Swanson

thewupk said:
So with less than a month to go Bregman is sitting at an ISO of .194. 124 WRC+ and 3.2 fWAR on the season. As I said 51 XBH. Power is more than homerun totals.
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Wow...that's awesome!!!

What's even more amazing is that I predicted that the Astros, Gnats, and Dodgers were going to make the playoffs BEFORE the season started - without my computer!!!

(Sorry - center-cut fastballs, ya know???)
 
Enscheff said:
The effect of batting 8th is interesting. For 2017 in the NL:

Batting 7th: 2658 PAs with a line of .244/.313/.394

Batting 8th: 2567 PAs with a line of .253/.326/.405

Assuming the 7th and 8th place batters are nearly equivalently talented hitters, it looks like batting in front of the pitcher in the NL boosts a hitter's OBP by 10-15 points. Then again, all offensive numbers for the 8th hole hitter are higher by ~10 points, which doesn't make sense with the pitcher "protecting" the 8th place hitter.
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Of course it makes sense. Pitchers generally cannot hit, so there are frequent situations where the opposing pitcher will pitch around the 8th hitter to get to the pitcher, principally whenever there are two outs and first base is open. This is why I've always thought that if the guys an NL team is considering to hit in the 7th and 8th slots in the batting order, all things being pretty much equal, the manager should put the guy who exhibits more patience at the plate in the 8-hole to at least turn the line-up over if nothing else.

I think you need to take your analysis further and determine whether the OBP is due to walks or hits. I'm guessing (and I'm only guessing) it is due to walks. I'd also check game situations and see if there is a marked differential in OBP in a situation where the 8th hitter will be followed in all likelihood by a pinch-hitter.
 
50PoundHead said:
Of course it makes sense. Pitchers generally cannot hit, so there are frequent situations where the opposing pitcher will pitch around the 8th hitter to get to the pitcher, principally whenever there are two outs and first base is open. This is why I've always thought that if the guys an NL team is considering to hit in the 7th and 8th slots in the batting order, all things being pretty much equal, the manager should put the guy who exhibits more patience at the plate in the 8-hole to at least turn the line-up over if nothing else.

I think you need to take your analysis further and determine whether the OBP is due to walks or hits. I'm guessing (and I'm only guessing) it is due to walks. I'd also check game situations and see if there is a marked differential in OBP in a situation where the 8th hitter will be followed in all likelihood by a pinch-hitter.
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It's due to both walks and hits at about the same rate. You can see that BA is higher as well.

If you assume that only H and BB are contributing to the OBP, then it's roughly 590 H and 242 BB for the 7th place hitters, and 586 H and 251 BB for the 8th place hitters. Those are %s of:
7th - 22.2% H, 9.1% BB
8th - 22.8% H, 9.8% BB

So I think we know what leads to more BB for the 8th place hitter. The question is, what leads to more H? Are they getting easier pitches to hit? Maybe. Maybe teams are simply putting better hitters in the 8 spot for some reason? Or maybe it's just a weird year.
 
My tiny bit of research assumed the 7th and 8th hitters were essentially equal in talent. That was most likely not a good assumption.

According to this article:

http://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-benefit-of-batting-eighth/

When comparing batters who hit in both positions of the lineup, they found a 28 point boost in OBP and a 61 point boost in SLG. We see somewhat similar splits with Swanson's small sample career between batting 8th and everywhere else (mostly 2nd and 7th).

They pretty much chalk it all up to a lower strike out rate because batting in front of the pitcher is lower leverage...the exact opposite of "protection" causing a better batting line from a hitter.
 
smootness said:
It's due to both walks and hits at about the same rate. You can see that BA is higher as well.

If you assume that only H and BB are contributing to the OBP, then it's roughly 590 H and 242 BB for the 7th place hitters, and 586 H and 251 BB for the 8th place hitters. Those are %s of:
7th - 22.2% H, 9.1% BB
8th - 22.8% H, 9.8% BB

So I think we know what leads to more BB for the 8th place hitter. The question is, what leads to more H? Are they getting easier pitches to hit? Maybe. Maybe teams are simply putting better hitters in the 8 spot for some reason? Or maybe it's just a weird year.
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Probably situational. If a runner is in scoring position and first base is open, we likely see pitchers being relatively careful with an 8th place hitter. 8th place hitters generally aren't power hitters, so my guess is with no one on base and two outs, pitchers tend to work closer to the plate. At the same time, in the latter situation, pitchers may bear down on the 8th place hitter to start the next inning with the opposing pitcher at the plate. I think it would be difficult to establish a correlation because the approach of both the pitcher and hitter would likely be determined by each individual situation (score, state of game, etc.). Interesting points by all here.
 
clvclv said:
Wow...that's awesome!!!

What's even more amazing is that I predicted that the Astros, Gnats, and Dodgers were going to make the playoffs BEFORE the season started - without my computer!!!

(Sorry - center-cut fastballs, ya know???)
Click to expand...

Good job bro
 
Since his return...

.333/.452/.452

wRC+ = 143

18.3 bb%, 16.5 k%

BABIP = .413

fWAR = 1.1 (0.4 on year)

bWAR = 1.2 (0.5 on year)

On and enscheff, dansby's walk rate has gone up by moving up in the lineup from 8th
 
but dansby's xfwobs% has moved down in the last two days as he's taken some walks that clearly wouldn't have been walks in half of the mlb stadiums. scrub.
 
A year ago we thought that the pitching would be good and our hitting would suck. Now it's looking like the opposite. Swanson, Albies, Freeman, Inciarte, and Acuna is looking like a very very good foundation for the offense. If we can add a hitter like say Donaldson we'd be in excellent shape.
 
msstate7 said:
Since his return...

.333/.452/.452

wRC+ = 143

18.3 bb%, 16.5 k%

BABIP = .413

fWAR = 1.1 (0.4 on year)

bWAR = 1.2 (0.5 on year)

On and enscheff, dansby's walk rate has gone up by moving up in the lineup from 8th
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That walk rate is incredible. He's stopped swinging at sliders outside the zone almost completely. This is the adjustment we waited for Frenchy to make for four years and Dansby did it in three weeks in AAA.
 
chop2chip said:
That walk rate is incredible. He's stopped swinging at sliders outside the zone almost completely. This is the adjustment we waited for Frenchy to make for four years and Dansby did it in three weeks in AAA.
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Obviously dansby won't maintain this pace; but if he's even close to this, I think he should be the leader for leading off next season. As bad as Swanson was to start, his obp is .324 on the year... pretty remarkable
 
chop2chip said:
That walk rate is incredible. He's stopped swinging at sliders outside the zone almost completely. This is the adjustment we waited for Frenchy to make for four years and Dansby did it in three weeks in AAA.
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It certainly appears that way. Here is his Swing% at the 93 sliders he saw before being demoted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

compared to his Swing% at the 87 sliders he has seen since being promoted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

There is no more red down and away. That is excellent progress.

However, it goes further than that. Swanson is also hitting sliders he swings at better than he was.

Consider his Contact% on the last 93 sliders he saw before being demoted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

compared to his Contact% on the 87 sliders he has seen since being promoted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

He literally went from being a guy that couldn't touch a slider, to a guy that handles them just fine...all in a matter of a few weeks in AAA.
 
Braves organization identified he needed to move in on the plate more. Same thing they begged heyward to do for years. They both were probably hesitant after getting hit in the face albeit in different scenarios.
 
Enscheff said:
It certainly appears that way. Here is his Swing% at the 93 sliders he saw before being demoted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

compared to his Swing% at the 87 sliders he has seen since being promoted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

There is no more red down and away. That is excellent progress.

However, it goes further than that. Swanson is also hitting sliders he swings at better than he was.

Consider his Contact% on the last 93 sliders he saw before being demoted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

compared to his Contact% on the 87 sliders he has seen since being promoted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

He literally went from being a guy that couldn't touch a slider, to a guy that handles them just fine...all in a matter of a few weeks in AAA.
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That's great for Dansby, and it's really helpful to see that data. Thanks.
 
Enscheff said:
It certainly appears that way. Here is his Swing% at the 93 sliders he saw before being demoted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

compared to his Swing% at the 87 sliders he has seen since being promoted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

There is no more red down and away. That is excellent progress.

However, it goes further than that. Swanson is also hitting sliders he swings at better than he was.

Consider his Contact% on the last 93 sliders he saw before being demoted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

compared to his Contact% on the 87 sliders he has seen since being promoted:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

He literally went from being a guy that couldn't touch a slider, to a guy that handles them just fine...all in a matter of a few weeks in AAA.
Click to expand...

This is a very good post. Thanks for digging into the numbers. Hopefully its a trend that can be explained by the adjustment to move closer to the plate on not just noise. It's very promising nonetheless.
 
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