Even using just numbers you could've made the case Moncada was overrated. He probably wasn't ready to be called up last year. K-rate in AA was above 30%. High BABIP but a .277 avg. Definitely not a guy I want to bet against, as the tools are all there and he just looks like a monster. I think he'll be good, at worst, but he's far from a perfect prospect.
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Even using just numbers you could've made the case Moncada was overrated. He probably wasn't ready to be called up last year. K-rate in AA was above 30%. High BABIP but a .277 avg. Definitely not a guy I want to bet against, as the tools are all there and he just looks like a monster. I think he'll be good, at worst, but he's far from a perfect prospect.
Lol you can interpret what I say in any manner that fits your bias.
You have been wrong every single time you've ever disagreed with me. Every. Single. Time.
Now, about that refresher in Econ 101 I asked you about as it pertains to player trade value?
There is generally somewhat of a consensus. FV and surplus values matter. No matter how much people disagree on prospects you aren't going to expect Teheran for example to bring back a top 50 prospect or someone like what we got for Jamie. There is going to be a pretty defined prospect value that Teheran is worth and it's the Braves scouts job to determine who the best of that group is that is being offered to the Braves. IF Coppy can wrangle a better valued guy away from whoever would want Teheran then more power to him. But not everyone is Dave Stewart.
Moncada is ranked as a top if not the top prospect by virtually everybody in baseball. So if his numbers suggest he's overrated then that's a failure at scouting across the board.
Really? Name a time I was wrong when using the surplus value calculations....
I'll wait....
Southcack77
Well-known member
According to the update released today, Acuna is rated #7 in KATOH+ and Jimenez is #17 in KATOH+. You have to give data driven models the opportunity to consider the same information that you are considering.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-midseason-2017-top-100-lists/
SJ24
Well-known member
There is no way El Abusador should be that low. Albies, Tucker, and Moncada ahead of him is laughable to me. Devers, Torres, and Vladdy Jr. are in the discussion, but I'm still taking Acuna.
Scouting is undeniably the most important aspect of prospect evaluation. These "Top Prospect" lists we use to calculate a prospect's surplus value are created by compiling all the scouting data available to the author of each list.
Claiming "prospect surplus value" and "scouting prospects" are somehow at odds with each other is the most ignorant statement someone can make on this subject.
Claiming "prospect surplus value" and "scouting prospects" are somehow at odds with each other is the most ignorant statement someone can make on this subject.
Can someone pat Enscheff on the head and tell him how smart he is?
Southcack77
Well-known member
That's true.
I have to say this often now --- "This is an honest question" --- how do you think the publicly available scouting of outfits like Baseball America and Fangraphs stacks up with the data that teams use internally? Do you think that there are large differences or do you think public rankings are pretty close and mainly only vary along prospects who are close to rating borders?
My suspicion is that they are relatively close, because they are strongly informed by talking to actual professional scouts.
I did that yesterday. It's someone else's turn.
Or just keep arguing with me despite being wrong every time you do.
And another 2 posts that have nothing to do with baseball, only me.
The obsession continues...
That is exactly how I would look at it. There are obviously going to be outliers here and there. I think Gohara was a good example of that this past offseason. He was all over the place and it seems the Braves were correct on targeting him as he's starting to rise pretty hara.
My line of thinking goes back to surplus value and how it relates to trades. If these public lists are detached from most internal lists by teams then they sure do have a funny way of getting it right most of the time.
I think they are pretty close to the consensus, but some teams value guys differently. These list makers are getting their info from scouts and baseball executives...so these lists obviously reflect that data.
For example, the Cubs seemed to value Chapman's playoff contributions a great deal more than other teams. The DBacks valued guys like Swanson and Inciarte much differently than the rest of the baseball universe, and an entire FO got fired because of it. The A's seem to value MLB-ready players more so than the rest of the league. The Braves tend to value guys that have recently shown an uptick in stuff/skill more so than the rest of the league.
These discrepancies are how teams can find value. The Braves have several MLB-ready guys the A's might value more than any other team (Newk, Sims, DPete, etc), so it stands to reason the Braves could pay a portion of Gray's value with guys like that, even though no other team would be interested in those guys.