Sherman: Braves offered Heyward 80M after 2013

Seems really random that a throwaway line in a rag like the NY Post would actually be breaking any news. I wouldn't put much stock in the specifics here.

However, I am really glad we got to have these conversations again.
 
I don't think Simmons gets 200 million and he's at a premium defensive position.

I do not think most people or most teams think a defensive run saved is equal to a run earned. The way they calculate defense is far from a science.
 
BTW, I know the immediate shock and emotion played into the reactions but reading the Heyward trade thread is always a good time.
 
clvclv said:
OOOOOOPS.

I'm sorry, Heyward, his camp, and his defenders simply can't make the case that he's a $150+ million player at this point - there are no numbers that will change that.

Will someone give it to him this winter? Possibly. Of course the Angels gave Josh Hamilton that kind of money and then ate half of it to get rid of him.

Giving Jason $150 million won't be TWICE as bad as giving B. J. $75 million, but it'll be close.
Click to expand...

Last 3 years Heyward compiled a 15.1 fWAR, Even if we halv his defensive value he comes in at 12.2 fWAR, average per season being 4, assuming 6 million per WAR (Which is on the lower end) that would mean his fair market value would have been about 24 million each year. So over a 7 year deal 24*7=168

There just made the case without trying.

Anyone who signs Jason for under 20M a year, odds are they're gonna get a bargain. It's not a given because baseball is a weird sport, and he does have injury concerns, but given his age (25) and his past production, he could be one of the better value expensive free agent signings in recent times.
 
zitothebrave said:
Last 3 years Heyward compiled a 15.1 fWAR, Even if we halv his defensive value he comes in at 12.2 fWAR, average per season being 4, assuming 6 million per WAR (Which is on the lower end) that would mean his fair market value would have been about 24 million each year. So over a 7 year deal 24*7=168

There just made the case without trying.

Anyone who signs Jason for under 20M a year, odds are they're gonna get a bargain. It's not a given because baseball is a weird sport, and he does have injury concerns, but given his age (25) and his past production, he could be one of the better value expensive free agent signings in recent times.
Click to expand...

And if he continues to regress at the plate and his defensive value deteriorates as it does for most 30 year old what does that contract look like at the back end?

I don't understand this idea that you are using past performance to justify what he will be worth in the future. To me there has to be more in the decision making than what his fWAR was the prior 3 seasons.
 
thethe said:
And if he continues to regress at the plate and his defensive value deteriorates as it does for most 30 year old what does that contract look like at the back end?

I don't understand this idea that you are using past performance to justify what he will be worth in the future. To me there has to be more in the decision making than what his fWAR was the prior 3 seasons.
Click to expand...

We've yet to see how this year shakes out, but last 3 years his wRC+ 121 120 110. Slight slip last year but hardly a regression. Primarily because of his power going. Which if he never gets back, yes he won't be a great hitter. He'll be average for the postiion which does hurt his value. But again, we'll have to see how this year shakes out. If he winds up around where he was in 2012-2013 he's gonna get paid.
 
zitothebrave said:
We've yet to see how this year shakes out, but last 3 years his wRC+ 121 120 110. Slight slip last year but hardly a regression. Primarily because of his power going. Which if he never gets back, yes he won't be a great hitter. He'll be average for the postiion which does hurt his value. But again, we'll have to see how this year shakes out. If he winds up around where he was in 2012-2013 he's gonna get paid.
Click to expand...

Sure if he winds up producing like he has in his good years then its a good player to have...but if he doesn't? I'm not so sure.
 
BTW, this is a tweet from the offseason:

David O'Brien
@DOBrienAJC
Heyward said he and agent had extension talks that lasted "minutes" w/ Wren after 2012 season, and no such talks since w/ #Braves
 
I wonder if Heyward's agents will seek a pillow contract for 2016 if his value stagnates. He's still so young that a monster year could easily net him $250MM plus. Then again, if no monster year ever comes they are left holding a pretty empty bag.
 
Perfect Cell said:
It seems kinda ridiculous to make future judgements on a 25 year old based on 2 months of 2015 but hey.
Click to expand...

Who said it's coming from just this year?

His offensive game wasnt very good in 2014 either.

2013 and 2012 he hit well but something seems wrong with him at the plate but i guess we'll see what happens.
 
thethe said:
Sure if he winds up producing like he has in his good years then its a good player to have...but if he doesn't? I'm not so sure.
Click to expand...

Here's my deal. We have a lot of money to play with this offseason. The premium FAs are Heyward, Justin, Fowler, Cueto, Zimmerman and Price. With some other likely expensive signings including Samardzija, Gallardo, Lincecum, and a few other pitchers with good career numbers but questions.

We're gonna have a lot of money to play with. Assuming we don't get options on several guys who shouldn't have their options picked up like Cahill and Gomes, we are only at like 55 million in guaranteed money, Which basically means we need to spend a minimum of 20 million in free agency or via trade to meet our minimum budget. This year carrying questionable guys and Uggla's money effects that. Next year those guys are all gone but CJ.

To me using that money on Justin or Jaosn is the smartest move.

Trade Maybin for whatever we can get sign Jason or Justin. OF has Smith in CF assuming he keeps up his production, if not you have other options, you have Markakis in LF if we ssign Jason or Justin in LF. Whatever works out. Whoever the easier buy is. And if we want to we can sign an older pitchert to a show me contract. CLiff Lee being a perfect option for that if the Phillies opt not to do the same.
 
Hawk said:
I wonder if Heyward's agents will seek a pillow contract for 2016 if his value stagnates. He's still so young that a monster year could easily net him $250MM plus. Then again, if no monster year ever comes they are left holding a pretty empty bag.
Click to expand...

I think if he stays around where he is now he signs like a 3/40 type of deal maybe a little more. Something that gives him some guaranteed money, but he'll still have another FA in his 20s.
 
zitothebrave said:
Here's my deal. We have a lot of money to play with this offseason. The premium FAs are Heyward, Justin, Fowler, Cueto, Zimmerman and Price. With some other likely expensive signings including Samardzija, Gallardo, Lincecum, and a few other pitchers with good career numbers but questions.

We're gonna have a lot of money to play with. Assuming we don't get options on several guys who shouldn't have their options picked up like Cahill and Gomes, we are only at like 55 million in guaranteed money, Which basically means we need to spend a minimum of 20 million in free agency or via trade to meet our minimum budget. This year carrying questionable guys and Uggla's money effects that. Next year those guys are all gone but CJ.

To me using that money on Justin or Jaosn is the smartest move.

Trade Maybin for whatever we can get sign Jason or Justin. OF has Smith in CF assuming he keeps up his production, if not you have other options, you have Markakis in LF if we ssign Jason or Justin in LF. Whatever works out. Whoever the easier buy is. And if we want to we can sign an older pitchert to a show me contract. CLiff Lee being a perfect option for that if the Phillies opt not to do the same.
Click to expand...

Unless Jason's contract demands lower, i dont see them signing him.

Justin is a better bet, even that is unlikely given where he trains.

I do agree that we have a ton of money to spend this winter, only 66 mil in contracts per spotract and thats not counting guys like Cahill, Grilli, CJ being dealt to give it any more.

I wouldnt mind Cespedes if Detroit doesnt keep him.
 
As long as somebody else pays him, I could care less what he gets personally.

Play with the numbers all you want Zito - the Cardinals (and the Braves as a matter of fact) are winning in spite of him, not because of him.
 
Unless Jason proves that he can be an above average hitter for the remainder if the tear I don't think Jason sees more than 15 per year.
 
clvclv said:
As long as somebody else pays him, I could care less what he gets personally.

Play with the numbers all you want Zito - the Cardinals (and the Braves as a matter of fact) are winning in spite of him, not because of him.
Click to expand...

There's no numbers to play with. The Braves won a lot with Jason Heyward. Infact without 2 epic collapses the Braves would have been in the playoffs every year Jason was on the team. DOn't give me BS about the Braves winning in spite of him.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top