REAL FOOTBALL Thread

Carp said:
The problem is that you aren't really going to have a low cost QB at any point aside from MAYBE 2028, even then I would question what the term "low cost" really means.

Cousins in pretty much guaranteed to be there for 3 years. You technically could move on after year 2, but with 37 million in dead cap that seems extremely unlikely. So, Cousins is gone after year 3, you still have another 12.5m in deadcap and Penix making another 7 million in year 4. That's 19.5 million. Not terrible considering today's QB prices but not what I would consider "low cost". And then, if things go as planned and Penix is actually good in Year 4, he will immediately demand an extension that off-season in the 200-300 million range, depending on how good that year 4 was.

And of course this all assumes Penix isn't forced to take over sooner because of an injury to a 36 year old Cousins and then demands an extension when he is eligible to after year 3.

The Falcons are never really going to enjoy the benefits of a rookie QB contract.
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Cousins will be cut or traded after year 2.

Hell I see a scenario he's traded after this year if there's a team who feels they're in their window but need a QB.

The dead money isn't that bad. They will save either 32M in cap if they cut him before june first of year 3 or 45M if they cut him after. Unless Penix blows up literally and cannot play football, Cousins won't be a falcon in 2026. If they cut him pre-June 1 they save 22.5M on the cap, if they cut him after they save 35M on the 2026 cap moving 12.5 to the 2027. If they can trade him in the offseason before the 2026 season (some team could like his contract and to secure his rights) They has 32.5M on the 2026 season.

Looking at PEnix's contract, In year 3 he'll have a 6M ish contract meaning the cap hit for the QB will be about 32M. Which is cheap for a QB now.

I won't argue that it didn't fully make sense, mainly because like you said we're losing low cost Penix seasons. But I can see a scenario where the Falcons trade cousins after this year for a 2nd round pick and Penix takes over as long as it's a post 6/1 trade.
 
Carp said:
The Falcons are never really going to enjoy the benefits of a rookie QB contract.
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Agreed, and he's an older QB prospect.

The only bright side is you have some cheap insurance if Cousins has a injury and Penix we can still make the playoffs and make a run when KC comes back.
 
zitothebrave said:
Cousins will be cut or traded after year 2.

Hell I see a scenario he's traded after this year if there's a team who feels they're in their window but need a QB.

The dead money isn't that bad. They will save either 32M in cap if they cut him before june first of year 3 or 45M if they cut him after. Unless Penix blows up literally and cannot play football, Cousins won't be a falcon in 2026. If they cut him pre-June 1 they save 22.5M on the cap, if they cut him after they save 35M on the 2026 cap moving 12.5 to the 2027. If they can trade him in the offseason before the 2026 season (some team could like his contract and to secure his rights) They has 32.5M on the 2026 season.

Looking at PEnix's contract, In year 3 he'll have a 6M ish contract meaning the cap hit for the QB will be about 32M. Which is cheap for a QB now.

I won't argue that it didn't fully make sense, mainly because like you said we're losing low cost Penix seasons. But I can see a scenario where the Falcons trade cousins after this year for a 2nd round pick and Penix takes over as long as it's a post 6/1 trade.
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The Falcons are carrying a 12.5 million per year cap hit signing bonus regardless if he is cut or traded tomorrow. It's unlikely any team will be willing to eat much, if any of Cousins remaining contract in a trade. If he plays well enough, the Falcons won't trade him. If he doesn't, no team we will be willing to take on a huge salary for a mediocre late 30's QB. Cousins is essentially untradeable for all intents and purposes.

In the scenario where the Falcons move on from Cousins after year 2, they still take a massive dead cap hit of 25 million, assuming they don't move his 2027 12.5 million cap hit up a year. So a minimum if 32ish million in cap space for the QB1 position is certainly not what I would call a "low cost" QB. And of course, if Penix is any good you are basically force into extending him after the 2026 season. So you lose all hope of having a cheap QB at any point, and that is best case scenario.
 
Tapate50 said:
Agreed, and he's an older QB prospect.

The only bright side is you have some cheap insurance if Cousins has a injury and Penix we can still make the playoffs and make a run when KC comes back.
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I mean there is a decent argument to be made that the Falcons are built to win now with the offensive weapons they have. And putting all of your eggs into the basket of a 36 year old QB coming off an torn achilles probably isn't the wisest choice. So a suitable back-up that has long term potential is a good way mitigate that risk. It's an opportunity to be successful both now and later.

I am not sure a 24 year old QB is the direction I would have gone with for the 2nd half of that plan, but I suppose if you believe the talent drop off after Penix was substantial, then that idea holds merit. But, imo, JJ McCarthy seems like a carbon copy of Cousins, and would have been a plug and play after Cousins is shown the door. But I am certainly not a talent evaluator.
 
Tapate50 said:
This roster isn't really built to bust it deep. Maybe a great fit.
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I don't disagree with that. Fans get too caught up in "he throws the ball downfield, he's better."

My concerns with Cousins would be mainly that at his peak, he was a slightly above average QB that would kill bad teams and **** the bed in big games. Now, he's coming off a major injury with age concerns. He may have just enough to kinda keep things going for a year or 2 though, I guess that is the hope.
 
gilesfan said:
I don't disagree with that. Fans get too caught up in "he throws the ball downfield, he's better."

My concerns with Cousins would be mainly that at his peak, he was a slightly above average QB that would kill bad teams and **** the bed in big games. Now, he's coming off a major injury with age concerns. He may have just enough to kinda keep things going for a year or 2 though, I guess that is the hope.
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I remember you were his original fan
 
Tapate50 said:
Auyuik to Pitt ?
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Basically 2 options. Aiyuk to Pit is agreed upon, SF just has to call it into the league office. But they also want to keep him long-term, and are trying to get something done. Would imagine we'll know something by week 1 at the latest, if not sooner.
 
Heyward said:
Basically 2 options. Aiyuk to Pit is agreed upon, SF just has to call it into the league office. But they also want to keep him long-term, and are trying to get something done. Would imagine we'll know something by week 1 at the latest, if not sooner.
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Losing Aiyuk is going to be bad for SF unless someone steps in for him. Ricky Pearsall could be a good one long term, but who knows if he can step in right away.
 
Falcons trading for Judon. 3rd round pick in 25, would imagine they'll re-work his deal.
 
Heyward said:
Falcons trading for Judon. 3rd round pick in 25, would imagine they'll re-work his deal.
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Nah they'll do what the Jets did with Reddick lol.

I hope the Falcons are smart enough.

If healthy he's a double digit sacker which is something Atlanta has had issues with. IN the history of th eFranchise they have 15 double digit sackers, John Abraham, Patrick Kerney, and Rod Coleman have 9 of them. The contract will determine if it's a bad deal or not. 3rd round pick is not much and if he posts a single double digit season here.
 
Falcons also signing Justin Simmons, 1 year 7.5M fully guaranteed, up to 8M max. Would imagine some cap moves are coming for Atlanta with this and Judon. OTC has them at 7ish mil with Judon. Maybe one restructure to free up 7-8 million would be about all they need.
 
Heyward said:
Falcons also signing Justin Simmons, 1 year 7.5M fully guaranteed, up to 8M max. Would imagine some cap moves are coming for Atlanta with this and Judon. OTC has them at 7ish mil with Judon. Maybe one restructure to free up 7-8 million would be about all they need.
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Falcons did basically no ****ery before the season so they can easily restructure guys.
 
Heyward said:
They re-did Lindstrom's deal already. Would imagine one more would be enough to fit in Simmons, and have some leeway for the season.
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True, jbut they have others like Jarrett and Matthews who have large base salaries that can easily be converted to save cap.
 
What is the reasoning for sitting Penix in the preseason. Is he starting the year as the starter?
 
gilesfan said:
What is the reasoning for sitting Penix in the preseason. Is he starting the year as the starter?
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I assume considering his history with injuries and Cousins just coming off a major injury it's all for precautions.

NFL should IMO just can pre-season, it's kind of stupid. Let teams set up scrimmages and what not but don't make preseason official. Leave it up to the teams to do preseason how they want.
 
zitothebrave said:
I assume considering his history with injuries and Cousins just coming off a major injury it's all for precautions.

NFL should IMO just can pre-season, it's kind of stupid. Let teams set up scrimmages and what not but don't make preseason official. Leave it up to the teams to do preseason how they want.
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NFL isn't giving up that money. They are still taking in hundreds of millions on pre-season games. Teams have sort of transitioned the pre-season to more of a "rookie league" style anyways, while also including vets trying to make a roster spot.
 
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