Yet, only slightly lower than his overall career average. Which makes sense,when you play most of your career in Houston and Arizona.
Spring Training Gamethread/Discussion
- Thread starter BremanFan88
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Yet, only slightly lower than his overall career average. Which makes sense,when you play most of your career in Houston and Arizona.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/chris-johnson-surprise-avg-crown-contender/
When we think of batting crown contenders, we have an image in our minds of a high contact line drive hitter who sprays the ball to all fields. Good power certainly helps as home runs are hits and don’t factor into BABIP, so hitting home runs are an easy way to boost batting average without requiring an increase in BABIP. Speed also helps as it could lead to a greater rate of infield hits and even bunt hits. Chris Johnson isn’t exactly the picture of a batting average leader, and yet, he finished second in the National League with a .321 mark, which ranked fifth in baseball.
But, Johnson makes below average contact, as his Contact%, SwStk% and K% were all worse than the league average, what little speed he had completely disappeared (no steal attemps and no triples) and his power output was mediocre having posted just a .136 ISO. Despite the majority of his skills suggesting a lower batting average, he has now hit above .300 twice and sports a career .289 mark. How has he continued this magical act?
The obvious reason why he was able to record a career high in batting average was because of his .394 BABIP. That mark led baseball and ranked third highest in the past 10 years. His career BABIP now stands at an impressive .361. We talk a lot about how Joey Votto has become the model for a high BABIP hitter given his batted ball distribution. Let’s compare Johnson’s to Votto’s without the names.
LD% GB% FB% IFFB% Pull% Center% Oppo%
Player A 27.0% 45.5% 27.5% 4.5% 32% 40% 28%
Player B 27.2% 43.7% 29.2% 0.8% 32% 32% 36%
These are very similar batted ball profiles. Without any additional information, it would appear that Player B’s is a bit more attractive as he hits fewer pop-ups and has a slightly more balanced batted ball direction mix. Player B is in fact Mr. Votto. But Johnson isn’t far behind as he goes up the middle frequently and alternates hitting it to the pull field with going the opposite way.
This type of batted ball mix is the exact recipe for an inflated BABIP. Johnson’s xBABIP (which remember, does not include batted ball direction yet) was .343, which although is a far cry from .394, likely ranks as one of the highest in baseball. It is important to remember that formulas like xBABIP factor in lots of regression and so they will usually miss on the extremes. Obviously no one should expect another .390+ BABIP, but he clearly has the swing to produce a consistently high mark.
Unfortunately, he still isn’t all that attractive if he’s just an empty batting average at third base. You want power from your corner infielder and Johnson hit just 12 homers this season. Of course, one of the issues is exactly what Votto “suffers” from. They are too busy whacking balls all over the field that they just haven’t been able to get the type of lift they need to hit lots of balls over the wall. This is perfectly fine in real baseball, but not necessarily so in fantasy where home runs are one of just five categories.
The good news is that Johnson’s average batted ball distance was 289 feet, which is well above average and should match with a much higher HR/FB rate than the low teens. More fly balls would also help and in 2012, he may have shown the best possible combination for fantasy owners. His FB% was 35%, but he still maintained a good batted ball mix that would lead to a high BABIP. If he didn’t strike out 25% of the time, he could have batted .300 that year as well, but with more power.
That’s the hope here — that his batted ball mix looks more like 2012, he sustains his strikeout rate gains from 2013 and his HR/FB rate surges to match his batted ball distance. It’s a lot to ask for, but not out of the realm of possibility. That upside could be a .300 average with 20 homers, somewhat similar to what David Freese owners thought they would be getting this year. That’s still not great though and the risk is that his batting average tumbles without a measurable jump in power. He ranked 14th among third basemen this year in fantasy value and that may make him too expensive to bother with.
When we think of batting crown contenders, we have an image in our minds of a high contact line drive hitter who sprays the ball to all fields. Good power certainly helps as home runs are hits and don’t factor into BABIP, so hitting home runs are an easy way to boost batting average without requiring an increase in BABIP. Speed also helps as it could lead to a greater rate of infield hits and even bunt hits. Chris Johnson isn’t exactly the picture of a batting average leader, and yet, he finished second in the National League with a .321 mark, which ranked fifth in baseball.
But, Johnson makes below average contact, as his Contact%, SwStk% and K% were all worse than the league average, what little speed he had completely disappeared (no steal attemps and no triples) and his power output was mediocre having posted just a .136 ISO. Despite the majority of his skills suggesting a lower batting average, he has now hit above .300 twice and sports a career .289 mark. How has he continued this magical act?
The obvious reason why he was able to record a career high in batting average was because of his .394 BABIP. That mark led baseball and ranked third highest in the past 10 years. His career BABIP now stands at an impressive .361. We talk a lot about how Joey Votto has become the model for a high BABIP hitter given his batted ball distribution. Let’s compare Johnson’s to Votto’s without the names.
LD% GB% FB% IFFB% Pull% Center% Oppo%
Player A 27.0% 45.5% 27.5% 4.5% 32% 40% 28%
Player B 27.2% 43.7% 29.2% 0.8% 32% 32% 36%
These are very similar batted ball profiles. Without any additional information, it would appear that Player B’s is a bit more attractive as he hits fewer pop-ups and has a slightly more balanced batted ball direction mix. Player B is in fact Mr. Votto. But Johnson isn’t far behind as he goes up the middle frequently and alternates hitting it to the pull field with going the opposite way.
This type of batted ball mix is the exact recipe for an inflated BABIP. Johnson’s xBABIP (which remember, does not include batted ball direction yet) was .343, which although is a far cry from .394, likely ranks as one of the highest in baseball. It is important to remember that formulas like xBABIP factor in lots of regression and so they will usually miss on the extremes. Obviously no one should expect another .390+ BABIP, but he clearly has the swing to produce a consistently high mark.
Unfortunately, he still isn’t all that attractive if he’s just an empty batting average at third base. You want power from your corner infielder and Johnson hit just 12 homers this season. Of course, one of the issues is exactly what Votto “suffers” from. They are too busy whacking balls all over the field that they just haven’t been able to get the type of lift they need to hit lots of balls over the wall. This is perfectly fine in real baseball, but not necessarily so in fantasy where home runs are one of just five categories.
The good news is that Johnson’s average batted ball distance was 289 feet, which is well above average and should match with a much higher HR/FB rate than the low teens. More fly balls would also help and in 2012, he may have shown the best possible combination for fantasy owners. His FB% was 35%, but he still maintained a good batted ball mix that would lead to a high BABIP. If he didn’t strike out 25% of the time, he could have batted .300 that year as well, but with more power.
That’s the hope here — that his batted ball mix looks more like 2012, he sustains his strikeout rate gains from 2013 and his HR/FB rate surges to match his batted ball distance. It’s a lot to ask for, but not out of the realm of possibility. That upside could be a .300 average with 20 homers, somewhat similar to what David Freese owners thought they would be getting this year. That’s still not great though and the risk is that his batting average tumbles without a measurable jump in power. He ranked 14th among third basemen this year in fantasy value and that may make him too expensive to bother with.
Dalyn
Fredi Gonzalez Supporter
Okay.
Dalyn
Fredi Gonzalez Supporter
Right. Unfortunately, Fredi has trouble distinguishing between the Upton brothers.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Likewise. Then, if after a month or so, Johnson is really struggling compared to last season and/or one/both of Gattis and Uggla are really slugging, you consider reshuffling.
I also really think Upton, even if he bounces back to that .250-average-with-power level, should hit ninth.
The bolded section is, IMHO the most important. We are playing real Baseball, not just Fantasy Baseball. A guy who can keep putting the ball in play where it cannot be caught is incredibly valuable in real baseball.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think Johnson's BABIP will drop, but he will hit more home runs. The big questions to me are what happens to his walk and strikeout rates. Ideally he sustains the improvement in the strikeout rate and is able to push up the walk rate. That's the ideal, but I don't know if its the most likely outcome.
Of the Uggla, Gattis, Johnson group I would go with Johnson/Uggla for cleanup. You can make a compelling case for both. Johnson should get more hits overall but Uggla should have more damage with the hits that he has. So pick which ever one you think scores more runs. These things usually have a way of sorting themselves out though during the season. If Johnson still posts a high BABIP he will likely hit 4th to knock Heyard, Upton, and Freeman in. If his BABIP drops like some see it and Uggla has something left (his spring has been very encouraging) then he will get bumped up. It's really hard to predict the perfect lineup going into a season (although you can have really good guesses) due to players who will have up or down years. But once the season is going changes can/will be made to make your lineup work the best and I bet that is what will happen this year. Whether Fredi is slow to make that change is another topic all together.
mossy
<B>Hysterical Girlfriend<BR>That Storms Out and</B
Agree with everything here but BJ batting ninth. I suppose I need to see him improve over a month or so before having a clue where id put him in any part of the lineup for good.
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
BJ should be batting 10th.
rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
Breaking down the Wednesday box (9-2 thrashing of Marlins)
Teheran 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K!!
Bullpen superb again: Severino, Walden 1 IP, 2 H, 2 K, Carpenter all scoreless inning
Why, however, is Severino still here???
Irrelevant headline: Derrick Mitchell 3B, 4 RBIs. Should be fixture in Gwinnett OF
Much more important headline: Pastornicky 2-3, BB, 3 RBI (played 2B)
Mejia 1-1, 2B (.316). Would be abetter bench if he were on it.
Doumit 2-3, 2B, RBI (.286)
Gattis 1-3, 2B, RBI
And every time I give up on Schafer, he does things like today's 2-4, 2 R, 2 Ks..
Teheran 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K!!
Bullpen superb again: Severino, Walden 1 IP, 2 H, 2 K, Carpenter all scoreless inning
Why, however, is Severino still here???
Irrelevant headline: Derrick Mitchell 3B, 4 RBIs. Should be fixture in Gwinnett OF
Much more important headline: Pastornicky 2-3, BB, 3 RBI (played 2B)
Mejia 1-1, 2B (.316). Would be abetter bench if he were on it.
Doumit 2-3, 2B, RBI (.286)
Gattis 1-3, 2B, RBI
And every time I give up on Schafer, he does things like today's 2-4, 2 R, 2 Ks..
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
Schafer isn't going anywhere at least I hope. He is a great base runner and can play the outfield. I know Pastor could fill in in center. Not sure about the corner spots. Schafer provides the team a late inning defensive replacing and a speed guy on the bases.
Dalyn
Fredi Gonzalez Supporter
We have other guys who can do the same for cheaper.
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
As for the lineup debate. I want this one at least initially.
Jason
Justin
Freddie
CJ
Gattis
Simba
Uggla
Pitcher
BJ
We can't afford to have Gattis, Uggla, and BJ bat in a row. These three in a row no matter what their order is spells bad news.
Jason
Justin
Freddie
CJ
Gattis
Simba
Uggla
Pitcher
BJ
We can't afford to have Gattis, Uggla, and BJ bat in a row. These three in a row no matter what their order is spells bad news.
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
Who can play anywhere in the outfield and run as well as he Jordan? Besides he is guaranteed his salary anywhere?
AUTiger7222
Called Up to the Major Leagues
No but you do see different pitches hitting in different spots in the order and some hitters are better fastball hitters than breaking ball hitters while other hitters are better breaking ball hitters than fastball hitters. BJ is a better fastball hitter than he is a breaking ball hitter and being in the 2nd spot gets him more fastballs. I believe that is why he has his best career numbers hitting in that spot in the lineup.
AUTiger7222
Called Up to the Major Leagues
The one player I always think of that had a pretty major split in his numbers in a large number of plate appearances is Brian Jordan.
Hitting 4th - .297/.351/.478 (.829) in 2310 PA
Hitting 5th - .271/.321/.447 (.768) in 1538 PA
That's really odd to me because there's very little difference between hitting 4th and hitting 5th.
