What's next?

[Enscheff]

You don't think a guy whose range is 2-3 WAR is someone we can put in CF long-term? That's basically Mallex's ceiling.

Exactly! Yes, I think a 2-3 WAR guy in CF who is controlled for 4 years is exactly the type of player a team would covet. However, the Braves won't be good for 1-2 of those 4 years. They also have a very similar player in Mallex that can probably produce 2 WAR in CF and is controlled for 6 years.

All this arguing boils down to my opinion on the matter being this:

If a "win now" team values Inciarte as a 3+ WAR guy in CF for the next 4 years, and is willing to pay accordingly, trade him. If teams value him as a ~2 WAR guy with platoon issues, keep him until Mallex has proven more in AAA and/or the MLB level.

To me, Soler plus another decent piece is a clear win for the Braves. Getting 1 top 50 guy, or 2 top 100 guys is a clear win for the Braves. Anything less and it doesn't make sense to trade him.

 

[Enscheff]

I'M SO GLAD SOMEONE SAID THIS. I like Mallex, I hope he's a baller, but I personally don't really see him being really really good. Could I be wrong? I hope so. I think what Inciarte brings is huge for us. His bat will look really good at either the top of the lineup or as a guy to turn over - good nonetheless.

This is another thing that worries me...we will see Inciarte and Aybar both miscast in the 1-2 hole, while Markakis and his .360 OBP will be buried in the 5 hole behind Garcia, because Fredi is an idiot.

 

[smootness]

I don't think Mallex and Inciarte are all that similar. Inciarte's defense is way better, and while he has the speed, there's a pretty good chance he doesn't hit the same way Inciarte does.

We control Inciarte for 5 years, not 4. And I'm ok with hanging onto him for the next couple years if that means we have a legit CF for 3 years once we're actually good.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I think the difference between Inciarte and what the cubs have is worth a ton to the cubs this year. He would do it a cheap price too.

I don't think Inciarte moves the needle in ATL. I'm thinking Mallex is a 4th OF with a special skill of speed. But I think Inciarte's value is going to go way down in ATL. Moving from the AZ park and the AZ line up is likely not good for him.

I'd flip him now. I think his value is high now.

But like most on here, I'd want Soler + another top 10 (in the Cubs system) guy. I'd want that guy to be a position player. If not I'd hope I'm wrong on Inciarte or that the Cubs at the deadline look like they are a CF from a WS run and they are desperate for Inciarte.

I would not want to include Tehran unless it was a King's Ransom.

 

[Enscheff]

I don't think Mallex and Inciarte are all that similar. Inciarte's defense is way better, and while he has the speed, there's a pretty good chance he doesn't hit the same way Inciarte does.

We control Inciarte for 5 years, not 4. And I'm ok with hanging onto him for the next couple years if that means we have a legit CF for 3 years once we're actually good.

I agree Inciarte is probably going to be a better player than Mallex. However, the Braves are building an entire team, not just filling the CF position. I would much rather have Mallex/Soler/prospect than Mallex/Inciarte.

Again, I would only make the trade if the return was sufficient. If I had to guess, I'd guess that's exactly where the trade negotiations stand with the Cubs. The Braves said they want Soler plus someone else (possibly from a list of 2-3 guys), and the Cubs are weighing that offer against their other possibilities. Both teams know it's a win for the Braves, so the Cubs have to decide just how "win-now" they want to be.

 

[smootness]

I agree Inciarte is probably going to be a better player than Mallex. However, the Braves are building an entire team, not just filling the CF position. I would much rather have Mallex/Soler/prospect than Mallex/Inciarte.

Again, I would only make the trade if the return was sufficient.

I just don't see Mallex as an answer. I think he would be a hole on a potentially contending team. I see Inciarte as an answer. So unless we're getting a clear answer in return, I'm not sold on giving up Inciarte at this point. I'd rather stick with the answer we have and try other ways to add the corner OF.

 

[clvclv]

Exactly! Yes, I think a 2-3 WAR guy in CF who is controlled for 4 years is exactly the type of player a team would covet. However, the Braves won't be good for 1-2 of those 4 years. They also have a very similar player in Mallex that can probably produce 2 WAR in CF and is controlled for 6 years.

All this arguing boils down to my opinion on the matter being this:

If a "win now" team values Inciarte as a 3+ WAR guy in CF for the next 4 years, and is willing to pay accordingly, trade him. If teams value him as a ~2 WAR guy with platoon issues, keep him until Mallex has proven more in AAA and/or the MLB level.

To me, Soler plus another decent piece is a clear win for the Braves. Getting 1 top 50 guy, or 2 top 100 guys is a clear win for the Braves. Anything less and it doesn't make sense to trade him.

"2 Top 100 guys" plus Inciarte is what the Braves got for Miller - Inciarte's not coming close to getting you 2 Top 100 guys.

 

[Chico]

This trade has been talked about so much I don't think it has a chance of happening now.

 

[smootness]

"2 Top 100 guys" plus Inciarte is what the Braves got for Miller - Inciarte's not coming close to getting you 2 Top 100 guys.

The D-Backs drastically overpaid, we know that. We've evidently asked for 'Soler plus' from the Cubs for him, and I'm sure if that 'plus' wasn't something legitimate or fairly significant, the deal would already be done. So it appears that is actually what we're asking for, and the Cubs seem to at least be considering it.

 

[smootness]

This trade has been talked about so much I don't think it has a chance of happening now.

This is probably true. I do think we've used talks with the Cubs to put information out there publicly before trying to pull off other deals. For example, I believe we used the Cubs to push Miller's value up, then moved in on the D-Backs when we had the chance.

So it's possible we don't really think the Cubs will be a trade partner but are trying to move the market up to pull off something else.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

His AAA numbers were compiled playing in Reno. I live in Reno. The altitude is 4000', and the wind at Aces Stadium is constantly howling out to straightaway RF. The OF, especially in CF and RC, is gigantic. It's like a baby Coors Field with a constant wind blowing out. Basically, any stats from guys playing in Reno are essentially worthless.

Inciarte's only other time performing well against LHers was in 2012 at A ball. So if that's what you want to use as a basis for thinking he can hit LHers at the MLB level, I suppose you can go right ahead. Comparing it to Soler dominating at the AA/AAA level (even in a small sample) is just silly though.

I'm not saying Soler is definitely going to become a 5+ WAR middle of the order beast, while Inciarte is destined to be a 4th OFer that needs to be platooned with Rajai Davis. What I'm saying is it's foolish to think of Inciarte as some sure fire CFer of the future, while Soler is nothing but a huge risk. Inciarte's realistic WAR range is 2-3, while Soler's is 1-5+. Both have risk, but Soler has a much wider range of potential outcomes.

you totally missed my point.. I said it would be disingenuous to say Ender had splits in AAA that were great, but his MLB numbers were bad.. but look at his minor league splits.. then turn around and say.. soler numbers in the majors were horrible and you can't count his numbers in the minors.. Just saying you need to keep your argument the same..

remember, I am in the camp of trading Ender.. but then I think most are if the price is right.. I have a feeling the FO wants to keep him to see what they have..They are going to value him as high as Miller was.. or there about close to it..

 

[bravesfanMatt]

"2 Top 100 guys" plus Inciarte is what the Braves got for Miller - Inciarte's not coming close to getting you 2 Top 100 guys.

this ^^

that is why I don't know if the Braves will trade Ender.. they are hoping to get the same return that they got for Miller.. when he was just 1/3 part of that package for Miller.

I don't like ender for Soler.. but I don't think the cubs like Soler + for Ender.. If Coppy can pull off a Soler + top 50..then the dude is a freaking genius.. and Our beloved Heyward would have helped the Braves far more than he could ever have on the field.

 

[Chico]

This is probably true. I do think we've used talks with the Cubs to put information out there publicly before trying to pull off other deals. For example, I believe we used the Cubs to push Miller's value up, then moved in on the D-Backs when we had the chance.

So it's possible we don't really think the Cubs will be a trade partner but are trying to move the market up to pull off something else.

If I had to bet on it, I'd say that's the case. I think we're looking to get a pitcher and hitter back from someone.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I just don't see anyone who is so close and needs a CF like the cubs. Really the Cubs need another starter and a CF which makes us look more like a fit....so it probably won't happen. Too obvious.

Surprised we haven't heard more chatter about Aybar. Maybe the FO thinks we will be good for a while or maybe other teams know Aybar isn't that good. I was wondering if he'd be better to move at the deadline, but you figure he's only a need at the deadline if someone is injured.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I just don't see anyone who is so close and needs a CF like the cubs. Really the Cubs need another starter and a CF which makes us look more like a fit....so it probably won't happen. Too obvious.

Surprised we haven't heard more chatter about Aybar. Maybe the FO thinks we will be good for a while or maybe other teams know Aybar isn't that good. I was wondering if he'd be better to move at the deadline, but you figure he's only a need at the deadline if someone is injured.

not sure what the plans for Aybar are going to be.. not sure if they are just happy to keep him and bridge him to Swanson.. but he really doesn't fit the team.. His value can't be that high at the deadline. What team will be looking for a slap hitting/good defensive SS for the stretch run. I guess someone might for Defensive purpose.. but with only half a year of control left.. he wouldn't bring back any more value than if we went ahead and traded him now..and probably less IMO..

 

[Russ2dollas]

not sure what the plans for Aybar are going to be.. not sure if they are just happy to keep him and bridge him to Swanson.. but he really doesn't fit the team.. His value can't be that high at the deadline. What team will be looking for a slap hitting/good defensive SS for the stretch run. I guess someone might for Defensive purpose.. but with only half a year of control left.. he wouldn't bring back any more value than if we went ahead and traded him now..and probably less IMO..

That was my thought.

Worried the FO thinks Aybar means we can challenge for 500. B/c that is crazy.

Again Cubs just seem to make too much sense. Needs at CF and P. Have a ton of hitting prospects who are ready or almost ready and are blocked.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

That was my thought.

Worried the FO thinks Aybar means we can challenge for 500. B/c that is crazy.

Again Cubs just seem to make too much sense. Needs at CF and P. Have a ton of hitting prospects who are ready or almost ready and are blocked.

the Cubs and Braves could be best friends this off season.. however, it would mean trading JT and like many others, not sure I want to go down that road. But then our young starters need to learn somehow.. and if means a few games where they get their heads bashed in.. so be it.. But there are pages and pages of deals and debates that revolved around Cubs and Braves dancing..

however, not sure what that has to do with Aybar..

 

[Chico]

I just don't see anyone who is so close and needs a CF like the cubs. Really the Cubs need another starter and a CF which makes us look more like a fit....so it probably won't happen. Too obvious.

Surprised we haven't heard more chatter about Aybar. Maybe the FO thinks we will be good for a while or maybe other teams know Aybar isn't that good. I was wondering if he'd be better to move at the deadline, but you figure he's only a need at the deadline if someone is injured.

I could see the Giants, Rangers, Cardinals, and Orioles all interested.

The FO is probably hoping Aybar's 2016 is more like his 2014, at least the first half anyways. There will be a market for Aybar in July.

 

[smootness]

That was my thought.

Worried the FO thinks Aybar means we can challenge for 500. B/c that is crazy.

Again Cubs just seem to make too much sense. Needs at CF and P. Have a ton of hitting prospects who are ready or almost ready and are blocked.

Aybar is here because we have to field a SS and the FO doesn't want the team to completely collapse going into the new stadium. I think they realize we're not going to be good this year, but if we can improve on last year with something around 75 wins and then be able to point to the young guys like Swanson, Newcomb, and Albies going into the new stadium, we're in a better spot to sell it to the fan base. And those increased revenues are huge in regard to our plans for the future.

Plus, we can always flip Aybar at the deadline, where you're actually more likely to get a better package for him.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Aybar is here because we have to field a SS and the FO doesn't want the team to completely collapse going into the new stadium. I think they realize we're not going to be good this year, but if we can improve on last year with something around 75 wins and then be able to point to the young guys like Swanson, Newcomb, and Albies going into the new stadium, we're in a better spot to sell it to the fan base. And those increased revenues are huge in regard to our plans for the future.

Plus, we can always flip Aybar at the deadline, where you're actually more likely to get a better package for him.

is that really a need going into the playoffs?? a half of season rental of a slap hitting short stop?? Just doesn't seem to scream, putting my team over the top..