Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
While I generally applaud what has been done so far (the Olivera deal being the biggest issue that I have), I just don't want to see the Braves stop now at a position that I believe will be premature. I think the Braves still have movable assets that will help the rebuild long term and the difference between them staying for improved 2016 play versus going for improved 2017-18 play isn't enough to make me blink. I just don't see 78 wins as opposed to 68 wins being any better of a 2016.
I look at the rebuild and the current team and see a few things:
1. Freeman, since he apparently isn't available to be traded, is being counted on as the LH anchor of the lineup, now and for 17,18 and 19 at least. So he's one power LH anchor. The system has a couple of other potentials in Ruiz and Davidson, although both have huge questions. There isn't really anything else, ML or minor league above low A. In fact, it's entirely possible that Freeman is the only true ML LH power bat on the Braves in 2017, 18 and 19 without looking at outside acquisition.
2. Olivera was brought in to be the RH version of Freeman. I'm not saying he WILL be but that he was projected to be. Nothing else makes sense. When he takes his first swing in 2016, he will already be 3 years past his baseball age prime. By the time the Braves new assets (acquired recently through trade and draft) are ready, Olivera will be mid 30's. Dubious to say the least which means he's probably a complete flop or, if not, is moved in the next two years to a win now team looking for that last over the hump piece. I can't see any way he's very effective at 35. Which is concerning since the Braves have NO current ML core RH bats and little that could be viewed as such at the minor league level. Swanson likely will be a core player but may be more of an all around guy or LO hitter than a slugging middle of the order producer. After that, about all you have is fairly disappointing Dustin Peterson and a very long way away Austin Riley above rookie league ball.
3. On the bright side, the pitching acquired looks to provide a selection that a very nice rotation and pen can be constructed with. I would say the pitching has been addressed well.
4. There are a few nice top of the order bats who won't slug much but are likely to get on base and score runs ahead of sluggers if the Braves can ever find any. Guys like Albies, Smith, maybe Swanson (although I have hope that he will hit well enough to be a #3) are all possible for LO. And then there is Inciarte.
So, having said that, I have hopes that the Braves will continue to churn. Some examples of what I would LIKE to see (I don't limit to these exact deals, but use them as examples):
1. Teheran and Inciarte to the Cubs for Soler, Baez, Eloy Jimenez. The Cubs desperately need Inciarte. They can't be serious about Heyward in center and Schwarber in LF and the whole convert Baez into a CF is just dumb for a team who has a real shot at a WS title. Their rotation isn't great either after their first three and I have to wonder about Lackey's ability to back up last year. They can afford to move all three of the players from their side with Heyward sliding into RF. They also have Gleyber Torres in A ball who will be a MI, likely taking over from Zobrist in a couple of years. For the Braves, it bring three RH power bats who have one year or less service time. The Braves could slide Soler into RF and Baez into ss THIS YEAR and, if they continue to develop, have them as RH core production bats in 17,18 and 19, all at a relatively affordable cost.
2. With Soler slated for RF, that means Markakis is expendable. About the only place he would have value right now is Baltimore, where he has a strong fan base, including the manager. I don't think you could get much and certainly nothing that will help in 2016, but moving his contract has value in itself. Maybe best case would be Markakis for 3B Jomar Reyes or catcher Chance Sisco.
3. With Baez starting every day at ss, then that makes Aybar expendable. Aybar is more valuable than Markais because he has a better contract. But, his possible homes are about as limited. To me, the best two locations are likely Pittsburgh and Chicago WS, with the Sox being a more likely destination. I could see Aybar to the sox for a package along the lines of OF Miker Adolfo and 2B Jake Peter. Aybar gives the WS a bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson while they try to compete in 2016.
4. The Braves then sign a couple of high risk/high return guys for the rotation like Latos, Minor or Lincecum OR spend for Yaisel Sierra.
You play Bourn and Swisher as much as possible early to see if you can develop some value and trade them. If they don't then you can cut them and bring up Mallex Smith at mid season and give him a try. I would see the team being:
CF - Bourn
2B - Beckham/Peterson Platoon
SS - Baez
1B - Freeman
RF - Soler
3B - Garcia/Johnson Platoon
LF - Swisher/Olivera
C - Flowers/AJ
Bench: Beckham/Peterson, Garcia/Johnson, Swisher/Olivera, Flowers/AJ, Bonifacio, Castro
M Smith up for Bourn at mid season because either Bourn is traded or released by then.
Swisher traded, released or relegated to bench role at mid season.
Rotation: Norris, Latos, Wisler, Banuelos, Floty (concentrate on developing Wisler, Manban, Folty, use Latos and Norris for trade is valuable, park Newcomb, Jenkins, Blair, Sims, Ellis, Gant at AAA)
Pen: Viz, Grilli, Johnson, Krol, Winkler, McKirahan (start the year with those who don't have options and see what you have. Park Marksberry, Simmons, etc in the minors until needed)
This team is likely a little worse than the "stand pat" team that keeps Teheran, Inciarte, Aybar and Markakis for 2016 but not by enough games to make any kind of difference.
However, MAKING the moves brings in a number of useful long term bats to mix in with the pitching already acquired AND moves more payroll to allow for additional flexibility be it more international signings or FA signings in 2016 and 2017.
The 2017 team COULD start: CF M Smith, 2B Peterson, 3B Baez, 1B Freeman, RF Soler, LF Olivera, SS Swanson, C Flowers with Davidson and Albies knocking on the door of LF and 2B respectively. And of course the rotation could be: Newcomb, Wisler, Blair, Folty, ManBan (or Sims or Fried or Jenkins or a FA signing)
The only guys on that team that would cost anything would be Freeman and Olivera which leaves a lot of flexibility to add from outside or tie up current guys long term.
I look at the rebuild and the current team and see a few things:
1. Freeman, since he apparently isn't available to be traded, is being counted on as the LH anchor of the lineup, now and for 17,18 and 19 at least. So he's one power LH anchor. The system has a couple of other potentials in Ruiz and Davidson, although both have huge questions. There isn't really anything else, ML or minor league above low A. In fact, it's entirely possible that Freeman is the only true ML LH power bat on the Braves in 2017, 18 and 19 without looking at outside acquisition.
2. Olivera was brought in to be the RH version of Freeman. I'm not saying he WILL be but that he was projected to be. Nothing else makes sense. When he takes his first swing in 2016, he will already be 3 years past his baseball age prime. By the time the Braves new assets (acquired recently through trade and draft) are ready, Olivera will be mid 30's. Dubious to say the least which means he's probably a complete flop or, if not, is moved in the next two years to a win now team looking for that last over the hump piece. I can't see any way he's very effective at 35. Which is concerning since the Braves have NO current ML core RH bats and little that could be viewed as such at the minor league level. Swanson likely will be a core player but may be more of an all around guy or LO hitter than a slugging middle of the order producer. After that, about all you have is fairly disappointing Dustin Peterson and a very long way away Austin Riley above rookie league ball.
3. On the bright side, the pitching acquired looks to provide a selection that a very nice rotation and pen can be constructed with. I would say the pitching has been addressed well.
4. There are a few nice top of the order bats who won't slug much but are likely to get on base and score runs ahead of sluggers if the Braves can ever find any. Guys like Albies, Smith, maybe Swanson (although I have hope that he will hit well enough to be a #3) are all possible for LO. And then there is Inciarte.
So, having said that, I have hopes that the Braves will continue to churn. Some examples of what I would LIKE to see (I don't limit to these exact deals, but use them as examples):
1. Teheran and Inciarte to the Cubs for Soler, Baez, Eloy Jimenez. The Cubs desperately need Inciarte. They can't be serious about Heyward in center and Schwarber in LF and the whole convert Baez into a CF is just dumb for a team who has a real shot at a WS title. Their rotation isn't great either after their first three and I have to wonder about Lackey's ability to back up last year. They can afford to move all three of the players from their side with Heyward sliding into RF. They also have Gleyber Torres in A ball who will be a MI, likely taking over from Zobrist in a couple of years. For the Braves, it bring three RH power bats who have one year or less service time. The Braves could slide Soler into RF and Baez into ss THIS YEAR and, if they continue to develop, have them as RH core production bats in 17,18 and 19, all at a relatively affordable cost.
2. With Soler slated for RF, that means Markakis is expendable. About the only place he would have value right now is Baltimore, where he has a strong fan base, including the manager. I don't think you could get much and certainly nothing that will help in 2016, but moving his contract has value in itself. Maybe best case would be Markakis for 3B Jomar Reyes or catcher Chance Sisco.
3. With Baez starting every day at ss, then that makes Aybar expendable. Aybar is more valuable than Markais because he has a better contract. But, his possible homes are about as limited. To me, the best two locations are likely Pittsburgh and Chicago WS, with the Sox being a more likely destination. I could see Aybar to the sox for a package along the lines of OF Miker Adolfo and 2B Jake Peter. Aybar gives the WS a bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson while they try to compete in 2016.
4. The Braves then sign a couple of high risk/high return guys for the rotation like Latos, Minor or Lincecum OR spend for Yaisel Sierra.
You play Bourn and Swisher as much as possible early to see if you can develop some value and trade them. If they don't then you can cut them and bring up Mallex Smith at mid season and give him a try. I would see the team being:
CF - Bourn
2B - Beckham/Peterson Platoon
SS - Baez
1B - Freeman
RF - Soler
3B - Garcia/Johnson Platoon
LF - Swisher/Olivera
C - Flowers/AJ
Bench: Beckham/Peterson, Garcia/Johnson, Swisher/Olivera, Flowers/AJ, Bonifacio, Castro
M Smith up for Bourn at mid season because either Bourn is traded or released by then.
Swisher traded, released or relegated to bench role at mid season.
Rotation: Norris, Latos, Wisler, Banuelos, Floty (concentrate on developing Wisler, Manban, Folty, use Latos and Norris for trade is valuable, park Newcomb, Jenkins, Blair, Sims, Ellis, Gant at AAA)
Pen: Viz, Grilli, Johnson, Krol, Winkler, McKirahan (start the year with those who don't have options and see what you have. Park Marksberry, Simmons, etc in the minors until needed)
This team is likely a little worse than the "stand pat" team that keeps Teheran, Inciarte, Aybar and Markakis for 2016 but not by enough games to make any kind of difference.
However, MAKING the moves brings in a number of useful long term bats to mix in with the pitching already acquired AND moves more payroll to allow for additional flexibility be it more international signings or FA signings in 2016 and 2017.
The 2017 team COULD start: CF M Smith, 2B Peterson, 3B Baez, 1B Freeman, RF Soler, LF Olivera, SS Swanson, C Flowers with Davidson and Albies knocking on the door of LF and 2B respectively. And of course the rotation could be: Newcomb, Wisler, Blair, Folty, ManBan (or Sims or Fried or Jenkins or a FA signing)
The only guys on that team that would cost anything would be Freeman and Olivera which leaves a lot of flexibility to add from outside or tie up current guys long term.
