Sherman: Braves offered Heyward 80M after 2013

thewupk said:
Really? Predictions for Heyward this offseason is that he would be eyeing a contract close to 200 million. If Heyward rebounds and ends the season anywhere close to last year overall he is going to get megapaid. There is no doubt in my mind about that.
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Really? There is a growing consensus it seems that Heyward is never going to grow as a hitter. Part of the prior appeal of Heyward was he was an elite defender that could become an elite hitter. I don't think teams will pay a premium for above average offense when elite defense in the corner OF isn't a rare commodity. I would rather pay Parra 8 million a year and get 90% of what Heyward offers.
 
chop2chip said:
Really? Their is a growing consensus it seems that Heyward is never going to grow as a hitter. Part of the prior appeal of Heyward was he was an elite defender that could become an elite hitter. I don't think teams will pay a premium for above average offense when elite defense in the corner OF isn't a rare commodity. I would rather pay Parra 8 million a year and get 90% of what Heyward offers.
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Yup...why exactly is the perception that Heyward is that much more valueable than guys like this.

Heyward needs to have a better season than last year at the plate if he is even thinking about more than 15 per year.
 
thewupk said:
Of course. Anybody who doesn't buy into defensive metrics will have this opinion.
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Im big on defense, it wins championships but im still not paying an average hitter with elite defense 20-25 mil a year.
 
Offensive output trumps at a corner outfield Spot. If Jason was a centerfielder I'd agree. But right now you just aren't going to pay someone 20M if they aren't an impact hitter.
 
yeezus said:
again, you'd be hard-pressed to find a FO that is willing to give more to Heyward than Freeman. you can't just dismiss that. if a majority of professionals who have jobs and money riding on this agree that Freeman is worth more, he probably is. and if you don't believe Freeman would get more, you're being dishonest. what you're saying doesn't make sense. if Jason were worth more he'd get more. who do you personally think would get mor on the open market?
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So, in the case you lay out, we can't dismiss how much the open-market pays a player when considering his value; but, if Heyward is payed a heap of cash this offseason, suddenly we can dismiss how much the open-market pays a player when considering his value? Hmm.
 
chop2chip said:
Really? There is a growing consensus it seems that Heyward is never going to grow as a hitter. Part of the prior appeal of Heyward was he was an elite defender that could become an elite hitter. I don't think teams will pay a premium for above average offense when elite defense in the corner OF isn't a rare commodity. I would rather pay Parra 8 million a year and get 90% of what Heyward offers.
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Yes. This past offseason is not right now. This is a what have you done for me lately society so with Heyward struggling to start the year then of course there is going to be a growing concern about him. Which is why I said if he rebounds and ends the season similar to last year.

And elite defense anywhere is a rare commodity. As far as Para goes he had one insane year defensively and has been crap since. So no, Para is not 90% of what Heyward offers.
 
thewupk said:
Yes. This past offseason is not right now. This is a what have you done for me lately society so with Heyward struggling to start the year then of course there is going to be a growing concern about him. Which is why I said if he rebounds and ends the season similar to last year.

And elite defense anywhere is a rare commodity. As far as Para goes he had one insane year defensively and has been crap since. So no, Para is not 90% of what Heyward offers.
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Parra had 3 excellent years before his insane year. Since then he has regressed based off the metrics. But I don't watch him so I don't know if the eye test would support that.

Defense, like offense, regresses, at a quicker rate than offense even. If Parra, who was just as excellent as Heyward, can have a quick rapid decline, then ask yourself if you would be willing to invest a steep premium when there exists a strong possibility that his defense might disappear like Parra.

I like Heyward. I think 2012 Heyward is a top 10 player in baseball. But a .260/.340/.410 corner outfielder isn't worth 150 million. I don't understand why you aren't concerned about his bat as the rest of baseball seems to be.

Rare commodity wasn't the right term. A valued commodity would have been better way to phrase it.
 
thethe said:
Offensive output trumps at a corner outfield Spot. If Jason was a centerfielder I'd agree. But right now you just aren't going to pay someone 20M if they aren't an impact hitter.
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So if Jason was a centerfeilder he would be worth 20-25 million a year? Even if he lost his defensive advantage and was just ok instead of elite?
 
chop2chip said:
Parra had 3 excellent years before his insane year. Since then he has regressed based off the metrics. But I don't watch him so I don't know if the eye test would support that.

Defense, like offense, regresses, at a quicker rate than offense even. If Parra, who was just as excellent as Heyward, can have a quick rapid decline, then ask yourself if you would be willing to invest a steep premium when there exists a strong possibility that his defense might disappear like Parra.

I like Heyward. I think 2012 Heyward is a top 10 player in baseball. But a .260/.340/.410 corner outfielder isn't worth 150 million. I don't understand why you aren't concerned about his bat as the rest of baseball seems to be.

Rare commodity wasn't the right term. A valued commodity would have been better way to phrase it.
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It's all player dependant. Yeah a lot of players defense falls as they get older especialy once they are past 30. Yes generally their hitting will stay with them until their mid 30's. Of you can be BJ Upton and lose it when you come to Atlanta. Personally I think Heyward is a good bet to be elite defensively until around 30. Will he? Nobody knows. Nobody knows when a player will or will not fall off the edge in their abilities.

As far as his bat goes. I am concerned about his power. He's never been the same since getting hit in the face. He may never regain that back.

The one thing that Heyward has on his side that those like Para and most others do not is that he is hitting FA at a super young age. Which means whoever signs him will be getting all of his prime years. There is an advatnage to that in that half the contract won't be in your 30's when it's likely dead weight which we see a ton of. And that should drive his price up as well. Technically could be overpaying but the chance of dead money at the end is reduced.
 
thewupk said:
So if defense wins you championships and someone is the best at their position you wouldn't want to pay them a lot of money to help you win?
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Clearly you value Heyward more than me.

He's all-world defensively but im not sure thats worth 150-200+ mil if his offense doesnt help out.
 
thewupk said:
It's all player dependant. Yeah a lot of players defense falls as they get older especialy once they are past 30. Yes generally their hitting will stay with them until their mid 30's. Of you can be BJ Upton and lose it when you come to Atlanta. Personally I think Heyward is a good bet to be elite defensively until around 30. Will he? Nobody knows. Nobody knows when a player will or will not fall off the edge in their abilities.

As far as his bat goes. I am concerned about his power. He's never been the same since getting hit in the face. He may never regain that back.

The one thing that Heyward has on his side that those like Para and most others do not is that he is hitting FA at a super young age. Which means whoever signs him will be getting all of his prime years. There is an advatnage to that in that half the contract won't be in your 30's when it's likely dead weight which we see a ton of. And that should drive his price up as well. Technically could be overpaying but the chance of dead money at the end is reduced.
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Your concern that he may never get his power back is the entire point of the reason why Heyward isn't an elite player anymore. I don't think his defense will disappear. He's an athlete who keeps himself in excellent shape. Barring injury he shouldn't fall apart, but he is going to regress. Defense isn't one of those things where players improve upon as they age past their mid 20's.

I just don't see the point of going all in on a player whose best asset is entering its decline (it's the equivalent of signing an offensive player at age 30). At 100 million? Sign me up. At 150 million? He's not worth it to me.
 
Even Andruw Jones fell off a cliff at around 30. Defense is not something I'm paying for in free agency.
 
thewupk said:
Yes. This past offseason is not right now. This is a what have you done for me lately society so with Heyward struggling to start the year then of course there is going to be a growing concern about him. Which is why I said if he rebounds and ends the season similar to last year.

And elite defense anywhere is a rare commodity. As far as Para goes he had one insane year defensively and has been crap since. So no, Para is not 90% of what Heyward offers.
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But if he's 2/3 of Heyward and you pay him $8 million, that would mean you should pay Heyward around $12 million. I frankly don't know what Heyward is going to get paid. My guess is one of the deep stats team with a big budget will pay him a lot. I'm thinking Red Sox.
 
50PoundHead said:
But if he's 2/3 of Heyward and you pay him $8 million, that would mean you should pay Heyward around $12 million. I frankly don't know what Heyward is going to get paid. My guess is one of the deep stats team with a big budget will pay him a lot. I'm thinking Red Sox.
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But is he even 2/3's of Heyward? Or half for that matter? Most projects don't even have him as being a 2 WAR player. Heyward generally projects at 4+ WAR.
 
thewupk said:
But is he even 2/3's of Heyward? Or half for that matter? Most projects don't even have him as being a 2 WAR player. Heyward generally projects at 4+ WAR.
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Because of defense.

Parra isnt as good as Heyward on defense, but not an insane gap either.
 
thewupk said:
So you think Heyward is going to start loading up on chicken fried steak and twinkies and gain 50 pounds?
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No but if he starts to decline athletically at 29-30 and you pay him 150-200 mil, and his defense is worse, where is the value in that?
 
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