The Trump Presidency

thethe said:
You guys think that if Obama economic policies were continues we would see this type of investment? Geez...
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We'll see in six months. My guess most of the gains in this report would have happened whomever was President. Growth has been happening for 84 straight months. Granted it started at a low bar, but the economy runs on its own rhythms. Presidents of all stripes try to take credit for long-term economic performance, but that basically isn't the case. The investments taking place now won't yield job results in the short term. Businesses don't just start hiring people out of left field.
 
Forever Fredi said:
February 2016: 237k jobs

February 2015: 238k jobs

235k for him and it's very real.
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Let's talk about wage growth and types of jobs that were created. It's undeniable that there has been positive reaction to what is seen as a pro business administration following one that was not.
 
50PoundHead said:
We'll see in six months. My guess most of the gains in this report would have happened whomever was President. Growth has been happening for 84 straight months. Granted it started at a low bar, but the economy runs on its own rhythms. Presidents of all stripes try to take credit for long-term economic performance, but that basically isn't the case.
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No president creates jobs. It's all about creating an environment which makes it beneficial for businesses to invest in america. That is clearly happening right now and it's been a big surge since election day.
 
is it confirmed yet that the Wikileaks server is hosted in Russia?

see a few places talking about Peter Chayanov
 
Forever Fredi said:
February 2016: 237k jobs

February 2015: 238k jobs

235k for him and it's very real.
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This is from Bloomberg:

"Private employment, which excludes government agencies, rose by 227,000 after a 221,000 increase the prior month. It was the biggest gain since July. Construction jobs, which can fluctuate depending on the weather, rose by 58,000, the strongest in almost a decade, and followed a 40,000 increase in January. Manufacturing payrolls gained 28,000, matching the most since August 2013. Meanwhile, retail positions fell by 26,000, the most in four years."

So basically real jobs are replacing the ****ty hamburger flipping jobs.
 
Garmel said:
This is from Bloomberg:

"Private employment, which excludes government agencies, rose by 227,000 after a 221,000 increase the prior month. It was the biggest gain since July. Construction jobs, which can fluctuate depending on the weather, rose by 58,000, the strongest in almost a decade, and followed a 40,000 increase in January. Manufacturing payrolls gained 28,000, matching the most since August 2013. Meanwhile, retail positions fell by 26,000, the most in four years."

So basically real jobs are replacing the ****ty hamburger flipping jobs.
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Well retail is in big trouble, which is echoed by the numbers. There should be some good jobs coming forward and some of that may be attributable to less regulation in the energy although I think the anticipated tax changes will be a mixed bag.

But we don't know what the healthcare situation is going to look like and if a bunch of people lose access to decent coverage, they'll be needing all this wage growth to pay for the higher premiums.
 
I'm not prepared to say that Trump shouldn't get any credit for this, because I don't know enough to say otherwise, and I'm willing to accept that optimism about deregulation and taxes might move the needle a little. That said, some of y'all (not naming any names, thethe) are being extremely disingenuous and obviously don't want to read a trendline. You can't conjure from nothing the idea that wages are suddenly growing because Trump is president. The data is out there for everyone to see.
 
Thursday, Politico reported that the forthcoming jobs report “will be the first to measure employment gains that occurred entirely under Trump’s presidency,” but “while Trump may claim credit, it’s not clear he will deserve it.”

“One of the most important elements of analyzing labor market reports is that they’re lagging indicators so they tend to be a reflection of what has been happening in the economy in the prior six months to a year,” Frances Donald, senior economist at Manulife Asset Management, told the publication. “The jobs numbers that we’ll see six months from now will probably be a better reflection of the new administration.”

It’s also curious that Trump is now embracing jobs reports, after repeatedly dismissing them last year as fake.

U.S. jobs report numbers "are phony anyway," Trump says http://bloom.bg/2em2m7G pic.twitter.com/F38Bob2EG0

If the president were honest, he’d be saying what all Americans should be saying about this good economic news: Thanks, Obama.
 
Julio3000 said:
I'm not prepared to say that Trump shouldn't get any credit for this, because I don't know enough to say otherwise, and I'm willing to accept that optimism about deregulation and taxes might move the needle a little. That said, some of y'all (not naming any names, thethe) are being extremely disingenuous and obviously don't want to read a trendline. You can't conjure from nothing the idea that wages are suddenly growing because Trump is president. The data is out there for everyone to see.
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All we have seen sick the election are companies will to move production back to the US in addition to commitments (all they are at this point) to increased investment in the tens of billions ofndollars. That is what low tax and lower regulations does.

I'm not sure if you are all familiar with the cost of compliance but a lot of companies (especially financial services) just can't operate in our previous environment. That leaves only big shops which hurts everyone because of reduced competition. This is going to be addressed with trumps agenda.
 
thethe said:
All we have seen sick the election are companies will to move production back to the US in addition to commitments (all they are at this point) to increased investment in the tens of billions ofndollars. That is what low tax and lower regulations does.

I'm not sure if you are all familiar with the cost of compliance but a lot of companies (especially financial services) just can't operate in our previous environment. That leaves only big shops which hurts everyone because of reduced competition. This is going to be addressed with trumps agenda.
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But all of that doesn't necessarily mean a bunch of great jobs are going to be created. And all isn't rosy. The housing market is overvalued and we saw what happened with the last bubble. If Dodd-Frank is repealed whole hog I am afraid we're going to see good money being thrown after bad in the credit market because if Bush/Obama bailed out the banks, I don't expect Trump to do anything differently. Of course compliance costs money, but lack of compliance injects greater risk into the economy and it doesn't take a whole lot of bad actors to put us back to where we were in 2008. I'm not saying the economy is going to go south, but I believe there are a ton of folks who believe Trump's policies will recoup the wealth the lost during the recession. I don't see that happening.
 
Julio3000 said:
I'm not prepared to say that Trump shouldn't get any credit for this, because I don't know enough to say otherwise, and I'm willing to accept that optimism about deregulation and taxes might move the needle a little. That said, some of y'all (not naming any names, thethe) are being extremely disingenuous and obviously don't want to read a trendline. You can't conjure from nothing the idea that wages are suddenly growing because Trump is president. The data is out there for everyone to see.
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Yep. This uptake we are experiencing is being artificially driven by optimism. It is worrisome because it could come crashing down, especially the stock market.
 
thethe said:
All we have seen sick the election are companies will to move production back to the US in addition to commitments (all they are at this point) to increased investment in the tens of billions ofndollars. That is what low tax and lower regulations does.

I'm not sure if you are all familiar with the cost of compliance but a lot of companies (especially financial services) just can't operate in our previous environment. That leaves only big shops which hurts everyone because of reduced competition. This is going to be addressed with trumps agenda.
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Sorry, but that's just silliness. Trump has been happy to glom onto some stuff that was already in the works, and gravytrain on some vague promises of future investment. Huge multinational corporations don't make major decisions on a dime. If you can point to something that's not window-dressing, be my guest.
 
Garmel said:
Yep. This uptake we are experiencing is being artificially driven by optimism. It is worrisome because it could come crashing down, especially the stock market.
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I think the stock market is overbought right now and is primed for a retrenchment at some point fairly soon. That's not Trump's doing any more than the current rally is, but that's the trap for folks touting the "Trump Rally." I just ask that they own the bear if they want to take credit for the bull.
 
Julio3000 said:
Sorry, but that's just silliness. Trump has been happy to glom onto some stuff that was already in the works, and gravytrain on some vague promises of future investment. Huge multinational corporations don't make major decisions on a dime. If you can point to something that's not window-dressing, be my guest.
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So it's not OK to assume that it's because of Trump's policies but OK to assume it was in the works.

More than likely these companies have plans for all types of potential scenarios one of which is when the US wakes up and realizes being anti business is foolish.
 
thethe said:
So it's not OK to assume that it's because of Trump's policies but OK to assume it was in the works.

More than likely these companies have plans for all types of potential scenarios one of which is when the US wakes up and realizes being anti business is foolish.
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No, I say that because some of the things Trump has taken credit for had previously been announced, or that the companies involved stated that plans had already been in the works. GM, Ford, Sprint, Fiat-Chysler, and WalMart all fall into this category, even though Trump took credit or all of them. To my knowledge, the Carrier deal negotiated by Pence's government is the only one of these announcements that is directly attributable to the administration.
 
50PoundHead said:
I'm ambivalent on both. Everyone seems to want complete transparency until they don't. Assange and Snowden are equal opportunity offenders. I don't subscribe completely to Plato's Noble Lie, but there's the old saying about there's two things you don't really want to watch (and I'm paraphrasing a bit) and that's sausage being made and government at work.

But for my fellow denizens on the left, Assange and all the Russia crap didn't lose the election for Hillary. Because I've been in politics, I found the revelations trite because all it really was was campaign insider talk, but I can imagine for someone whose never been involved in politics they would cause some dismay, which is why I say to the uninformed "Never watch The West Wing."
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Spot on.
 
Loretta Lynch‏ @IorettaIynch 3h3 hours ago

By firing Sally Yates & now Preet Bharara, Trump gives them a huge and sympathetic public profile to run against the GOP. Well done, POTUS.
83 replies 429 retweets 788 likes
 
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