yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
He didn't really rake the way Mallex has every year, and he was also much older, so not sure how it compares.
TOP 30 PROSPECTS: New Year's Eve Edition
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
He didn't really rake the way Mallex has every year, and he was also much older, so not sure how it compares.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Well, Daniel Castro doesn't really compare and you put him in there, so idk how many others don't compare, either. But there are lot of really, really good prospects in that list, and Mallex matches up with a few of them. So again: thank you.
That's odd since his average slash line is .321/.406/.472. In A+ he hit .302/.386/.460. In AA he hit .338/.419/.468
Daniel Castro is 22 and was hitting .389/.411/.444 at Mississippi.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Take a gander at the league leaderboards. I'm sure you'll see a name or two in every league that somewhat mirrors Mallex.
But that doesn't matter. What does matter is that I don't place a ton of stock in minor league numbers if the scouting report doesn't match. That doesn't mean I'm oblivious to Mallex's career trajectory or hate him or don't think he has a chance to succeed. I like Mallex! But he doesn't have the tools to warrant the comparisons being levied on him.
chop2chip
Well-known member
There you go.
Come. On.
I get that according to what he said, you can technically say he fits the criteria. But the two are nothing alike, and Castro didn't even have 100 PA in AA. And all of that is 100% BABIP-related.
This is a prime example of you taking one stance in one argument while using a different one elsewhere. If someone tried to speak highly of Castro's numbers anywhere else, you'd be the first to completely discount it. And it would be legitimate to do so.
The point is its common to have the number of Mallex Smith as a 21/22 year old in AA. Furthermore, it's common to have them and not be on the top 100 list.
Im not speaking highly of Castro at all. As a matter of fact, I'm supporting Chops point that it is common and just having those numbers in AA doesn't automatically put you on a top 100 list. If anything Castro having those numbers (or any of the roughly 9-11 others) supports the claim.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Yes and it's worse than some other non prospects. My point is that I (and that's me personally) rely on both scouting reports and statistics.
It's part of the reason why I don't really care about Jenkins low strikeout rate. Keith Law says that his stuff looks plus, so I'll take his performance with a grain of salt. I know some posters on this board say the same about Sims which also makes sense.
I will say this. Mallex hitting as well as he has isn't entirely worthless. We all should be extremely happy he is performing. The more tests he passes the more we can get excited about his future. Like Zito said, we no longer have to project him as a 4th outfielder. I think most of us on this board would love to see him get a chance at CF next year.
But my point is that their numbers really aren't comparable, not below the surface. And you would be the first to point that out.
And while there are some guys who aren't phenomenal prospects on your list, a majority are actually really, really good. And even a guy like Castro isn't too far away from a Jace Peterson in prospect status. Either way, what Mallex is doing can't be dismissed; it doesn't guarantee success but it's better than 'common'.
It certainly shouldn't be dismissed, it should be analyzed in context. There are reasons analysts aren't as highly on Smith as some posters on here (similar to the La Stella situation). If he can play good defense, and produce somewhere close to the top end of his "hit tool," he'll be a good starter.
By the way, can we just take a timeout to marvel at what Julio Urias is doing right now? He is thoroughly dominating AA as an 18-year-old, after thoroughly dominating A+ as a 17-year-old and thoroughly dominating A as a 16-year-old. I've literally never seen anything like what he is doing. He has to be the new #1 prospect in baseball, and I would put him there even if guys like Kris Bryant, Correa, and Buxton were still in the minors.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
Rio Ruiz has adjusted some over his last 65 at bats. He's hitting .277/.397/.338 over that span. Where has the power gone though? His batted ball profile suggests that he is rolling over the top of the ball a lot. His GB% has increased to 51% this year, and it hasn't been higher than 47% in any previous season. At 21, he's young for the league, but the power was one of his calling cards.
rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
You got to consider his home park, at least in part. Look at where Mississippi is as a team in relation to the rest of the Southern League. A player from Chattanooga has more homers by himself than the whole M-Braves team.
What a tremendous change of the future it would be if this kid turned into the player the front office thinks he can be.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I want to bump this because it's gold.
Just popped in to say I didn't realize you had ranked them, Rico. I appreciate you doing it and it's always fun to talk about.
My 2 cents: I think you have Mallex quite a bit too high, and I wouldn't be quite that aggressive on Allard yet. I think in terms of ceiling, he may be #1, but I'd wait until he starts pitching.
I like most of the list, but I do not get Herbert at 15, especially over Ruiz.
It may be time to talk about moving guys like Yepez and Acuna into the top 20-30 soon.
My 2 cents: I think you have Mallex quite a bit too high, and I wouldn't be quite that aggressive on Allard yet. I think in terms of ceiling, he may be #1, but I'd wait until he starts pitching.
I like most of the list, but I do not get Herbert at 15, especially over Ruiz.
It may be time to talk about moving guys like Yepez and Acuna into the top 20-30 soon.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
I want him to get back to pitching already. Have him in a dynasty league.