Talkin' 'bout all extensions thread

thewupk said:
To keep him long term. You aren't going to be able to low ball players like that anymore. Look at the contract Freeman got. It's exactly like this what I proposed for Minor. To get any sort of real discount on a players free agency years you will need to sign them a year or two after they have been in the majors like we did with Julio and Simmons.

And if you let him go year to year then there is virtually no way to keep him long term without paying then current market value which will likely be higher.
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Freeman imo projects to be 1 WAR per year better than Minor. So if you want to use Freeman as a baseline (and I actually think we should require a bigger discount from Minor but lets set that aside) you need to scale down Freeman's free agency years salary down by about 6M per year to get comparable value with Minor. In addition, the numbers you propose in Minor's last arb year just looks to high relative to his open market value.
 
skillet said:
2014 - $4MM
2015 - $6MM
2016 - $8MM
2017 - $10MM
2018 - $12MM
2019 - $13MM

For a 6 year, $53MM deal. If he would take that deal I would do it, if not I'd go year to year.
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This is much more reasonable, but at the outer limits of what the club should consider.
 
nsacpi said:
Freeman imo projects to be 1 WAR per year better than Minor. So if you want to use Freeman as a baseline (and I actually think we should require a bigger discount from Minor but lets set that aside) you need to scale down Freeman's free agency years salary down by about 6M per year to get comparable value with Minor. In addition, the numbers you propose in Minor's last arb year just looks to high relative to his open market value.
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Freeman is making 21.3 million in FA. In my proposed Minor deal he would be making 17.75 or 16.83 depending on the option. If Freeman is a 1 WAR better then 3.5 -4.5 less for Minor isn't that much of a reach. Especially when it's signed a year later. Salaries have been escalating that quickly the past couple of years. Generally adding 1 million per WAR each year the last 2 years. I would normally agree the last arb year would be too high but with him being a super 2 it's going to rise that quickly.
 
thewupk said:
Freeman is making 21.3 million in FA. In my proposed Minor deal he would be making 17.75 or 16.83 depending on the option. If Freeman is a 1 WAR better then 3.5 -4.5 less for Minor isn't that much of a reach. Especially when it's signed a year later. Salaries have been escalating that quickly the past couple of years. Generally adding 1 million per WAR each year the last 2 years. I would normally agree the last arb year would be too high but with him being a super 2 it's going to rise that quickly.
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I don't disagree with the 3.5 WAR for Minor if he is healthy. But with pitchers, there needs to be more of a discount because of higher injury risk. Also Minor is four years away from free agency while Freeman is only three, although as you note that would not be the case if the deal is signed a year from now. Finally, our farm system is much deeper in pitching than first baseman, which also calls for a bigger discount. So as I noted, we should be asking Minor for a significantly larger discount than we asked from Freeman.
 
nsacpi said:
I don't disagree with the 3.5 WAR for Minor if he is healthy. But with pitchers, there needs to be more of a discount because of higher injury risk. Also Minor is four years away from free agency while Freeman is only three, although as you note that would not be the case if the deal is signed a year from now. Finally, our farm system is much deeper in pitching than first baseman, which also calls for a bigger discount. So as I noted, we should be asking Minor for a significantly larger discount than we asked from Freeman.
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I can see that. And I think it's likely that the Braves either try to get a really team friendly deal or just play it out year by year. Minor would still be here in 2017 when then new stadium opened which is what I really think the Braves are trying to do. Keep all of their core for that season at the least. And as you said the Braves have been able to replace starters pretty well for the most part lately. So there is no need to really burden the finances with a market value pitcher if the farm can replace it for similar production. But I honestly don't see Minor going for that if he has another good year after watching Bailey get his huge deal.
 
I'd like to see Minor stay. It was interesting what Kimbrel said. Hopefully these other guys take slightly less than market value to be apart of the core.
 
I'm as happy as the next guy about signing our best young guys to extensions, but there has to be a limit right? The more young guys we sign, the greater the possibility of having bad contracts later on. Let's say we have 7 or 8 of the young guys locked up by next year this time. What happens if 3 of those guys end up with career altering injuries or just plain suck and not get better. We could have around 40-50 million tied up in players who aren't helping the team win.
Yes, the chances of that happening are slim, but you know it could happen.
 
gtcway said:
I'm as happy as the next guy about signing our best young guys to extensions, but there has to be a limit right? The more young guys we sign, the greater the possibility of having bad contracts later on. Let's say we have 7 or 8 of the young guys locked up by next year this time. What happens if 3 of those guys end up with career altering injuries or just plain suck and not get better. We could have around 40-50 million tied up in players who aren't helping the team win.
Yes, the chances of that happening are slim, but you know it could happen.
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There is upside and downside to each contract. But as you increase the # of long-term contracts you lose some flexibility.

One thing they've done so far is to stagger when the contracts expire so each year they can half some money coming off the books.

BJ goes through 2017.

Kimbrel goes through 2017 or 2018.

Teheran goes through 2019 or 2020.

Simmons goes through 2020.

Freeman goes through 2021.

If and when they do a long-term deal with Heyward, my guess is it will go a year beyond Freeman's.
 
nsacpi said:
There is upside and downside to each contract. But as you increase the # of long-term contracts you lose some flexibility.

One thing they've done so far is to stagger when the contracts expire so each year they can half some money coming off the books.

BJ goes through 2017.

Kimbrel goes through 2017 or 2018.

Teheran goes through 2019 or 2020.

Simmons goes through 2020.

Freeman goes through 2021.

If and when they do a long-term deal with Heyward, my guess is it will go a year beyond Freeman's.
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John Hart said in his interview that you actually gain some flexibility because you know exactly how much money you have committed to certain number of guys over the course of x number of years, that allows you to move guys and money around to fill out your roster each year.
 
The greatest strength of all these deals is the prime ages of the guys we've locked up.

1. Freeman - 24 through 31
2. Teheran - 23 through 28, option for 29
3. Simmons - 24 through 30
4. Kimbrel - 26 through 29, option for 30
 
AUTiger7222 said:
John Hart said in his interview that you actually gain some flexibility because you know exactly how much money you have committed to certain number of guys over the course of x number of years, that allows you to move guys and money around to fill out your roster each year.
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Up to a point.

Hart also said this:

"You don't want to ever get to where you can't finish the deal on a core player because you're tied down on something that you might be able to fix within."

There are always trade-offs and they get more acute once you get past the guys that are obvious parts of the core. For example, at the point we are at right now, do you lock up Minor or Justin Upton. I think one consideration is to look at what you have on the farm and try to judge which one's departure would be something that "you might be able to fix within" as Hart puts it.
 
skillet said:
The greatest strength of all these deals is the prime ages of the guys we've locked up.

1. Freeman - 24 through 31
2. Teheran - 23 through 28, option for 29
3. Simmons - 24 through 30
4. Kimbrel - 26 through 29, option for 30
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That's what makes an extension for Minor iffy anyways. He is already under team control through age 29. I think what's more likely is to just see a 3 year deal next year buying out his remaining arby years so we have them at a set cost.
 
thewupk said:
That's what makes an extension for Minor iffy anyways. He is already under team control through age 29. I think what's more likely is to just see a 3 year deal next year buying out his remaining arby years so we have them at a set cost.
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Good point. Minor had his first full major league season at an older age than the four guys who we extended. You want to extend the guys who hit free agency at a young age. Basically, the guys who played their first full season at age 23 or younger. Wood btw is 23 this season. Minor's first full season was 2012 at age 24. So any extension takes him into his age 30 season and beyond.
 
nsacpi said:
Up to a point.

Hart also said this:

"You don't want to ever get to where you can't finish the deal on a core player because you're tied down on something that you might be able to fix within."

There are always trade-offs and they get more acute once you get past the guys that are obvious parts of the core. For example, at the point we are at right now, do you lock up Minor or Justin Upton. I think one consideration is to look at what you have on the farm and try to judge which one's departure would be something that "you might be able to fix within" as Hart puts it.
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Yeah, Justin is more valuable right now than Minor because of what's in the farm system versus what isn't. But I'm one of those guys that will always value pitching over offense because of the playoffs.
 
http://battingleadoff.com/2014/02/20/extensions-market-efficiency/

Pretty good, simplistic look at the potential value of these extensions, of which I think is at least a decent approximation of value (does not include the Simmons deal). Notice how we might be slightly overpaying in the early years, but have a good bit of surplus value later in the contracts. Also, it doesn't have Teheran's 2020 $12M team option nor Kimbrel's 2018 $13M team option, which if included, would add a lot more surplus value. In this article, it has us saving $70MM over the life of the combined contracts, which as I noted does not include the surplus value of the options.
 
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