Peraza debuts for Dodgers

[sturg33]

Repost please and I will aee.

Basically - give Wood 2.5 WAR for the next 4 years.

Give Perazza 2 WAR for the next 6 years.

Olivera - 3 WAR for the next 4 years.

Equals = Dodgers getting 22 WAR = $154M in value (@ $7M/WAR)

Braves get 12 WAR = $84M in value

That's a $70M difference in value. Even if you give a good amount to the pick and the reliever, it's not getting us there

 

[thethe]

Yeah, I'm almost fairly certain that Wood will not pitch enough to get those numbers. I suspect though that Peraza would bridge that gap personally.

Also, I believe that the pick has a decent chance at being a good player.

Finally, Braves are able to replace that WAR at second and starting pitcher than they could at third. Dealing from surplus is ok with me.

I just don't think it's an easy or reliable exercise to project WAR to evaluate a trade. It's all guesswork and inherently biased

 

[sturg33]

Yeah, I'm almost fairly certain that Wood will not pitch enough to get those numbers. I suspect though that Peraza would bridge that gap personally.

Also, I believe that the pick has a decent chance at being a good player.

Finally, Braves are able to replace that WAR at second and starting pitcher than they could at third. Dealing from surplus is ok with me.

I just don't think it's an easy or reliable exercise to project WAR to evaluate a trade. It's all guesswork and inherently biased

Wood put up 2.6 last year and is on pace for over 3 this year.

If you account for injury from him, then you have to account for injury for Olivera.

Lastly - assuming a low 30's draft pick will become a major leaguer is a bad assumption. Odds are against. I recall someone putting a monetary value of that pick at around $8M.

 

[thethe]

Wood put up 2.6 last year and is on pace for over 3 this year.

If you account for injury from him, then you have to account for injury for Olivera.

Lastly - assuming a low 30's draft pick will become a major leaguer is a bad assumption. Odds are against. I recall someone putting a monetary value of that pick at around $8M.

I think the pick could conceivably be in the high 20s based on what free agents are signed.

Injury risk on pitcher far exceeds anything with a hitter other than a back injury.

 

[Chico]

Basically - give Wood 2.5 WAR for the next 4 years.

Give Perazza 2 WAR for the next 6 years.

Olivera - 3 WAR for the next 4 years.

Equals = Dodgers getting 22 WAR = $154M in value (@ $7M/WAR)

Braves get 12 WAR = $84M in value

That's a $70M difference in value. Even if you give a good amount to the pick and the reliever, it's not getting us there

We have Olivera for 5 years, so add on another 3 war (which is his low side), Bird could garner 5 War in 6 years as a good reliever, so add that in. That's another 56M there. The pick could be worth $8M in value, now we're at 64. You're assuming Peraza has no learning curve like his best comp Escobar did when he had a .05 WAR his first fullseason, so take away 1.5 WAR That's negative 10M from the Dodgers. Now we're up 4million.

That game can go either way.

EDIT. I forgot Paco Rodriguez. Add in another 4 WAR. That's another $28Million.

 

[smootness]

I think the pick could conceivably be in the high 20s based on what free agents are signed.

Injury risk on pitcher far exceeds anything with a hitter other than a back injury.

That's not really true. Olivera has basically missed 2 full years of the last 4 due to injury and is closer himself to TJ right now than Wood, which would put him out a full year. Hamstring issues linger, and the blood clots could come back at any time.

His injury risk is not the same of your typical position player. It's the reason I didn't want us to sign him this offseason and part of the reason I think this was a bad trade now. The likelihood is that the Dodgers come out ahead on it in the long run.

 

[smootness]

We have Olivera for 5 years, so add on another 3 war (which is his low side), Bird could garner 5 War in 6 years as a good reliever, so add that in. That's another 56M there. The pick could be worth $8M in value, now we're at 64. You're assuming Peraza has no learning curve like his best comp Escobar did when he had a .05 WAR his first fullseason, so take away 1.5 WAR That's negative 10M from the Dodgers. Now we're up 4million.

That game can go either way.

I think saying Olivera's downside is 3 WAR is unbelievably generous.

 

[sturg33]

I think 3 WAR is Olivera's high side. He is apparently a bad defender.

Your very optimistic assumptions for Olivera and Bird are fun though.

Hope you're right.

I'll also be shocked if Peraza doesn't accumulate 12 WAR in his first 6 seasons. Freakin Jace Peterson is nearly there this year - and by all accounts, Peraza is a better hitter, defender, and base runner.

But I applaud your optimism

 

[weso1]

Basically - give Wood 2.5 WAR for the next 4 years.

Give Perazza 2 WAR for the next 6 years.

Olivera - 3 WAR for the next 4 years.

Equals = Dodgers getting 22 WAR = $154M in value (@ $7M/WAR)

Braves get 12 WAR = $84M in value

That's a $70M difference in value. Even if you give a good amount to the pick and the reliever, it's not getting us there

That's not each player's value. Peraza and Olivera are both prospects, although Olivera is 30 years old. They should be valued as a prospect. A fair predicted WAR from Peraza is less than one WAR per year. Olivera, being a higher ranked prospect, is expected to about double that number.

 

[smootness]

I think Peraza is the definition of an 'at least solid, but not great' prospect. I think his absolute downside is 1 WAR but more likely to be around 2, and I think his absolute upside is around 4 WAR but likely to be around 3. So he's a 2-3 WAR guy, which definitely has value.

I don't really know what Olivera is. I think, over the course of a full season, he would probably be a 2-4 WAR guy, but there's not a great chance of him playing a full season. And Wood has been a 3-4 WAR guy. I like Paco, but he's known to have injury concerns as well. Over the last 3 years, he's been worth a little more than 1 WAR. I think projecting him for 4 over 4 years is insane. And Bird could turn into a valuable reliever, but who the heck knows. Projecting for 5 WAR over 6 years? Good grief.

 

[smootness]

That's not each player's value. Peraza and Olivera are both prospects, although Olivera is 30 years old. They should be valued as a prospect. A fair predicted WAR from Peraza is less than one WAR per year. Olivera, being a higher ranked prospect is expected to about double that number.

So Olivera should be projected for less than 2 WAR per year? That's not a good way to go about defending the trade.

 

[zbhargrove]

I think 3 WAR is Olivera's high side. He is apparently a bad defender.

Your very optimistic assumptions for Olivera and Bird are fun though.

Hope you're right.

I'll also be shocked if Peraza doesn't accumulate 12 WAR in his first 6 seasons. Freakin Jace Peterson is nearly there this year - and by all accounts, Peraza is a better hitter, defender, and base runner.

But I applaud your optimism

You're making just as many assumptions as he is...

 

[sturg33]

I think Peraza is the definition of an 'at least solid, but not great' prospect. I think his absolute downside is 1 WAR but more likely to be around 2, and I think his absolute upside is around 4 WAR but likely to be around 3. So he's a 2-3 WAR guy, which definitely has value.

I don't really know what Olivera is. I think, over the course of a full season, he would probably be a 2-4 WAR guy, but there's not a great chance of him playing a full season. And Wood has been a 3-4 WAR guy. I like Paco, but he's known to have injury concerns as well. Over the last 3 years, he's been worth a little more than 1 WAR. I think projecting him for 4 over 4 years is insane. And Bird could turn into a valuable reliever, but who the heck knows. Projecting for 5 WAR over 6 years? Good grief.

Yeah - I was trying to be as realistic as possible...

 

[weso1]

So Olivera should be projected for less than 2 WAR per year? That's not a good way to go about defending the trade.

I'm not defending the trade. I personally would not have made that trade. I'm defending the idea that Peraza is a bit overrated on this board by some. And defending the value of the Dodgers taking on a good chunk of change for Olivera.

 

[Chico]

I think Peraza is the definition of an 'at least solid, but not great' prospect. I think his absolute downside is 1 WAR but more likely to be around 2, and I think his absolute upside is around 4 WAR but likely to be around 3. So he's a 2-3 WAR guy, which definitely has value.

I don't really know what Olivera is. I think, over the course of a full season, he would probably be a 2-4 WAR guy, but there's not a great chance of him playing a full season. And Wood has been a 3-4 WAR guy. I like Paco, but he's known to have injury concerns as well. Over the last 3 years, he's been worth a little more than 1 WAR. I think projecting him for 4 over 4 years is insane. And Bird could turn into a valuable reliever, but who the heck knows. Projecting for 5 WAR over 6 years? Good grief.

I was playing the game to show how if you do the seesaw effect and pump one side up while lowering the other side the game can be won by anybody. Obviously you're playing the pump Wood/Peraza up and lower Olivera/Bird/Paco down game.

The truth is I have no clue. I'm just surprised that there are such strong opinions being made when we don't even have all the information yet.

 

[sturg33]

I was playing the game to show how if you do the seesaw effect and pump one side up while lowering the other side the game can be won by anybody. Obviously you're playing the pump Wood/Peraza up and lower Olivera/Bird/Paco down game.

The truth is I have no clue. I'm just surprised that there are such strong opinions being made when we don't even have all the information yet.

How was I pumping one side up and one down?

I gave Olivera what I believe to his ceiling. I gave Alex Wood slightly less than what he's already doing. Peraza at 2 may be slightly optimistic... but like I said, I'd be shocked if he doesn't surpass it.

 

[BRule]

Yeah, I'm almost fairly certain that Wood will not pitch enough to get those numbers. I suspect though that Peraza would bridge that gap personally.

Lol

 

[smootness]

I was playing the game to show how if you do the seesaw effect and pump one side up while lowering the other side the game can be won by anybody. Obviously you're playing the pump Wood/Peraza up and lower Olivera/Bird/Paco down game.

The truth is I have no clue. I'm just surprised that there are such strong opinions being made when we don't even have all the information yet.

I'm really not, though. The only 2 players in the deal who had played even one game in the majors were Wood and Paco. Wood put up (if you average Fangraphs and BR) a little over 3 WAR last year in 24 starts and had over 2 WAR in 20 starts this year at the time of the trade. So I think it's safe to call him about a 3-4 WAR player over a full season at the major league level. He had already proven himself. Paco had proven himself to be about a 1 WAR or slightly better player over the course of a full season but had significant injury issues that showed themselves the last couple of years and robbed him of pretty much any value in that time frame.

So given what they've shown over the last 3 years, Wood is a 3-4 WAR player and Paco is likely a 1 WAR player but less likely to give you that than Wood. Those are just facts.

Projecting anything for Peraza, Olivera, or Bird is pure speculation. The Dodgers clearly win the deal in terms of proven assets, and I think it's fair to project Peraza at 1-3 WAR and Olivera at 2-4. Peraza is likely to be around the 2 WAR level, and Olivera, if healthy, should be around 3 or perhaps a little more based on his offensive scouting report. The problem is, Olivera is far less likely to play a full season than Peraza, which could bring the value there close to even.

And Bird is a total unknown. Projecting a guy outside the Dodgers' top 10 prospects as basically a 1 WAR player is a little much to me.

So the Dodgers clearly win on proven assets, and you can really argue that we could win the speculative assets, but you could also argue that will come out about even. If you're going to clearly lose a deal on proven assets, you have to clearly win on speculative assets, and we didn't.

 

[sturg33]

I'm really not, though. The only 2 players in the deal who had played even one game in the majors were Wood and Paco. Wood put up (if you average Fangraphs and BR) a little over 3 WAR last year in 24 starts and had over 2 WAR in 20 starts this year at the time of the trade. So I think it's safe to call him about a 3-4 WAR player over a full season at the major league level. He had already proven himself. Paco had proven himself to be about a 1 WAR or slightly better player over the course of a full season but had significant injury issues that showed themselves the last couple of years and robbed him of pretty much any value in that time frame.

So given what they've shown over the last 3 years, Wood is a 3-4 WAR player and Paco is likely a 1 WAR player but less likely to give you that than Wood. Those are just facts.

Projecting anything for Peraza, Olivera, or Bird is pure speculation. The Dodgers clearly win the deal in terms of proven assets, and I think it's fair to project Peraza at 1-3 WAR and Olivera at 2-4. Peraza is likely to be around the 2 WAR level, and Olivera, if healthy, should be around 3 or perhaps a little more based on his offensive scouting report. The problem is, Olivera is far less likely to play a full season than Peraza, which could bring the value there close to even.

And Bird is a total unknown. Projecting a guy outside the Dodgers' top 10 prospects as basically a 1 WAR player is a little much to me.

So the Dodgers clearly win on proven assets, and you can really argue that we could win the speculative assets, but you could also argue that will come out about even. If you're going to clearly lose a deal on proven assets, you have to clearly win on speculative assets, and we didn't.

It's much easier to say "The Johns know what they're doing" around these parts

 

[Chico]

I'm really not, though. The only 2 players in the deal who had played even one game in the majors were Wood and Paco. Wood put up (if you average Fangraphs and BR) a little over 3 WAR last year in 24 starts and had over 2 WAR in 20 starts this year at the time of the trade. So I think it's safe to call him about a 3-4 WAR player over a full season at the major league level. He had already proven himself. Paco had proven himself to be about a 1 WAR or slightly better player over the course of a full season but had significant injury issues that showed themselves the last couple of years and robbed him of pretty much any value in that time frame.

So given what they've shown over the last 3 years, Wood is a 3-4 WAR player and Paco is likely a 1 WAR player but less likely to give you that than Wood. Those are just facts.

Projecting anything for Peraza, Olivera, or Bird is pure speculation. The Dodgers clearly win the deal in terms of proven assets, and I think it's fair to project Peraza at 1-3 WAR and Olivera at 2-4. Peraza is likely to be around the 2 WAR level, and Olivera, if healthy, should be around 3 or perhaps a little more based on his offensive scouting report. The problem is, Olivera is far less likely to play a full season than Peraza, which could bring the value there close to even.

And Bird is a total unknown. Projecting a guy outside the Dodgers' top 10 prospects as basically a 1 WAR player is a little much to me.

So the Dodgers clearly win on proven assets, and you can really argue that we could win the speculative assets, but you could also argue that will come out about even. If you're going to clearly lose a deal on proven assets, you have to clearly win on speculative assets, and we didn't.

So Olivera and Peraza are likely to have the same value is your argument? Can we put that on the record and revisit in a year? We'll make an avatar bet or something. I'm down.