learned from the wise elder Braves players of 2015 will carry forward in future years with young Braves, but I doubt it.

I know there can be value. Terry Pendleton won the MVP not because of his baseball skills but largely because of his effect on that young Braves team. But those kinds of seasons are pretty rare.

Of course it was worth it. If for no other reason than it helps you decide whether any of the pieces that were brought in will EVER be contributors at the MLB level.

Think of it this way - for all the bellyaching many whiners have done, the presence of the Maybins/Pierzynskis/Bourns/etc. has now provided you a significant measuring stick.

Cameron Maybin's no better than a replacement-level player and Michael Bourn's not even that good? OK. What does that say about Eury Perez, Todd Cunningham, Joey T, and ultimately Olivera and Mallex Smith if they can't perform better and Fredi HAS to play them to keep from losing 100 games?

Any other caddy is brought in for Bethancourt with the COMPLETE understanding that that's all he's here for. What does that say about Christian if he doesn't improve enough to even beat out THAT guy?

Grilli comes back healthy and Vizcaino/Simmons/Withrow/whomever doesn't step up and turn him into a middle reliever? It should tell you you need to keep looking for a Closer.

People are still *itching about Markakis' contract two years from now? What does that say about Cunningham, Joey-T, and ultimately Connor Lien and Davidson?

What signing those guys "should" tell you is that if less expensive players and the prospects you have can't displace those players WITHOUT losing 90+ games, you need to go find someone else. As 50 mentions, you're not being a Fredi-Apologist if you're just pointing out that the brass could bring in any other Manager and even he couldn't win more games. Joe Maddon would've lost 90+ games with that collection of "talent" last season.

 

[Carp]

What the KC rebuild proves to me is that if you remove time as a variable in your equation- e.g., "we want to be competitive 2017," you stand a far better chance of success. Give me a half-decade of picking at the top and trading every promising player for three younger promising players, I can build you a winner. It just takes time.

Moore took over in KC in 07 to a team with basically no top major league talent other than Greinke, and not much in minor league talent, especially in the upper minors. It took him about 6 years to build the system up and make some shrewd trades in order to turn the ship around. KC finally fielded a competitive team in 2013 and finished over .500 for the first time in over 20 years.

The Braves are in a MUCH better situation than KC was in when Moore took over. We have a decent core at the major league level already and a farm system rich with talent (not as much high end talent in the upper minors however). It honestly would not take much to make this team a contender.