Plan for Starting Pitching

[50PoundHead]

Since that's me - here's why I called it that. Tons of people around here put a huge amount of weight on these ranking lists - so much so that they somehow believe that being on them is an absolute promise of future success at the MLB level. Yet we have guys like Folty and Swanson who've had long stretches where they've struggled after being promoted. Newcomb's facing that as well at this point. In no way do I think that means that at least one or even all three of them will ultimately reach their ceiling. What it does mean (to me) is that lots of people are weighting that minor league success too heavily (much like defensive metrics seem to be weighted too heavily).

If an "overpay" to land Gray for us involves Anderson or Gohara, Pache, and Wentz, we traded our #7 or #8, #9, and #13 prospects to land a proven front of the rotation SP - and STILL HAVE Folty, Julio, Newcomb, and three SP prospects that everyone's higher on than the ones we traded, Ender and a CF prospect that everyone's higher on than the CF we traded. So you're willing to send me 2+ years of a cheap PROVEN front-end SP (that we'd have as much chance of extending as anyone would given where he's from) for my 4th and 5th best SP prospects and my 2nd best CF prospect?

Yeah, I'll do that.

Sure, we weight our prospects too highly. But I don't think Gray is a fit for where we are currently at as a team. If he were the missing piece of the puzzle, I think he'd be worth taking a long look at acquiring (although I think his arm is going to fall off). Even if Acuna and Albies come up and play reasonably well, we're still a couple of players away from having a true contender and by the time we are a contender, Gray will be a free agent and regardless of what anyone says, I don't buy the hometown discount thing. If Gray were a third baseman in a similar contract position, that would be more intriguing to me.

 

[clvclv]

Sure, we weight our prospects too highly. But I don't think Gray is a fit for where we are currently at as a team. If he were the missing piece of the puzzle, I think he'd be worth taking a long look at acquiring (although I think his arm is going to fall off). Even if Acuna and Albies come up and play reasonably well, we're still a couple of players away from having a true contender and by the time we are a contender, Gray will be a free agent and regardless of what anyone says, I don't buy the hometown discount thing. If Gray were a third baseman in a similar contract position, that would be more intriguing to me.

That's a perfectly understandable argument - at least until the trade deadline every year. Name one season you've followed baseball that by far the most in demand asset wasn't starting pitching. You can often find a way to make due at other positions - but if you can't pitch, you don't win. It's not the sexy thing to build around these days (I get that), but it served the Braves and their fans awfully well for 15 seasons not too long ago.

 

[Southcack77]

Sure, we weight our prospects too highly. But I don't think Gray is a fit for where we are currently at as a team. If he were the missing piece of the puzzle, I think he'd be worth taking a long look at acquiring (although I think his arm is going to fall off). Even if Acuna and Albies come up and play reasonably well, we're still a couple of players away from having a true contender and by the time we are a contender, Gray will be a free agent and regardless of what anyone says, I don't buy the hometown discount thing. If Gray were a third baseman in a similar contract position, that would be more intriguing to me.

I'm not really suggesting they should do this, but nothing prevents the Braves from acquiring more than just Gray between now and 2018.

Let's say the Braves acquire two starting pitchers who are better than anyone they have. Does that start to look like more of a playoff team? I think so.

The cost of doing it is the question. Overpay tends to be a subjective term.

braves could run a rotation out Verlander, Gray, Folty, Teheran, Newcomb. Or Archer, Gray, Folty, Teheran, Newcomb, plus stuff. Is that a playoff rotation? Possible. Does it help them in 2019 and beyond? Probably.

Is it worth what they would give up? I don't know.

 

[Southcack77]

That's a perfectly understandable argument - at least until the trade deadline every year. Name one season you've followed baseball that by far the most in demand asset wasn't starting pitching. You can often find a way to make due at other positions - but if you can't pitch, you don't win. It's not the sexy thing to build around these days (I get that), but it served the Braves and their fans awfully well for 15 seasons not too long ago.

I think Swanson is the poster boy, but also Folty.

They've both were valued highly, they've both struggled a whole bunch. Neither has really proven to be a great player yet, though Folty perhaps shows signs.

Someone saying that they would never trade Albies could very well be dealing with the reality in two years that Albies is hitting .240 with minimal power, playing a good second base. But in their heads they've got him down for .320, 18 HRs.

 

[bravesguy]

braves could run a rotation out Verlander, Gray, Folty, Teheran, Newcomb. Or Archer, Gray, Folty, Teheran, Newcomb, plus stuff. Is that a playoff rotation? Possible. Does it help them in 2019 and beyond? Probably.

Is it worth what they would give up? I don't know.

I 100% agree. Like many have said, don't negatively impact your short term rebuild (1-4 years), but outside of that, I say make the move to get into contention with guys that have 2-3 years on their deal.

At first I was down on this because he would not be long term, but if the rotation 2018 is as you say above...Gray, Folty, Teheran, Newcomb, OTHER and we are in the race...we have options.

- If Sims, Soroka, Fried, Allard, Gohara, Wright are showing to be ready in AAA, then at the trade deadline, trade Teheran (or whoever) to make room.

- If we are rocking, then keep it as it is through the 2018 season and win with at least 1 young gun coming 2019.

I always like to have too much as oppose to too few pitchers. People will typically pay for your excess, but just laugh at you for being too few (look at NYM).