Trade one Keep One

thethe said:
I think Maybe certainly benefitted from pitchers who didn't want to walk Maybin and pitch to Freeman. Call me old fashioned.
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Well Maybin's BB rate is higher this year than at any point in his career. And he walked more in April and May then he has in June. So just going by that then the opposite has been true. Teams would rather walk Maybin to face Freddie. Now that Freddie is out they aren't walking him anymore.

The real truth is likely neither is true. Protection is overrated. The idea that a hitter will see more fastballs because they don't want to walk someone to face the hitter behind them is dumb imo. Because the more fastballs you see the better chances are that hitter will get a hit which is the opposite of what you would want to happen. Don't want to face a team's best hitter with someone on base. Get those players in front of them out. And that usually invovles not throwing them a ton of fastballs.
 
Heyward said:
They need pitching but they have McCarthy, Ryu coming back next year.

I doubt they give away their top hitting prospect.

And they could just as easily go with AGon-Seager-Guerrero/FA-Turner as their infield next year.
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I doubt they would trade him either, but with the money they spend they are in a different mindset than most franchises, you never know if they might value having a #1 type starter as their #3 to give them that world series push. I would imagine they would have Olivera at 2nd next year after spending the money on him, but who knows. But yeah, short term they could have Seager at SS.
 
auyushu said:
Pretty huge difference between Peraza and Prado is the amount of doubles. It's pretty common for guys who hit a ton of doubles like Prado did in the minors to have a few of them turn into homers as they mature. It's extremely rare for a guy who doesn't hit doubles or HRs in the minors to start hitting 10 HRs in the majors. I'd agree with you that it's ideal to have a player come up around their age 23-24 season though. You pretty much can get their peak value and not have to worry about extending them beyond their first deal, letting them walk at 30-32 depending on if you can get a couple of options.
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Comparing by level:

In Low A at age 19 Peraza had an ISO of .083. At age 20 Prado was at .107.

In High A at age 20 Peraza had an ISO of .113. At age 21 Prado was at .104.

In AA at age 20 Peraza had an ISO of .086. At age 21 Prado was at .084 (this was his first tour in AA). Next season at 22 his ISO in AA was .074.

In AAA at age 21 Peraza so far has an ISO of .078. In his first tour in AAA at age 22 Prado was at .083.

Prado did tend to hit more extra base hits, but Peraza's mix has more triples relative to doubles.
 
auyushu said:
I doubt they would trade him either, but with the money they spend they are in a different mindset than most franchises, you never know if they might value having a #1 type starter as their #3 to give them that world series push. I would imagine they would have Olivera at 2nd next year after spending the money on him, but who knows. But yeah, short term they could have Seager at SS.
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Greinke, Kersh, and Anderson is a solid top 3, but i'd imagine they trade for someone at the deadline to solidify the top 4.
 
nsacpi said:
Comparing by level:

In Low A at age 19 Peraza had an ISO of .083. At age 20 Prado was at .107.

In High A at age 20 Peraza had an ISO of .113. At age 21 Prado was at .104.

In AA at age 20 Peraza had an ISO of .086. At age 21 Prado was at .084 (this was his first tour in AA). Next season at 22 his ISO in AA was .074.

In AAA at age 21 Peraza so far has an ISO of .078. In his first tour in AAA at age 22 Prado was at .083.

Prado did tend to hit more extra base hits, but Peraza's mix has more triples relative to doubles.
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The ingredients baked into those ISO's are entirely different. Prado was never much a speedster, so his extra base hits were true gappers. Peraza likely gets a lot of his extra base hits via his speed.

I don't think it's fair to project a similar power increase for Peraza that Prado had in the big leagues.
 
nsacpi said:
Comparing by level:
Prado did tend to hit more extra base hits, but Peraza's mix has more triples relative to doubles.
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My point was more the difference in doubles (though Peraza did do much better in that regard last year). Even though Prado was only a 4-5 HR type a guy he was hitting 20-25 doubles from the start in the minors. And gapper doubles can easily turn into HRs with more strength, triples typically don't turn into HRs with more strength, those are more a target of positioning and speed. While their ISO may be similar, the HR potential is not quite the same I don't think. Honestly I see a good Prado comparison with Jace, not so much with Peraza. The only player I can think of right offhand that kind of made the transition from a 2 HR guy to a 10 HR for a stretch was Kenny Lofton, and he of course played in a much more HR friendly offensive era.
 
auyushu said:
You can get away with not having power at traditional positions only if you have power at non-traditional positions, which the Braves do not have. The Giants you are pointing out have Posey at catcher, which allows them to have less power at a traditional spot.

The simple fact of the matter is there has been no team in the past 30 years that has won a World Series with less that two 20 HR hitters in the lineup, and most have had at least 3 if not 4. The closest to come to not having that is the 2012 Giants, but even then they had Panda providing decent pop at 3B to go along with Posey and Pence. The last team to do so was the 1982 Cards, FWIW.

If we stick Peraza at 3B we aren't just having lesser power, we are having almost none at all. It's one thing to not have huge sluggers if you have okay power around the lineup (see the 2014 Giants, who had at least 10 HRs from 6 out of 8 positions), but it's quite another to be sub-10 homers in almost your entire lineup. In order to have a consistent offense you need to have balance. Right now we are 18th in baseball in runs scored while at the same time having the 5th best batting average with runners in scoring position. If our numbers with RISP drop at all we are quickly going to move into the bottom third of offenses.

Considering we are pretty much not going to get any HRs from 2B, SS, CF, and apparently RF for the forseeable future, we pretty much have to get some pop from at least 2 out of LF/3B/C to have a good offense.

All that being said, I'd personally go with both of them this year just to see what we have in Peraza, then you can decide who to trade based on performance.
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Royals were a game away last year. 20 homers isn't what it used to be.
 
thethe said:
I just want good hitters. If they have power wonderful. But after watching Uggla/BJ for the last few years all I want is a team that sends up 8 guys that know what the hell they are doing at the plate.
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I actually agree with this sentiment. First and foremost, it's important that we don't have bad players.

But that doesn't mean we shouldn't try to improve. We need good hitters and I don't particularly care how they are good hitters. However, it is easier to find good hitters that hit for power than it is to find players that hit .330.

I think Hart will bring a couple of hitters outside of the organization when the time is right. We were sold a bill of goods that the team would be competitive by 2017. It's unfair to assume that we would have all the pieces in place two years ahead of time.
 
zitothebrave said:
Wut? There are at a minimum 10 high quality 3B in baseball this year. Frazier, Donaldson, Machado, Arenado, Bryant, Moosetacos, Longo, Carpenter, Plouff, and Seager. Then the handful of really good 3B like Lawrie, Escobar, Prado, Beltre, Freese, Harrison, Valbuena.

There are so many good 3B, that Pablo sandoval is 20th in WAR (because of defense primarily) I can't think of a time in baseball when 3B has been stronger.
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The funny thing is, you missed the guy I like the most going forward - Rendon. I know he's playing 2B now, which is why I assume you didn't include him, but he's a 3B and should be playing there. He's definitely above-average defensively there and at best average at 2B. The Nats just have no other good 2B options right now.
 
Carp said:
Royals were a game away last year. 20 homers isn't what it used to be.
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Power may be a little lower than in the past, but 20 HRs is still very much what it used to be. The Royals getting hot at the wrong time and getting lucky as hell really doesn't change that. They were 9th in the AL in runs last year, they were not a good offense. Even then, they had three guys with 15 or more HRs. Nobody is saying we have to have three 30 HR hitters to be successful, but you need an overall decent level of pop to have a good offense.
 
auyushu said:
Power may be a little lower than in the past, but 20 HRs is still very much what it used to be. The Royals getting hot at the wrong time and getting lucky as hell really doesn't change that. They were 9th in the AL in runs last year, they were not a good offense. Even then, they had three guys with 15 or more HRs. Nobody is saying we have to have three 30 HR hitters to be successful, but you need an overall decent level of pop to have a good offense.
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Yeah, agreed. And, fwiw, those 85 Cardinals only had one big power stick, but they had 3-4 other guys with double-digit HR power (McGee hit 10 that year, plus Van Slyke, Porter, plus Cesar Cedeno and Tito Landrum on the bench). Fun fact—they had more guys slug over .400 than last year's all-or-nothing Braves.
 
You can win a World Series with a roster without homerun hitters.

It's just a lot easier if you have them.

I don't understand why anyone would argue the contrary.
 
auyushu said:
Pretty huge difference between Peraza and Prado is the amount of doubles. It's pretty common for guys who hit a ton of doubles like Prado did in the minors to have a few of them turn into homers as they mature. It's extremely rare for a guy who doesn't hit doubles or HRs in the minors to start hitting 10 HRs in the majors. I'd agree with you that it's ideal to have a player come up around their age 23-24 season though. You pretty much can get their peak value and not have to worry about extending them beyond their first deal, letting them walk at 30-32 depending on if you can get a couple of options.
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Prado hits one pitch out - the high inside fastball. Everything else he hits where it's pitched.
 
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